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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsPresident Obama won the Cuban vote.
The Latino vote represented 10 percent of the nationwide 2012 electorate, a tick up from 9 percent in 2008, but it moved up even more in some key swing states: Florida, Colorado and Nevada. From their report:
Obama carried Floridas Hispanic vote 60% to 39%, an improvement over his 57% to 42% showing in 2008. Also, Hispanics made up 17% of the Florida electorate this year, up from 14% in 2008.
The states growing non-Cuban populationespecially growth in the Puerto Rican population in central Floridacontributed to the Presidents improved showing among Hispanic voters. This year, according to the Florida exit poll, 34% of Hispanic voters were Cuban while 57% were non-Cuban. Among Cuban voters, the vote was split49% supported Obama while 47% supported Romney. Among the states non-Cuban voters, Obama won 66% versus 34% for Romney.
Check out the historical data for Latino voters in key battlegrounds complied by the Pew Hispanic Center:
- more -
http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/pew-latino-vote-share-outperformed-2008-levels-in
Of course, the WSJ is trying to find a silver lining:
The Wall Street Journal notes that Cuban-born voters living in Florida voted for Mitt Romney, 55% to 45%.
However, American-born Cubans voted overwhelmingly for President Obama, 60% to 40%.
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/11/09/cuban-americans_move_left.html
Summary: Mitt/Republicans lost the Cuban vote.
Jennicut
(25,415 posts)How are you doing?
Dems have appeal to the younger Cubans in Florida now, which is great for the future of Dems there. Pretty amazing but once again, demos hurt Repubs. The young Cubans born here are less conservative then their parents and have now come of age.
ProSense
(116,464 posts)heat and light. That'll help as I go through the process of repairing the damage to the house.
Still, very lucky by comparison to those who saw the worst of the storm.
Thanks.
HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)The article is correct that each successive generation votes more D than previous. And Obama did win the Hispanic vote overall, which includes Puerto Ricans, Venezuelans, Colombians, Dominicans, Mexicans, Brazilians, etc.
ProSense
(116,464 posts)The WSJ exit poll says Obama got 48 percent. Exit polls may vary, I guess.
I'd love to see the data.
Regardless of that, it shows that the hype, specifically the Mason Dixon polls were horribly wrong.
HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)Obama did very among Cuban voters, but didn't win them. Cuban voters are only about 40% of registered Hispanic voters in Florida.
See article in today's Miami Herald and Tampa Bay Times by Marc Caputo.
ProSense
(116,464 posts)Thanks in advance.
HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)Obama won among Cuban-Americans who voted on election day,, but narrowly lost on the total votes (which includes absentee and early votes).
http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/11/08/3087889/poll-obama-got-big-share-of-cuban.html
Auther is a Miami-based Latino.
ProSense
(116,464 posts)HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)"Obama won Cuban-Americans WHO VOTED ON ELECTION DAY" , taking 53% of their vote compared to 47% for Repu lican Mitt Romney, who built up a lead among those who cast absentee and early in-person ballots, according to the survey of 4,866 voters conducted by Bendixon & Amandi International.
Romney NARROWLY CARRIED CUBAN-AMERICANS, 52 to 48 percent, which is a decrease for Republicans when compared to 2008."
ProSense
(116,464 posts)that appeared in the Miami Herald.
In Bendixen's poll, Florida Hispanics broke 61 to 39 percent in Obama's favor a one-point difference from Edison. Edison's poll indicated Obama may have won the Cuban-American vote, 49 to 47 percent, but the results were well within the survey's error margin.
Like I said, the article does offer up contradictory numbers, but the Pew data in the OP is separate, and there is no way to way which is accurate.
Based on the data in the OP, Obama won 49 to 47.
HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)What's next? Citing Mason-Dixon's weekend poll that had Romney up by 6 points two days before tuesday? Obviously, the Republican polling groups undersampled African American and Hispanic voters.
BAI did polling for Obama Campaign, and obviously the Obama Campaign's internals were far more accurate than the Romney Campaign's.
Why are you pimping inaccurate republican polls, when the democratic polls were proven correct? Are you simply being stubborn and argumentative?
ProSense
(116,464 posts)http://www.pewhispanic.org/2012/11/07/latino-voters-in-the-2012-election/
That was the basis of my point.
Why are you up in arms about that? I mean, the article you cite presents two sets of numbers. The OP is based on Pew.
You can't say with certainty that Pew is wrong, and I'm not confused about what Pew states.
You can disagree, but claiming that I'm "pimping" Republican data and the rest simply because you disagree with Pew's data is uncalled for.
There are three sets of data, including Pew, and two indicate the President got 49 percent to Romney's 47.
More accurate data will be released in the coming months. If I'm wrong, I'll acknowledge that.
Daniel537
(1,560 posts)"Miami Democratic pollster Bendixen & Amandi International, however, reported Monday its own analysis of the countys 48 largest Hispanic districts showed Obama won the Cuban vote, 51-49 percent over Romney."
Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/11/12/3094299/winner-of-cuban-american-vote.html#storylink=cpy
ProSense
(116,464 posts)Daniel537
(1,560 posts)ProSense
(116,464 posts)MIAMI (CBSMiami) While Florida still hasnt finished counting all the ballots from Tuesdays election, the exit polling from Tuesdays presidential election is suggesting a major shift in the voting pattern of the Hispanic vote in Florida.
Exit polls of the Cuban-American community in Florida showed a split between Cuba-Americans who were born in Cuba and those born in the United States. Historically, Cuban-American voters have heavily favored the Republican Party since the failed Bay of Pigs invasion in 1961.
According to the Wall Street Journal, Cuban-born voters broke for Mitt Romney by a 55-45 percent margin. However, among Cuban-Americans born in the United States, President Barack Obama carried the group by a 60-40 percent margin.
The Pew Hispanic Center reported Cuban-Americans favored Obama by a 49-47 percent margin. And a Latino Decisions national poll released the day before the election pegged Latino support for Obama at roughly 71 percent.
- more -
http://miami.cbslocal.com/2012/11/09/poll-cuban-american-vote-moving-democratic/
The president actually won the Cuban American vote on Election Day, though Romney got the majority of early votes and absentee ballots, according to exit polling.
- more -
http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/11/08/3087889/poll-obama-got-big-share-of-cuban.html
It's clear he won the Cuban vote in Florida.
HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)You are confused. Obama only won most of Cuban-Americans votes ON ELECTION DAY. In total votes, which includes absentee and early votes, he narrowly lost. Thats still a good result, but your headline and conclusion is wrong.
http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/11/08/3087889/poll-obama-got-big-share-of-cuban.html
ProSense
(116,464 posts)From the article.
In Bendixens poll, Florida Hispanics broke 61-39 percent in Obamas favor a one-point difference from Edison. Edisons poll indicated Obama may have won the Cuban-American vote, 49-47 percent, but the results were well within the surveys error margin.
Now the article does offer up contradictory numbers, but the Pew data in the OP is separate, and there is no way to way which is accurate.
Based on the data in the OP, Obama won 49 to 47.
HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)You're citing Edison, a republican polling group. The republican polls proved wrong.
Bendixon Amandi International is Democratic leaning. They did polling for Obama, produced Spanish-language ads for him, and did outreach consulting work. Their exit poll cited in the article was conducted independantly of the campaign. Obviously, the Obama Campaign's internal polls were better than Romney's... and tbe Dem pollsters proved more accurate this election than the R's. It appears BAI was the more accurate of the two polls, although Edison's poll was within the moe.
ProSense
(116,464 posts)the most important take away from all of this is that President Obama won at least 48 percent of the Cuban vote.
That is amazing, and spells trouble for the Republicans.
HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)There hasn't been a mass exodus of Cubans in 30 years. Their children are coming of voting age, and more likely to vote Dem. Plus, Cuban-Americans no longer a majority of Hispanic Floridians, they are just a plurality (40%). Puerto Ricans #2 at 25%, Venezuelans fastest growing group. Lots of Colombians here, too.
Daniel537
(1,560 posts)Both polls have Obama at either 48 or 49 percent, so when you factor in the margin of error its just as easy to believe that Obama won the Cuban vote as it is that he barely lost it.
HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)then you are believing the same pollsters that had Romney winning Fl by 6 points. Obviously, those polls were in error.
Obama did very well with the Cuban vote, but he came just a little short. In a few years, Dems will have a majority of Cuban vote. BTW, the second largest Hispanic demographic in Fl is Puerto Ricans, and 83% voted for Obama.
Daniel537
(1,560 posts)What evidence do you have that this polling group, Edison, had Obama losing? They seem to be in line with the Bendixen poll as to the percentage Obama got, either 48 or 49 percent, hardly a huge difference. Anyhow, the major point is definitely that Obama received the highest percentage of the Cuban vote for a Dem in history. And as a Cuban-American, i'm proud to be among that 48 or 49 percent, and i hope this finally leads to normalization with Cuba.
pinto
(106,886 posts)The Wall Street Journal notes that Cuban-born voters living in Florida voted for Mitt Romney, 55% to 45%.
However, American-born Cubans voted overwhelmingly for President Obama, 60% to 40%.
HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)And identify as Cubans. First generation born here more evenly divided, tend to self-identify as Cuban-Americans. Second generation onwards tend to vote as other Hispanic groups, self-identify as Americans.