In race to arm Ukraine, U.S. faces cracks in its manufacturing might

[former9thward]

The war has exposed an inability to rapidly surge production of many weapons needed for Ukraine and for America’s self-defense

Despite boasting the world’s largest military budget — more than $800 billion a year — and its most sophisticated defense industry, the United States has long struggled to efficiently develop and produce the weapons that have enabled U.S. forces to outpace their peers technologically. Those challenges take on new importance as conventional conflict returns to Europe and Washington contemplates the possibility of its own great-power fight.

Even as public support for the vast sums of aid being given to Ukraine grows softer and more divisive, the conflict has sparked a broader conversation about the need to shatter what military leaders describe as the “brittleness” of the U.S. defense industry and devise new means to quickly scale up output of weapons at moments of crisis. Some observers are worried the Pentagon is not doing enough to replenish the billions of dollars in armaments that have left American stocks.

Research conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) shows the current output of American factories may be insufficient to prevent the depletion of stockpiles of key items the United States is providing Ukraine. Even at accelerated production rates, it is likely to take at least five years to recover the inventory of Javelin antitank missiles, Stinger surface-to-air missiles and other in-demand items.

Earlier research done by the Washington think tank illustrates a more pervasive problem: The slow pace of U.S. production means it would take as long as 15 years at peacetime production levels, and more than eight years at a wartime tempo, to replace the stocks of major weapons systems such as guided missiles, piloted aircraft and armed drones if they were destroyed in battle or donated to allies.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/03/08/us-weapons-manufacturing-ukraine/

[WarGamer]

1. Just increase the budget some more... no problem.

Won't have to cut more than 3-4 programs like free school lunches to make up the difference $$$

[OAITW r.2.0]

2. We might have cracks, but Russia is dead in the water without China's help.

This is the best investment of our defense dollars. Stopping Russia in Ukraine will pretty much consign them to 3rd world status. China best think about their future without trading partners if they want to prop this loser up.

[former9thward]

3. I think it is more complicated than that.

China and the U.S. are huge trading partners. So the U.S. can't just walk away. Where are those products going to come from? In addition China is developing trading partners in Asia, Africa and South America.

[OAITW r.2.0]

4. Mexico will be the the logical replacement.

And economic develop in Central/South America should be our priority. Africa is a tough situation, China is spending huge RMB buying natural resources there. I don't see China making a lot of inroads in SE Asia....no countries there want China's political domination IMHO

[PortTack]

6. Some numbers to ponder and why China moves cautiously

EUTrade with China 380+ billion
US 364+ billion
Russia 64 billion
Asia, Africa and so. America don’t even come close to the above numbers
China cannot afford to walk away, or suffer sanctions from the west. Their economy is teetering and will certainly fail if they move against the west

[former9thward]

8. The Chinese economy is teetering?

We just went thru and are still going thru a banking crisis when our 16th largest bank failed -- a bank that had invested almost exclusively in U.S. Treasury notes. It has even dragged in huge European banks. I don't think we have any room to talk.

[Xolodno]

5. I think a lot of it has to do with some people in Congress...

....not prioritizing what the military wanted but keeping pet projects as it brought jobs to their state or district.

Putin probably knows this and even though their level of modern military is no where near at our stocks, they are blowing out all the old Soviet equipment for the time being and playing out the clock.

[PortTack]

7. Poland has already announced they will enter the war in Ukraine if they alone cannot achieve victory

On the battlefield. Not as a NATO force but as a country willing to take on the russians. Poland is quickly becoming the largest military might in the EU. Other EU countries, Moldova the Baltic nations would follow. They fully understand what’s at stake. Putin will finally have his f..k around and find out moment. They cannot allow him to win

[Xolodno]

9. No, it hasn't.

That was a statement from the Polish Ambassador to France during an interview and he wasn't very concrete on what conditions that would be. And I quote...

"Poland’s Ambassador to France Jan Emeryk Rościszewski said in an interview that a situation could arise in which Poland would have to enter the war. The embassy urged audiences to refrain from sensationalizing his words."

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/polish-ambassador-france-poland-forced-201021342.html

In other words, they've already walked it back. But the statement did cause more to beat war drums.