If you try to be optimistic Trump will be indicted and convicted, when is the soonest you think...

[Silent3]

...he'd be behind "bars" -- by which I mean in custody of some sort, even if it's just house arrest.

I still have a hard time at my most optimistic (which isn't very) thinking that would happen in much less than two years.

Why?

I think the Georgia case is what's closest to fruition, and even then, I think the legal profession's idea of indictments coming "soon" isn't what I'd call "soon". I'd be shocked (pleased, but shocked) if "soon" was a month from now. Probably more like 3-6 months from now, since yet another grand jury has to weigh in.

Once an indictment is issued, how long until a trial? My admittedly non-expert opinion is that the powers-that-be will decide Trump would have to be given at least six months to prepare for trial. Trump will then fuck around and get a few more months of delays.

Once a trial begins? What do you think? 3-6 months for that?

Once a conviction is reached? Sentencing could and should be fast, but look at how long Steve Bannon's sentencing was delayed after his conviction on contempt-of-Congress charges. So, another 3-6 months?

Once sentenced, how long would Trump be given to report to "jail" (whether that be real jail or something much cushier). Bannon is still loose doing podcasts, isn't he? Left free while he appeals, and he was given something like four months to show up (as I recall) even if he didn't appeal.

So, with a generous allowance for when Trump turns himself in, and being left free until appeals all the way up to the SCOTUS run their course? How many more months will that take?

Hard to imagine he will be in jail before November 2024, that's for sure.

[BigmanPigman]

1. I'm a realist.

I don't expect it in my lifetime. The more things change the more they stay the same. $$$ rules the in the good ol' US and that ain't changing any time soon. The GQP has the $$$ and they intend on hanging onto every red cent.

[Silent3]

2. Since I'm 60 right now, I'd at least expect it in my lifetime...

...as long as it happens at all, that is.

[BigmanPigman]

4. I am 60, too.

My health is not great and I have been very, very, VERY patient for 6 LOOOOOONG years. I do not expect to see justice though, even if I live to be 104 like my grandmom.

[Silent3]

8. The hypothetical here is that Trump is, one way or another, indicted and convicted

IF that happens, jailing couldn't possibly be dragged out 44 years. Not even I am that pessimistic!

By the way, what event started your clock running six years ago? The start of Trump's first (and hopefully only) term?

While that was certainly a crime in some sense of that word, in and of itself that wasn't something Trump could be indicted and convicted for.

[BigmanPigman]

12. We knew he was in cahoots with Putin since 2015.

That was the first gigantic crime. The first in a series of serious crimes. Twice impeached but is he in jail...nope! He is running again for POTUS..woohoo. He sure learned his lessons.

[Scrivener7]

16. I've been waiting for him to be held accountable since I watched his

corruption in NYC construction in the 80s.

Jack Smith and Fanni seem different than the others he has gone against for 40 years.

For the first time in all that time, I'm thinking "maybe" but I'll believe it when I see it.

[Silent3]

17. My sense of the odds of Trump being held accountable, at least for *something*, have gone up...

...but the best time line still seems like a farce. You try to steal the Presidency of the United States, in a pretty blatant fashion, and maybe, just maybe, you'll be in jail 4-5 years later?

[Scrivener7]

18. Oh, absolutely. A coup attempt and we're "dotting i's" two years later.

It's ridiculous.

But also, I just don't see jail. I'd love it if it happened, but I just don't think it will.

I bet Eastman goes to jail, though.

[Matthew28]

3. What are the chances that an indictment

and he ends up either in prison or so weaken that he drops out after a few primaries.?

[Silent3]

5. An indictment before the primaries... possible. But in prison before the primaries?

I don't see a ghost of a chance of matters moving that quickly.

[SoCalDavidS]

6. I Have Better Odds Of Winning Powerball Than Teflon Man Has Of Going To Prison Or House Arrest

I have better odds of winning even if I don't actually purchase a ticket, than he does of going to jail.

[Silent3]

9. I'm very pessimistic about that too, but please try to stick to the hypothetical being proposed

Taking it as a given that Trump is indicted and convicted, then what? How long until he's in "jail" of some sort?

[SoCalDavidS]

11. He'll Be Let Out On Appeal

So under the hypothetical that he is convicted, I'd say 2 years before he is in "jail."

But again, we're more likely to be attacked by aliens, than he has of ever coming remotely close to "jail."

[usonian]

7. Behind bars?

He will face his maker first.

[Silent3]

10. Yes, the idea of Trump dying before he might possibly be locked up seems like...

Last edited Wed Feb 22, 2023, 10:23 AM - Edit history (1)

...one of the more probable outcomes.

[Chainfire]

14. Agreed

Meaning that he would cheat the legal system again.

[msongs]

13. one suspects most republicans would be secretly happy to see trump hauled away nt

[Silent3]

15. Oh, yes, but unfortunately I don't think that will speed things along much. n/t

[Nay]

19. That scum will never see the inside of a jail cell. Never. nt

[Silent3]

20. It's interesting how few people are ready to engage with the hypothetical question here

Not just my fellow pessimists, but I'd most like to see someone who is all gung-ho excited about how "Trump is going down!" give their best estimate of how long they think it will take to get to actual consequences for Trump, and not just process, process, process.