The winter COVID wave that wasn't: Why the US didn't see a surge

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

When the United States saw COVID-19 cases and deaths rise around this past Christmas and New Year's, many Americans feared the country was in for a third winter wave.

But as quickly as both metrics went up, they also came down. Weekly cases and deaths in late winter 2022-23 are on par with what was seen in spring 2022, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

-snip-

Experts told ABC News that a combination of more immunity, better treatments, less severe infections and more people following mitigation measures likely played a role.

"We did not see a wave because we had a very high immunity due to infections and vaccinations," Dr. Ali Mokdad, an epidemiologist with the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation in Seattle, told ABC News. "Omicron and its subvariants did not spare anyone. Also, many of the infections were minor and not reported or did not end in a hospitalization."

https://www.yahoo.com/gma/winter-covid-wave-wasnt-why-074143120.html

[woodsprite]

1. Our immediate family is still masking.

I figure if we get a second round, it’ll be around August after our trip to see the in-laws (non-maskers and anti-vaxers) and our week trip to Disney meeting up with our son/DIL who will just be coming off a weeklong Royal Caribbean cruise to Belize.

[blm]

2. It surged in my family. 3 members

over Christmas and just 2weeks ago.

[onecaliberal]

5. My in laws gave it to my husband and my two sons on Christmas Eve.

No idea how I escaped getting it.

[NewHendoLib]

3. It hit my wife and I just after New Year's day. Not fun.

[Iggo]

22. I got it just before that, the whole second half of December.

For about four days in the middle of that, I felt the worst that I can remember ever feeling, illness-wise. (Except for the time I had dysentery. That was pretty rough…lol.)

[NullTuples]

4. Not mentioned: all the cases of Long COVID & the 1000+ still dying each day.

Sure, it's not a "surge" but those constant reinfections add up statistically to each person's chance of ending up with Long COVID, which...doesn't really seem to be tracked?

And besides, 1000+ per day? That's NOTHING compared to what it was. Why, by the end of the year that will only be around 370,000 or so dead in 2023 from COVID, right?

(Sarcasm. ...I think)


Update / correction: We're at half that as of the 9th. March 1st was 980.

[Blues Heron]

6. where are you seeing 1000+ dying each day? I am not seeing that on Worldometers

[NullTuples]

15. Sorry, that was a single day; March 1st. Latest is the 9th @ 590

It *is* going down sharply.

Worldwide is 1300 per day.

USA stats from https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_coronavirus_deaths_per_day

March 09, 2023 590.00
March 08, 2023 730.00
March 07, 2023 335.00
March 06, 2023 47.00
March 05, 2023 -38.00
March 04, 2023 7.00
March 03, 2023 507.00
March 02, 2023 761.00
March 01, 2023 980.00

[Zeitghost]

8. We have not had 1000 deaths a day

For a year on the downside of the Omicron surge.

[NullTuples]

16. We had 980 on March 1st. But you are right in that it's dropping sharply.

https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_coronavirus_deaths_per_day

[Tomconroy]

17. Some states report at infrequent intervals. The 980 was a data

dump. The average of below 500 has hardly changed in a year. Many European countries have also been flat for Covid related deaths since March 2022. The overwhelming number of these deaths are among the elderly.

[NullTuples]

27. Thank you.

[Zeitghost]

18. You need to take rolling 7 day averages

Reporting is not consistent, especially after weekends and holidays.

The rolling 7 day average has been well under 1000 for a year.

[NullTuples]

28. Thank you.

[BigmanPigman]

7. I follow Worldometers and I noticed that

worldwide the new cases this year are at the lowest point since Feb 2020. This gives me reason to be optimistic yet realistic.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

When this started we on DU who were realistic said it would take 3-4 years to get put of this pandemic. Through masking, social distancing, vaxxes and boosters we were able to get through it, despite tRump and his team doing everything they could to prolong this nightmare. Where is Dr Birx and her scarf now? Politicizing this issue was the worst thing his term in office could have done. HE prolonged it in the US. Parents at school board meetings are still quoting his BS.

I have worn my trusty N95 every single time I go into a store and no one can come into my apt without one. I am the only person who is still wearing a mask in San Diego it seems. Oh well, I like being an individualist.

[Happy Hoosier]

10. I'm curious....

... and please don't take this as a criticism... do you fore see ever not masking again?

I ask, because a close friend got so freaked out by th epandemic (several of her extended family members died) that she seems paralyzed by it still. She rarely leaves her house, and still 100% masks outside the home. It seems like she has adopted a new normal. Do you feel like you are adopting a new normal?

[BigmanPigman]

12. Yes, I will keep wearing a mask

as long as I am high risk (damaged immune system from the school I taught at had mold and had to be torn down). I get the weirdest illnesses and diseases at the drop of a hat since that experience happened. I am below average weight so that is a benefit where Covid is concerned. Also, I live alone so I don't have to worry about a family member infecting me. That is another plus.

[Ms. Toad]

9. No testing and home testing also make the cases look lower.

But if you look at the Community Transmission Level (which is the measure used to evaluate the prevalence of the disease in the community), a substantial portion of the US is either bright red or orange.


https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#county-view?list_select_state=Ohio&data-type=Risk (You'll have to grab it and move it around. I couldn't quickly figure out how to show the entire country).

And that map (which looks pretty bad) is based only on people who are testing and/or reporting home tests.

[Lucky Luciano]

13. Hospitalizations and excess deaths don't lie though.

Last edited Tue Mar 14, 2023, 02:27 PM - Edit history (1)

There is long Covid, but even that I have not seen much of. Unfortunately, my 78 year old uncle is suffering from severe liver damage from Covid. A few years ago he found out he had an enzyme deficiency in his liver that made him more susceptible to Covid (The vaccine doesn’t work as well and the virus could more easily damage his liver). He is definitely not doing well, whereas he was playing golf and softball pre Covid. Due to his age he was turned down for a liver transplant.

[Ms. Toad]

14. Unfortuantely long COVID isn't resulting in a lot of visible consequences.

There is a cluster of symptoms that people associate with long COVID, but a lot more that are being missed.

I've got long COVID, but it is atypical. Had I not pressed the issue, no one would have connected it with COVID because even the non-specialist doctors who diagnosed it aren't aware of the connection. I ran into someone the other day who likely has another less typical variation - she hasn't been diagnosed, but when you know the less typical variations and trace back to when her symptoms started, the dots are there just waiting to be connected.

So even though the immediate dramatic consequences (deaths/hospitalizations) have decreased since vaccines were available, the devastating long-term consequences continue (and are sliding by withiout much notice).

As to your uncle, he should look around in other transplant centers in other regions. There is quite a variation, and 78 would not typically be too old for a liver ransplant. The region-to-region variation has decreased, but Florida used to be a place with broader criteria/lower MELD score at transplants. (Other conditions, and certain causes for needing a transplant, can make otherwise eligible recipients ineligible.) My daughter has a disease that will likely require her to get a transplant at some point, and we know many others with her disease who have gotten transplants (as many as 5), and have gotten transplants at older ages - so I know a fair amount about liver transplants.

[BannonsLiver]

23. You'll never get some people to acknowledge even the slightest improvement in the pandemic.

[Bucky]

11. A big hurricane didn't hit Houston last year. So everyone who prepared for one is an idiot.

I haven't been in a single car accident in years. All that time I spent buckling up was wasted effort.

[Emile]

19. Seems like everyone I know is catching it. Found

out this morning my sister-in-law has caught it. She was always wearing her mask too. My oldest friend in the hospital for surgery has come down with it too.

[BannonsLiver]

20. DU sure was dooming it up heading into winter

I’m old enough to remember when people were also dooming it up on monkey pox as well. Some of it was wishful thinking, I believe.

[Samrob]

21. I think it's being under-reported. I know too many who have been seriously struck with it.

One death.

I haven't attended for while but the family church has a two or three funerals every week it seems. Young and old.

[Johnny2X2X]

24. Covid behaved like most viruses

It was very deadly at the start and then through a combination of it weakening through evolution and people developing immunity to it one way or another, it became less of a threat.

Everyone has different risk tolerances, but right now the Covid risk is low for most people who are healthy.

And just because we now have lower risk, doesn't mean any of the previous measures were wrong. Too many in the media seem to equate lessened risk presently with we took too many precautions when it was riskier. We saved hundreds of thousands or even millions of lives in this country because we enforced mask mandates, had some business and school shutdowns, and then distributed and in some cases mandated the vaccines. You can more easily make an argument that we didn't do enough versus did too much.

[StarryNite]

25. This

[JCMach1]

26. My mom caught it from God knows where in Feb.

Latest versions for the vaccinated and immune was largely like a cold. I am sure a ton was unreported.