My analysis of Chinese weapons possibly on the way to Ukraine.

[WarGamer]

We've recently seen news reports from the US Military that the PLA may be considering selling weapons to Russia for use in Ukraine.

I think I may have some more insight into this.

Let's start.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/antony-blinken-china-russia-lethal-support-ukraine-face-the-nation/

Secretary of State Antony Blinken told CBS News on Saturday that China is actively considering providing lethal support, including weapons and ammunition to aid Moscow in its war against Ukraine.

"We've been concerned from day one about that possibility," Blinken said in an interview with "Face the Nation" moderator Margaret Brennan on Saturday. Pressed on the type of lethal aid China is considering, Blinken spoke in general terms.

For those not watching closely, this seems to come out of the blue.

But earlier we received hints from Beijing.

Here are some quotes from Chinese news sources:

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202302/18/WS63f019faa31057c47ebaf7cb.html

Chinese envoy urges NATO to stop 'being a troublemaker'
By MINLU ZHANG at the United Nations | chinadaily.com.cn | Updated: 2023-02-18 08:20

The Chinese envoy to the United Nations emphasized on Friday that the Ukraine crisis is "related to NATO's constant eastern expansion since the Cold War", and he urged NATO to abandon the Cold War mentality and stop "being a troublemaker".

"The Ukraine crisis is, in essence, the culmination of security conflicts in Europe closely related to NATO's constant eastern expansion since the Cold War," Zhang Jun, China's permanent representative to the UN, said at the UN Security Council Briefing on Ukraine.

"Pursuing absolute security and political exclusion and containment by force against a specific party is the very crux of the reason why Europe is in the security plight," said Zhang, adding that if following such a mindset, "Europe, and even the whole world, will be caught up in greater turmoil."

Clearly China feels that the Western support for Ukraine is a destabilizing factor in their part of the World. Potential regime change in Russia could have bad consequences for China, especially after closer strategic relations between China and Russia have been finalized recently.

So... one may ask, what can China do to aid Russia in Ukraine?

I tend to read quite a few pure Military journals and analysis think tank websites.

Here's my take.

Arguably the greatest "game changer" in the Western aid to Ukraine may be the American HIMARS system.

HIMARS is a guided rocket system mounted to mobile truck(ish) platforms which offer high mobility, rapid deployment and fire control. Basically the HIMARS system can move quickly, shoot and then move again to avoid return fire.

MLRS, multiple launch rocket systems are nothing new. They're 80 years old at least and the Russians are the "grand-daddy" of MLRS development since the WW2 Katyusha rockets.

Right now the Russians are fielding several MLRS systems in Ukraine, but the difference is twofold. One, the HIMARS fires GPS guided rockets and two, the range is up to 300km.

Russia has the BM-30 system that fires guided rockets but at a range of just 90km.

To reach out from farther away the Russians must rely on cruise missiles launched from aircraft or ships.

So then I got to thinking... over the past 3 years the Chinese have been extensively testing their new PCL-191/PHL-16 system. What is a PHL-16? Well, to be honest, it's a Chinese copy of HIMARS.

It's brand new... they've been in production for just 4 years and they're the "talk" of Asian military analysts.

Recently they were used extensively in military drills near Taiwan.

https://eurasiantimes.com/chinas-version-of-himars-bombard-taiwan-strait/

So how do the Chinese HIMARS stack up? Pretty good actually. Range over 500km with a great variety of warheads including ballistic missiles.

https://eurasiantimes.com/china-tests-himars-like-rocket-system-that-can-strike-high-altitude-indian/

Termed as a mystery weapon system at the time of its unveiling in 2019, the Type PCL191 rumbled through the streets of Beijing on the back of large trucks with nearly perfect anonymity, in contrast to other military systems on exhibit in Beijing that had their names branded along their flanks.

The system can carry two 750mm Fire Dragon 480 tactical ballistic missiles, each with a range of up to 500km, or eight 370mm (1412 inch) rockets, each with a range of 350km (220 miles), according to the Chinese military journal Modern Ships.

According to Zhou Chenming, a researcher with the Beijing-based Yuan Wang military science and technology think tank, the rocket launch system’s range has been increased to 500 km. As a result, it can strike any Indian military installation along the Line of Actual Control, the de facto border.

Link to tweet

?s=20

So in summary... the Chinese see an imbalance on the battlefield from Ukraine, primarily from HIMARS systems. They have a new weapons system they'd LOVE to see tested in combat (before their own Taiwan adventurism) and it's literally a counter to a NATO strategy that China sees as a threat to regional stability.

That's all for now... my prediction is the focus between Moscow and Beijing... the fear of Blinken is the supply of PHL-16 to Russia.

JMO of course... based on what I have read.

[dutch777]

1. China probably would like to test their systems against ours and under real conditions but....

...while it puts them in a proxy situation similar to ours thru Ukraine against Russia, allows them to thumb their nose at a us a bit, they do risk western countermeasures. While we may not sanction China or India for buying Russian oil and gas, it might be a different situation if it is about major weapons systems. If the west said we will limit trade with China to 90% of last year's totals, that would hurt. And it can be scaled. Shall we do just 80% next? Ouch.

[WarGamer]

2. To add...

The reason why this is significant...

The HIMARS is wonderful because you can strike 300km behind the enemy lines or strike the front line from 300km away.

It's tough to kill a HIMARS battery because 1) Your own artillery and MLRS can't reach them. 2) Because it takes aloooong time to get aircraft airborne and launch long range air-ground missiles. By then the HIMARS is gone.

But if you have a MLRS HIMARS-clone with 100km more range... you can use it in counter-battery meaning when the launch from a US HIMARS is detected, through UAV or even satellite... the Chinese HIMARS clone can return fire, possibly before the HIMARS has moved on.

The Chinese will see this as erasing a material advantage given to Ukraine by the West...

And sanctions won't hurt them. Any sanctions that would hurt China would throw the world into a recession or worse.

Quick Reminder, China holds ~$1T in US Debt.

China can order it's civilians to eat rice and drink Tea for a couple years... Americans have a temper tantrum at the ballot box when their local McDonalds is out of Nuggets.

[OnDoutside]

3. Taiwan.

That's what this is about.

[WarGamer]

4. Indeed.

The Ukraine War and US-China tensions makes a good smoke screen... and an opportunity to flex muscles in Ukraine, a bonus for the PLA.

The only question is when they hit Taiwan...

The Chinese don't make rash moves. I'd be very surprised if they made a move before 25.

[OnDoutside]

5. I suspect that they'll keep on talking about it, to keep the great unwashed

inside, but I'm sure Russia's misadventures have made them wary, although the reality is that they would have a similar value on human life. That said, this is a relatively risk free move to throw a bit of muscle around, to lay a marker down to the West.