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[WarGamer]

This message was self-deleted by its author (WarGamer) on Tue Feb 14, 2023, 01:12 AM. When the original post in a discussion thread is self-deleted, the entire discussion thread is automatically locked so new replies cannot be posted.

[Irish_Dem]

1. Jeebus God.

[Tetrachloride]

2. Verification is the way, more often than not.

[Wicked Blue]

3. Where are they getting 500K men from?

Last I heard, they were having trouble rounding up 300K.

[raging moderate]

4. Maybe the same place Hitler got them: junior high schools. Or the equivalent.

Maybe that word "men" should have quotation marks around it.

[milestogo]

27. Not volunteers, that's for sure.

[Igel]

30. That's what Putin said they'd be recruiting.

Feel free to claim that because Putin said it, it's the truth.

Some of the troops were already called up; every year there are conscripts under law, based on age and student status, plus voluntary "contract" (read that "enlisted&quot soldiers.

Then there's always the error bars on such numbers.

[Shermann]

5. This could be a tactical reaction to the Abrams and Leopard tank threat

That capability will take a few months to come online, whereas the Russians can preemptively strike now.

[underpants]

7. Yeah they don't want to tussle with those

I think you just MLRS (or whatever it’s called now) at some pinchpoint.

[Model35mech]

19. It seems right on time meteorlogically to me

Avg Mar temps in Donetsk are in the 40's. Pretty much like northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin.

By mid-March things in Donetsk will turn into serious MUD TIME. No one will be able to move heavy equipment off-road. That presents the attacker with the dilemma of travelling down paved roads. Roads the Ukrainians very well know. Ambushes will follow, again, just like last year.

The inclusion of rather greater air-assets would be a correction from last year's plan. But combined arms assaults with mostly green troops? I don't know how that will go. And, of course, Ukranians are experienced with and still have manpads. Helicopter losses could be heavy for Russia, and jets are very expensive to lose.

[FirefighterJo]

6. One small detail with last year

Ukraine this time is organised and focused. Still, will be hell. But pooty is defining insanity again.

[keithbvadu2]

20. More genius strategy acc to Trump.

[Buckeyeblue]

8. I don't think we can stand by and watch Ukraine get crushed

[WarGamer]

44. I don't think we ARE standing by watching...

Doing more means WW3.

[Buckeyeblue]

47. I get that we are providing billions in weapons

But is that enough? And would it mean WWW III? I know last year at this time we thought so and then we watched as Russia fought with old, broken down equipment and a less than eager army. I'm not sure if they have any real allies that would want to jump into a war involving NATO.

[NullTuples]

10. The basis of the story appears to be reputable & the source is Ukraine itself a week ago?

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/ukraine-warns-russia-troops-imminent-offensive-feb-24-putin-invasion-rcna68751

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/3841230-ukraine-warns-russia-massing-500000-troops-on-border-for-offensive/

[CentralMass]

11. A few A10 Warthogs would really be useful.

[lapfog_1]

13. so would a few tactical nukes...

we could always say "well, they were left over from the Soviet era, we had nothing to do with it."

That won't happen... but it sure would be nice to have a magic button that "kills all invading Russian soldiers".

[Igel]

31. Don't know about that.

There might be isotope signature differences between the two sets of enriched uranium or plutonium.

[lapfog_1]

36. It isn't going to happen.

but I wish that NATO would actually send a few trained divisions into Ukraine... with all the armor, missiles, aircraft, and naval ships... and dare Putin to either withdraw or actually carry through on his nuke threat.

We have been there before and the USSR backed down. I think Russia would back down again.

But it's been a very long time since "duck and cover".

[News Junkie]

70. Those are 30+ years old - the Air Force has wanted to get rid of them for years

Congress is finally letting them.

[CentralMass]

72. There was a lot politics and lobbying in that decision.

The right tool (weapon) for the job. When you need a tank killer to wipe out a convoy of tanks use a tank killer not a $1.5 trillion dollar boondoggle.

A Google search on the subject of the F35 vs the A10 will turn up references like this.

Is the F35 better than the A10 ?

That rationale does not withstand scrutiny. An effectiveness analysis based on results from a survey of joint terminal attack controllers indicates that the A-10 vastly outperforms the F-35 in providing close-air support (CAS), a critical requirement for future conflicts against terrorists and insurgents.

Effectively the Air Force no longer provide close-air support.

[DetlefK]

12. "The Sun" is a sensationalist right-wing rag. All about the clicks, likes and views.

How is Russia supposed to pull THAT MUCH FORCE out of their ass without withdrawing elements from other parts of the frontline?

[WarGamer]

45. Removed that source from the OP...

For those that are distrustful of the link... as am I... it's all corroborated and backed up by reliable sources including the Ukrainian Gov't itse

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/02/08/ukraine-russia-counteroffensive-abrams-tanks-putin-war/


The Ukrainian military estimates that Russia already has 1,800 tanks, 3,950 armored vehicles, 2,700 artillery systems, 810 Soviet-era multiple-rocket-launch systems such as Grad and Smerch, 400 fighter jets, and 300 helicopters ready for the new wave of attacks, the official said.

[Kingofalldems]

14. Wow. Complete RW rag and you post it here.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Sun_(United_Kingdom)#History

Trashes British progressives:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Sun_(United_Kingdom)#The_Sun_and_the_Labour_Party

[WarGamer]

40. The story links to FP which is left leaning... enjoy

For those that are distrustful of the link... as am I... it's all corroborated and backed up by reliable sources including the Ukrainian Gov't itself

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/02/08/ukraine-russia-counteroffensive-abrams-tanks-putin-war/


The Ukrainian military estimates that Russia already has 1,800 tanks, 3,950 armored vehicles, 2,700 artillery systems, 810 Soviet-era multiple-rocket-launch systems such as Grad and Smerch, 400 fighter jets, and 300 helicopters ready for the new wave of attacks, the official said.

[Mysterian]

15. Watch them get wiped out and mowed down

by the skillful and brave Ukranian defenders, armed with the best Western hardware.

[Maraya1969]

16. Wait. These numbers sound insane. Russia has already started a draft

to get soldiers to fight and they are taking them straight off the street. And at the same time they have "hundreds of thousands" of solders ready to send in fresh? I find that hard to believe since we have been hearing for a year about how depleted Russia was.

Wat the Sun said:

"RUSSIA has hundreds of thousands of soldiers, thousands of tanks, and hundreds of warplanes preparing for a new assault, Ukraine has warned."

[bluestarone]

17. If true, somebody is assisting them.

I DO NOT believe this!

[brewens]

18. The deathtraps are why on one had I have no problem with giving our tanks and Bradleys to the

Ukrainians, but on the other wonder if it's a good idea for them. The Russians are supposed to have effective anti-tank rockets and missiles. Maybe not as good as what the Ukrainians have been killing their tanks with but still dangerous. If the Russians don't have their guys well equipped and trained with those, they are out of their minds.

It's gotten so you can't even use heavy armor unless you control the sky and have eliminated the ground anti-tank threats. If you've done that, you don't really need the tanks. Tanks are best for fighting other tanks but if your air and infantry can kill them just as easy, leave it to them. We might not even ever use a big heavy armored unit in a war again so why not give them to the Ukrainians? I just don't want to see a lot of them destroyed and crews killed.

[moonshinegnomie]

21. theres a good chance russia doesnt have 1800 tanks left

a monitoring group says they had 3k operational tanks at the start of the war and may have lost 1/2 of them or more

https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/09/europe/1000-russian-tanks-destroyed-ukraine-war-intl-hnk-ml/index.html

[WarGamer]

41. The Ukrainian Gov't provided those estimates

For those that are distrustful of the link... as am I... it's all corroborated and backed up by reliable sources including the Ukrainian Gov't itself

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/02/08/ukraine-russia-counteroffensive-abrams-tanks-putin-war/


The Ukrainian military estimates that Russia already has 1,800 tanks, 3,950 armored vehicles, 2,700 artillery systems, 810 Soviet-era multiple-rocket-launch systems such as Grad and Smerch, 400 fighter jets, and 300 helicopters ready for the new wave of attacks, the official said.

[uponit7771]

75. +1,

[localroger]

22. This smells very dubious

The Russians have already lost a lot of their trained and seasoned military people at all levels. They are now relying more on mercenaries and untrained schlups who are being given guns that are so old and rusty thay often don't even work. If they throw 500K of such people at Ukraine, they will end up with 490K casualties and 10k successful desertions. As for the hardware, they're already relying on WWII era stuff they're taking out of mothballs and buying back from North Korea. Putin may have told them to do something like this, but it's very unlikely the actual military could no matter how much it wants to.

[WarGamer]

46. Those numbers come from the Ukrainian Gov't

[sdfernando]

23. You cannot amass that many troops, artillery, and aircraft without the U.S. knowing about it.

If this is true Biden knows about it and I'm sure is doing what he can for Ukraine.

[Xolodno]

24. Hard to say.

It could be true, then it could be a ruse from our side to drum up support. Small cracks have been showing in NATO.

[CentralMass]

26. Really ? Which members ?

[Xolodno]

28. There's been some articles, but they don't get much tractions obviously.

That would defeat the narrative.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/20/us/politics/nato-alliance-ukraine.html

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/06/07/nato-ukraine-russia-war-alliance-reform-geopolitics-military/

Don't have the link, but Zelensky wanted to address a music festival in Italy via live stream. But Right, Center and Left Politicians objected. Also read somewhere that public opinion in the Czech Republic and Slovenia (maybe a couple of others? Can't remember) want an end to the crisis via a ceasefire.

War fatigue could be creeping in, its probably not what you want to hear, but the "rainbows and unicorns" idea that Ukraine would roll right in and retake Crimea, well, was just that. Their counter offensive sputtered out a couple of months ago.

[ananda]

25. Where are they comng from?

I thought Russia was struggling.

[Igel]

32. They've been pushing Ukraine back around Bakhmut.

Slow but fairly steady.

They're pushing hard against Vuhledar and the current buildup is around Kremina up north.

I'd be anxious about an assault against Kharkiv or Kyiv across the Russian or BR borders.

[Aristus]

29. Where in Almighty Hell would Russia get 1,800 tanks?

A Tamiya model shop?

I think Russia shot its wad after digging out those old T-62 tanks from storage. What are they going to do now? Say "Just kidding!" and field 1,800 of the most advanced tanks in their arsenal? And who are they going to crew them with? 12 year-olds?

This breathless rod-massage of Putin by The Sun doesn't pass the smell-test.

Next they'll be telling us their Page 3 girls will be leading the assault.

[WarGamer]

42. Read the article... the numbers come from Ukraine.

For those that are distrustful of the link... as am I... it's all corroborated and backed up by reliable sources including the Ukrainian Gov't itse

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/02/08/ukraine-russia-counteroffensive-abrams-tanks-putin-war/


The Ukrainian military estimates that Russia already has 1,800 tanks, 3,950 armored vehicles, 2,700 artillery systems, 810 Soviet-era multiple-rocket-launch systems such as Grad and Smerch, 400 fighter jets, and 300 helicopters ready for the new wave of attacks, the official said.

[Takket]

33. where the hell did they get 500,000 people for this???

[NickB79]

34. 500,000 Russians? HIMARS says "mmmm, yummy"

M30A1 rockets loaded with 182,000 ball bearing turn massed troops into hamburger.

And we've given Ukraine these already.

[panader0]

35. Bullshit. Putin cannot muster all of that.

They have a tank shortage, can't recruit or train soldiers, etc. If Ukraine echoes Putin's threat, it may be
they believe they can get more aid that way. Putin's big invasion will flop. Thes are just my opinions.

[Just_Vote_Dem]

37. The SUN? Murdoch's rag?

[WarGamer]

43. Here's a better source... FP is left leaning... endorsed HRC in 2016

Same text though because it's all quoted from Ukrainian Gov't sources.

For those that are distrustful of the link... as am I... it's all corroborated and backed up by reliable sources including the Ukrainian Gov't itse

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/02/08/ukraine-russia-counteroffensive-abrams-tanks-putin-war/


The Ukrainian military estimates that Russia already has 1,800 tanks, 3,950 armored vehicles, 2,700 artillery systems, 810 Soviet-era multiple-rocket-launch systems such as Grad and Smerch, 400 fighter jets, and 300 helicopters ready for the new wave of attacks, the official said.

[Just_Vote_Dem]

50. Thanks for the backup links

Do you think this is going to end soon? Is it true that there are some indications that this could drag out for many more months, or years even?

[niyad]

38. And pedo gaetz wants to end all aid to Ukraine. I wonder what putler has on him?

[Buckeyeblue]

39. If this were true it would represent 90% of Russia's military

They would be sitting ducks. NATO would have a perfect chance to eliminate just about all of Russia's force.

[GenThePerservering]

48. I think Russia has run out of "waves"

and whatever they do send, they'll all be stuck in the mud by the time they arrive just like what happened last late winter/early spring.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

49. Putin does not have the resources described in OP

Link to tweet

[WarGamer]

51. Using Twitter as a Primary Source isn't very wise...

If you READ the OP and links you'd see that the estimates of troops, tanks, av and aircraft came from the UKRAINIAN GOV'T.

Care to rephrase your post or possibly just delete it?

I understand your mistake... you INFERRED that since their losses were so high they couldn't assemble that kind of force but your inference ignored reliable reporting from many sources including The Ukrainian Gov't and even comments by Zelenskyy himself.

lol...

Oh and hit and run posting... cut n pasting social media posts doesn't make good discussion.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

57. Do you really believe the numbers in the OP? That is cute and adorable

If you read my post, you will see that the estimate of Russian losses is also from Ukrainian sources. Russia's losses in this war are being documented. Here is the latest estimate of Russian losses which show that Russia has lost another 9 tanks.

Link to tweet

If Russia had tanks in good condition, they would have bene used. It is common knowledge in the real world that Russia is not strong on maintaining equipment.

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

I admire the Ukrainians and I also realize that Ukraine is negotiating for additional resources. I personally support the US, Germany and other allies sending tanks to Ukraine. Urkaine underestimated the danger of a Russian invasion last year and seem to be overcompensating.

If you really believe that Russia has working tanks to be used against Ukraine, then I have some clients with stock in a company called Enron that they would like to unload.

[WarGamer]

58. Using Twitter for source material is like using Wikipedia for Graduate level classes.

The Ukrainian GOVERNMENT has provided those troop estimates.

The GOVERNMENT including Zelenskyy.

And you have tweets... try harder, Goth.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

59. Do you ever tire of being WRONG?

The Ukranian government also provided the estimated Russian losses including the fact that 3267 Russian tanks have been lost. Again, the tweet is from the Ukranian government. These are significant losses and Russia is not going to be able to replace these tanks due to sanctions. Evidently Putin is running out of high-tech missiles and Russia's only tank factory is closed due to a lack of parts. Some Russian planes are using OTC GPS units instead of miliary units. Putin is being forced to use appliance parts for his "war" machine

Link to tweet

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/05/11/russia-sanctions-effect-military/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=wp_main

U.S.-led sanctions are forcing Russia to use computer chips from dishwashers and refrigerators in some military equipment, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said Wednesday.

“We have reports from Ukrainians that when they find Russian military equipment on the ground, it’s filled with semiconductors that they took out of dishwashers and refrigerators,” Raimondo told a Senate hearing, noting that she recently met with Ukraine’s prime minister......

In her Senate remarks, Raimondo also pointed to recent reports that two Russian tank manufacturers have had to idle production because of a lack of components. The White House, too, has previously highlighted those reports, saying Uralvagonzavod and Chelyabinsk Tractor Plant have halted production.....

Previous research has shown Russia’s military has long relied on western electronics. Russian military drones shot down over Ukraine in recent years have been full of Western electronics and components, according to investigators from the London-based Conflict Armament Research group, which dissected the drones.

Russia has been relying on Iranian drones lately because of a lack of missiles. Part of the latest deliveries are air defense systems that should help some with these drones.

As for the buildup, you may want to either read the article cited in your OP.

..... The Pentagon has described Russian troops that have already been rushed to the battlefield to plug up defensive holes as “ill-equipped, ill-trained, [and] rushed,” according to a senior U.S. military official.

According to Ukrainian estimates, Russia has lost in less than one year more than 2.35 times the number of troops as the US lost in 10 years of the Vietnam war. Putin has to try to make some gains and there will be some sort of counter offensive in the spring. Due to sanctions, Putin's efforts will be hampered, and I doubt that the number of tanks and other equipment will be in good working condition both due to sanctions and the fact that Russia is not good at maintaining its equipment.

I am glad that the US, Germany, the UK and others are providing Ukraine with more equipment. Some of the Ukrainian estimates cited in your OP are designed to encourage further contributions from the US and others.

Again, if you really believe the estimates cited in the OP, I know some client who have Enron stock that they will be happy to sell you.

[WarGamer]

60. You're so predictable...

Even your insults...

Do you ever tire of being wrong?
It's so cute you think...
Great Cartoon!

You've been using the same 3rd Grade insults to other posters for years...

As I've asked you before... just TRY discussing topics with other DU'ers without resorting to Tweets or using the thoughts or opinions of OTHERS to make YOUR point.

I wish just ONE TIME... ONE TIME I could discuss something with you and actually hear YOUR opinion and logic come through.

This is a discussion forum, discuss.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

62. LOL. Thank you for the laughs

It is you who is unable to discuss/argue the issue. I was a college debater and I am a member of the bar. Relevance and argument theory are part of both debate and legal training and my responses to your arguments are based on the fact that you have not really advanced a cogent argument or claim that would withstand even rudimentary scrutiny. You posted some estimates from the Ukranian government in the OP and then attacked actual casualty and equipment loss assessments from the same Ukrainian government. Your own source admitted that the Russian troops being amassed are poorly trained and equipped. You seem to think that your opinions on these issues are actual facts that are in effect arguments.

There has been reports that Russia has run out of equipment and due to sanctions will have a hard time replacing this equipment. Russia has been using computer chips from washing machines and civilian GPS units in Russian planes. Russia has been sending ancient tanks into battle because all of the newer tanks have been destroyed or captured. You are welcome to believe that there 1800 battle ready tanks available for use in the supposed spring offensive but the facts cast doubt on that claim.

It seems that based on actual casualty reports and reports on equipment losses, the supposed spring offensive has started. Here is the casualty and equipment loss reports from the Ukrainian government from two days ago.

Link to tweet

Here is the report from last night.

Link to tweet

Russia is losing a high level of troops and tanks over the last four or five days. It may well be that the dreaded spring offensive has indeed started early.

You are welcomed to believe the estimate provided by the Ukranian government you set forth in the OP. There are other facts that cast doubt on such estimate. I have seen reports that Putin has ordered his forces to retake all of the territory that has been recaptured by Ukranian forces. I doubt that Putin will be successful in these efforts given the level of losses in manpower and equipment that has been suffered.

I am worried about Ukraine in that there is a cadre of GOP assholes who want to cut off support to Ukraine. Putin may be able to win by helping these assholes and TFG gain power. McCarthy had to cave to these assholes to win the speaker position and I do not trust McCarthy or the GOP.

Link to tweet

I doubt that Putin will be able to amass sufficient trained troops and properly maintained equipment to win. Putin's best hope is that TFG and the GOP undermines US support for Ukraine.

I am happy to debate/discuss the issues but you need to support your claims with facts that are relevant to the discussion. I can support my arguments with facts and sources including material from the same Ukranian goverment that you cited in your OP.

[WarGamer]

64. More tweets.

ALL irrelevant.

And BTW the Kyiv Independent is NOT the Ukrainian Gov't. Those estimates are certainly inflated.

Bottom line, no matter how hard you try to gish gallop...

The estimates above are from the ACTUAL Ukrainian Gov't including Zelenskyy himself.

Your opinions about washing machine chips are based on stories from May 2022...

And yet...

The Russians KEEP COMING.

And if you look beyond Twitter... real sources are confirming a massive Russian buildup.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/01/world/europe/ukraine-russia-offensive.html

Ukrainian intelligence estimates that Russia now has more than 320,000 soldiers in the country — roughly twice the size of Moscow’s initial invasion force. Western officials and military analysts have said that Moscow also has 150,000 to 250,000 soldiers in reserve, either training or being positioned inside Russia to join the fight at any time.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/02/09/russia-ukraine-battlefield-positions-war/

[LetMyPeopleVote]

66. Again, thank you for the laughs

It is really cute and adorable that you think that you are supporting your arguments. You object to an Ukranian paper reporting information given to such paper by the Ukranian government. If you had read and understood the post, you would have seen the following:

These are the indicative estimates of Russia’s combat losses as of Feb. 11, according to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

These are estimates from the Ukranian government being reported by an Ukrainian paper. Thank you for the laughs.

Here are some more facts for you to not understand or ignore

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

I love the way that you are unable to deal with facts presented. If you really believe that Russia has 1800 fully operational tanks that are combat ready, then you really need to invest in a company called Enron.

[Kennah]

52. It's also in the NY Post, so it must be true

[WarGamer]

53. It's based on quotes from Ukrainian Gov't officials.

Are you saying the Ukrainians are in the Russian propaganda camp?

Really?

[Kennah]

54. No, I would say that both sides are engaged in propaganda

But the Ukrainian game is more on point than the Russian game.

We should have been giving equipment to Ukraine months and years ago, but the Ukrainians appear to be pressing for more gear, with or without valid claims.

[WarGamer]

55. So you think the Ukrainian Gov't is exaggerating the threat...

To get more military aid and faster?

I guess we'll see.

My knee jerk response is that seems outside the possibility of what the Russians can assemble at this point BUT... they've had a year and reports say that arms factories have been working 3-shifts for the last 6+ months.

Plus I think the Ukrainian estimates of Russian losses have been... optimistic at best.

We really won't know until the shells start flying.

[Kennah]

56. It's nuanced

The threat from Russia is very real, but the immediate numbers seem exaggerated.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

63. Russia's Massive Offensive

The facts cited in the OP are amusing but are misleading at best. This so-called build up is not that real and will not change anything. Here are some facts that contradict the so-called facts in the OP.

Link to tweet

https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-15?sd=pf

One story that seemed to take off, was that the Russians had massed a huge force not only of newly trained soldiers, but also tanks and aircraft and that they were poised to mount a hammer blow attack on Russian forces. This article in Foreign Policy, might have been the most extreme example. The Russians had supposedly put together 1800 tanks, 700 aircraft and hundreds of thousands of new troops. Ukraine, on the other hand, didn’t have enough and the Russian assault would start long before new NATO-standard tanks arrived......

All of this sounded extremely alarmist, and much of it seemed to run counter to everything that has been shown for the past year. Russian advances, when they are successful, are incremental, their losses in tanks and aircraft when they engage the Ukrainians are extremely high (especially for tanks) and so far we see no sign of successful combined-arms Russian warfighting which would allow for such an amazing reversal in the course of the war......

All I can say, is that I see no indication whatsoever that the Russians could attempt such a major, air-armor breakout and exploitation. I don’t see how they could supply it, I don’t see any indication that their army knows how to execute it, and I cant see how the Ukrainians could be caught by surprise were the Russians to attempt it.

1) Logistics. The large Russian depots are still located out of Himars range. A reminder of how this has worked from this excellent thread.

Link to tweet

?s=20&t=21PNCUakmhXZBO0uHjeO4w
What that means is close to the front the Russians have to rely on small, scattered depots and constant truck supply, shuttling from their larger depots far behind the lines. Supplying a breakthrough under those conditions would test the most efficient army in the world with an large number of up to date trucks, oilers, trailers etc. The Russian army is not this. One of the reasons we have seen no Russian exploitation (and only one Ukrainian exploitation for that matter) is that getting supplies forward in this war is really difficult. Tanks, APCs, etc, gobble up fuel and ammo. If you cant get it in regular supply to advancing forces, they will stop moving and in that case become a burden not a liability. So you would need to have a large store of trucks near the breakout point to head down the road with all those hundreds, even thousands of tanks. Its not happening.......

The US would be able to detect any large build up of this type and get that info to the Ukrainians quickly. There would be no surprises—indeed if the Russians did mass vehicles for a major offensive, the Ukrainians would more than likely inflict more and more Vuhledars.

So the idea of some massive Russian mechanized steamroller, which spread like wild-fire last week has little in reality to recommend it. The Ukrainians, who seemed to feed the story (anonymously) earlier in the week, also seemed to understand that this story was doing them no favors (it really wasn’t). In fact, stories of growing Russian power were exactly the things those wanting Ukraine to be forced into a bad peace deal instantly latched onto to make their point. The New York Times published a number of op/eds saying Russia is now in a better shape to win the war, including this terribly wrong-headed understanding of military power......

As long as Ukraine has enough ammunition (always the key consideration) these massive Russian offensives should be containable. Indeed, assuming Ukraine does have enough ammo, its preferable to see the Russians expending their resources in this wasteful way. It would be worse for the Ukrainians if the Russians were intelligently collecting their resources.

The facts cited in the OP do not appear to be accurate and the real experts are not worried about this buildup.

Facts are a fun thing to use in these discussions.

[WarGamer]

65. Who to believe, LMPV's random tweets or actual REAL sources.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/02/09/russia-ukraine-battlefield-positions-war/

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/01/world/europe/ukraine-russia-offensive.html

KYIV, Ukraine — Moscow has massed hundreds of thousands of troops in Ukraine and is targeting dozens of places a day in a markedly stepped-up barrage of artillery attacks. Ukrainian forces are struggling to hold their ground on a 140-mile stretch in the east, awaiting tanks, armored vehicles and other weapons systems from the West.

Ukrainian officials have been bracing for weeks for a new Russian offensive that could rival the opening of the war. Now, they are warning that the campaign is underway, with the Kremlin seeking to reshape the battlefield and seize the momentum.

“I think it has started,” President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine said this week.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

67. Again, thank you for the laughs

You may actually want to read the material posted. The material posted is from an actual expert in this field. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phillips_O%27Brien

Phillips Payson O'Brien (born 1963) is an American historian and professor of strategic studies at the University of St Andrews, Scotland. He was formerly at the University of Glasgow where he ran the Scottish Centre for War Studies.

His books include the revisionist history How the War Was Won: Air-Sea Power and Allied Victory in World War II (2015) which concluded that superiority in the air and on the sea on an "Air-Sea Super Battlefield" of thousands of miles, rather than battles on land, determined the outcome of the war. He is also the author of The Second Most Powerful Man in the World: The Life of Admiral William D. Leahy, Roosevelt's Chief of Staff (2019) which re-evaluated the life of Leahy and argued that he was far more influential than had previously been recognized.....

Academic career
O'Brien was a Mellon Research Fellow in American history, and a Drapers Research Fellow at Pembroke College, University of Cambridge,[1] where he completed his PhD in British and American politics and naval policy. He credits fellow American-born British-resident historian Zara Steiner with being a major influence on his work.[2] His dissertation was published by Praeger in 1998 as British and American Naval Power: Politics and Policy, 1900-1936.[3]

He was subsequently lecturer in modern history at the University of Glasgow where he also ran the Scottish Centre for War Studies.[4] There, he edited and contributed to Technology and Naval Combat in the Twentieth Century and Beyond (2001), which focussed on technical changes in making naval policy,[5] and The Anglo-Japanese Alliance, 1902-1922 (2004) which was based on papers given at the Anglo-Japanese Alliance 1902 Centenary Conference in 2002.[6] In 2012, he gave evidence to the Scottish Affairs Select Committee of the British House of Commons on the future siting of British nuclear weapons in the event of Scotland leaving the United Kingdom.[4]

In 2016, O'Brien moved to the University of St Andrews[1] where he is professor of strategic studies.[7]

The chief foreign affairs commentator for the Financial Times agrees with this analysis

Link to tweet

One of the top MNSBC national security analysists agrees

Link to tweet

Again, you really should read up and try to understand the material being posted.

[WarGamer]

73. And more tweets....

I've had years of observation to reinforce my opinion.

I've NEVER seen you make YOUR OWN OPINION OR ARGUMENT without relying on tweets or the opinions of OTHERS or sometimes... cartoons.

I've NEVER seen you produce an original post. We would like to see YOUR OWN logic, your own intellectual firepower and responding to other posters with you usual grade school insults or responding with a Tweet isn't debate or discussion.

But I will give you credit for the immaculate gish gallop. If I tell you the sky is blue, you'll strenuously argue back that the Cherry Trees are blooming and Avatar Way of Water is up to 1.4 Billion and Salmon gets tough if overcooked... and then you'll post a Tweet about rabbits then a cartoon and finish by insulting people.

When someone makes a point that proves you wrong you charge off into a different direction trying to make it APPEAR you're right about something.

Having a discussion with you is like pinning Jell-O to a wall. I don't know why I try... I should just block you.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

78. Again, your posts are really funny

Thank you for the laughs. Again, I live in the real world. I am advancing arguments based on facts. One does not advance an argument without facts supporting such claim. Your opinion without any facts would be rejected in a court or in a debate.

Link to tweet

In the real world, one supports their claims/arguments with facts. For example, I saw the MSNBC military analyst that I cited on TV two or three times today. In the real-world, opinions of uniformed laypersons are not given any credence and would not be admissible in court. You have not been able to support your opinions with any facts. I thank you for the laughs.

Here are some more facts for you to ignore or not be able to refute.

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Ukraine is using this buildup for its own reason

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Russia is using untrained troops and these troops are being killed at a record rate. In addition to the estimates from Brittish intelligece here are some facts for you to ignore

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https://edition.cnn.com/2023/02/13/europe/russia-ukraine-vuhledar-donetsk-fiasco-intl/index.html

The scenes are chaotic: Russian tanks veering wildly before exploding or driving straight into minefields, men running in every direction, some on fire, the bodies of soldiers caught in tank tracks.

Russian military bloggers are calling it a fiasco, and worse.

These scenes have been recorded by Ukrainian military drones over the past two weeks around the town of Vuhledar in Donetsk, eastern Ukraine, where successive Russian assaults have failed......

But the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) says that poor leadership is only part of the problem: the “highly dysfunctional tactics are far more indicative of the fact that the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade is likely comprised of poorly trained mobilized personnel than of poor command.”

The UK defense ministry reported Sunday that an uptick in Russian casualties in places like Vuhledar “is likely due to a range of factors including lack of trained personnel, coordination, and resources across the front.”

I do not fault the Ukrainians for playing up the Russian build up but so far this spring offensive has been a flop. BTW, my arguments do show that I have strong opinions on these issues.

Have fun with your opinions that are NOT supported with facts

[WarGamer]

80. Just LOL... still arguing things that I didn't say.

You've wasted a lot of time and pixels arguing my central point, which is... Ukrainian Gov't officials have estimated Russian strength.

Nothing you've posted refutes that... probably because those numbers are from the UKR government.

You're so desperate to argue with people that you gish gallop all over the place, aimlessly trying to make some sort of point.

Bye. Done here.

[Kaleva]

68. So far, the Russians are taking very heavy casualties with little gain

Military experts, commenting on the actions of Russian soldiers in action,as observed by drones, are generally saying said troops are obviously poorly trained.

A bright side for the Ukrainians is that the fresh reserves haven't been forced to go to the front yet to contain Russian break throughs because there haven't been any. UKR is withdrawing here and there but in an orderly, planned manner to new defensive positions.

I have also yet to see any report suggesting that the Russians have gained air superiority.

The Russians window of opportunity is closing as the rainy season approaches.

[WarGamer]

74. I think most observers suspected as much...

But this whole thread was just about the NUMBERS claimed by the Ukrainian Gov't.

Some here don't believe them I guess.

[Emrys]

69. You seem to favour information filtered via major newspaper outlets.

The hazards of doing this could be demonstrated by referring to the run-up to the Iraq War, when MSM outlets such as the NYT didn't exactly cover themselves in roses.

Phillips OBrien is a respected voice in this field who just happens to post on Twitter. I could mention some others who have proven generally to have good sources and judgement proven by a track record and also use Twitter as their main outlet, such as Thomas C. Theiner. Journalists from various mainstream outlets also use Twitter and can often be more candid and up-to-date there than in their conventionally published articles.

Anyway, it does look like the anticipated moves by the Russian Federation forces have started. So far, they're not going particularly well ...

[jeffreyi]

76. Just saw this, retweeted from angry staffer

Who seems reliable. May the following be so!

Link to tweet

?t=jNfC_kRZ2aRu_xxM7GPuQg&s=19

[WarGamer]

77. This war of choice has damaged DECADES of Russian progress at building their country.

It will take decades and new leadership to return to Jan 2022 status.

Really really sad.

RE: the graph, Russian GAS exports dropped dramatically in 2022... but OIL exports actually increased.

[Poiuyt]

79. How many of the 500K troops will be properly trained?

That's why Russia is getting their asses handed to them. The troops just don't know what they're doing.