Simplifying the vaccine: Why a new COVID booster each fall could be the norm moving forward

[marmar]

(Salon) Ever since the first iteration of the COVID-19 vaccine, it seemed like no one was entirely sure how long to wait between booster shots — or exactly how many we should be getting.

Indeed, years later, all that is clear is that one series of shots is not enough. That's because SARS-CoV-2 is not the kind of virus (nor vaccine) that provides durable — meaning, lifetime — immunity; rather, it is, like influenza, a vaccine that confers only short-term immunity. Hence, like influenza, it seems that a new vaccine for COVID-19 each year, based on newly circulating variants, is the best public health protection.

Hence, as the coronavirus has mutated over the last couple of years, vaccines have evolved. But how vaccines will be doled out in the future, and exactly when, remained unclear.

Now, we finally have some vision of the future of COVID vaccination from government public health officials. This week, the Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC), an independent advisory committee for the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), held a meeting providing insight on what an endemic COVID-19 future might look like. Specifically, the committee voted in favor of phasing out the primary two-shot series that targets the original SARS-CoV-2 strain and vaccinating individuals moving forward with the latest formulation that targets more recent subvariants. .............(more)

https://www.salon.com/2023/01/27/simplifying-the-vaccine-why-a-new-booster-each-fall-could-be-the-norm-moving-forward/

[2naSalit]

1. Perhaps...

They should just have people do it every 12 months on a staggered schedule so everyone stays protected and there is no need for the mass application situations we had in the past. I am fine with keeping up to date with an annual vaccine, not willing to tempt fate in my later years. At lest not with that sort of illness, it's a hard way to go and I'm think it's nothing to be passive about.

[progree]

2. I'm still not getting why we were recommended to get the last booster 2-4 months after the previous

one, and now they've decided once a year is enough.

Has the Coronavirus slowed down its rate of mutation? Have the studies showing substantial reduction in effectiveness after about 4 or 6 months been proven false? I'll admit I'm having trouble keeping up with the latest.

Could the reason be that the vast majority of people apparently just aren't willing to get a booster every 6 months or so anymore, so they decided let's try for once a year? As of January 8, only 18% of American adults have received the bivalent booster. That means most of the other 82% haven't received any boosts in a year or more, even ones who are up-to-date except for not having gotten the bivalent booster.

Edit Changed the "most of the other 72%" to "most of the other 82%". Thanks SoCalDavidS

[SoCalDavidS]

3. 82%

82% haven’t gotten booster, not 72%.

[progree]

4. Thanks! I fixed it. Maybe I was using base 9 math or something 🙃

Or I was unconsciously trying to be optimistic.

[SoCalDavidS]

7. Pretty Sad, Isn't It?

Sad, but not surprising. I grew to learn how truly fucked up a country we are these last 3 years.

[Pobeka]

6. Yeah, that's odd. Seems like an every 6 months would make more sense for now.

Unless they could somehow come up with a "timed release" method, which seems unlikely for 1 year period.

[ananda]

5. Vaccines work.

I played bridge with a partner who had Covid,
and never got a sign of it.

Vaccines work.

[Johnny2X2X]

8. Thank you

Vaccination still offers protection from infection. You’re still 3-5 times less likely to get Covid if fully vaxxed. And it will be milder if you do get it. And long Covid is also reduced significantly in the fully vaxxed.

There’s this idea, even on DU, that all the vaccines do now is prevent death and serious Covid. They still offer significant protection from infection.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7104e2.htm

[progree]

9. Vaccines are great but I'd caution that they are not absolute protection

Last edited Sat Jan 28, 2023, 05:24 PM - Edit history (5)

and that each variant that gains dominance is more infectious than the last, both for the unvaxxed and for the vaxxed. I keep that in mind when I do have to go out grocery shopping or whatever -- being fully vaxxed/boosted I'm maybe 3X lower risk of infection than the unvaxxed, but OTOH this thing keeps getting more and more infectious, so I don't really know what my risk of infection is compared to the early (pre-vax) days, but my guess is that it's not much different. Only that the consequences of an infection are much less than in the early days.

As an over-65 year old with at least one additional risk factor, I do worry about the consequences. If I was middle-aged or younger and healthy, I'd probably be a lot less worried.

NY Times U.S. page, as viewed 1/28/23
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html

Scroll to the "Rates for vaccinated and unvaccinated" section with the average daily cases and average daily deaths graph

CASES: latest is Dec 18-24: Unvaxxed has 3X (2.76X if one does the math with the incidence rates that pop up) the risk as fully vaxxed. (For much of 2022 it ranged from 2X to 3X in rounded numbers)

DEATHS: latest is Nov 27-Dec 3, unvaxxed have 5x (5.2X if one does the math) the risk as fully vaxxed

Number in ()'s are the ratios I calculated at the end point from the pop-up that pops up.

About this data -- Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ( https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#rates-by-vaccine-status ). This data was first made available on Oct. 19 2021, and is expected to update monthly. The C.D.C. releases the data as a weekly figure per 100,000 and is presented here as a daily average per 100,000 for consistency with other population-adjusted figures on this page. See the notes on the C.D.C.’s page for more information.

See below for the CDC covid-data-tracker page --

@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@

CDC Covid tracker rates by vaccine status - https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#rates-by-vaccine-status - as viewed 1/28/23

Scroll down to the graph. Realize that on the left side are two radio buttons where one can choose "deaths" or "cases"

The incidence rates below (CDC) are WEEKLY rates (i.e. cases per 100,000 per WEEK), in contrast to the NY Times numbers which are average DAILY rates. Whichever is used doesn't affect the relative risk of vaxxed vs. unvaxxed etc., but when looking at the incidence rates per 100k, the CDC numbers look much higher than the NY Times. This is why).

LATEST ON CASES (age 5 and older) is 12/18/22: Incidence per 100,000 population: Unvaxxed 271, Vaxxed w/o updated booster: 98, Vaxxed with updated booster: 82. So relative to vaxxed with updated booster: Unvaxxed: 3.30 X, Vaxxed w/o updated booster: 1.20 X.

LATEST ON DEATHS (age 5 and older) is 11/27/22: Incidence per 100,000 population Unvaxxed 1.79, Vaxxed w/o updated booster: 0.35, Vaxxed with updated booster: 0.16. So relative to vaxxed with updated booster: Unvaxxed: 11.2 X, Vaxxed w/o updated booster: 2.20 X (so get that bivalent booster -progree).

The box below the graph says: In November 2022, people ages 5 and older and vaccinated with an updated (bivalent) booster had:

12.7X lower risk of dying from COVID-19 compared to unvaxxed people and 2.4X lower risk of dying from COVID-19 compared to people vaxxed without the updated (bivalent) booster.