Dramatic realignment swings working-class districts toward GOP

[RandySF]

Nine of the top 10 wealthiest congressional districts are represented by Democrats, while Republicans now represent most of the poorer half of the country, according to median income data provided by Rep. Marcy Kaptur's (D-Ohio) office.

Why it matters: The last several decades have ushered in a dramatic political realignment, as the GOP has broadened its appeal to a more diverse working class and Democrats have become the party of wealthier, more-educated voters.

"Republicans were the party of the country club, and they're increasingly the party of country," lobbyist and political analyst Bruce Mehlman told Axios.
"We have seen an inversion of Democrat and Republican shares of the highest- and lowest-income districts — and the highest and lowest college degree-holding districts," Cook Political Report's Dave Wasserman told Axios.

By the numbers: 64% of congressional districts with median incomes below the national median are now represented by Republicans — a shift in historical party demographics, the data shows.



https://www.axios.com/2023/04/12/house-democrats-winning-wealthier-districts-middle-class-gop

[Hassler]

1. People flocking to the party that ripped them off, based on culture wars

Gays, god, guns.

[peppertree]

2. Sad, but true.

P.T. Barnum was right.

[betsuni]

8. It's the culture wars.

[BlueWaveNeverEnd]

13. they have them outraged over drag shows and "men in women's bathrooms"

[Cosmocat]

15. 100%

saw it as a young adult and have been saying it for three plus decades - they have increasingly just run on culture, very effectively.

The last time any election was won by any kind of tangible policy matter was when the Rs did a mind bending turn to run against THEIR version of health 13 years ago, and they won the biggest mid term win in our lives.

Running AGAINST a marginal improvement in our health care system.

[msongs]

3. "more diverse working class" raciss jew haating gay basher christians nt

[Johonny]

16. It's diverse in that they got the rural white male

locked up. And that's about it.

They're winning the target audience of FOX news and hate radio. The propaganda has targeted those people for 30 years now and propaganda works.

[dweller]

4. How much of that shift

is due to gerrymandering?
🤔



✌🏻

[WarGamer]

6. No.

This is polling by income level.

Lower income level citizens are swinging right.

DEMS still do well with the LOWEST income levels (and HIGH levels), it's the lower-middle and middle classes veering right.

[WarGamer]

5. It's true...

Look at the data.

Biden had more billionaires behind him in 2020 than Trump, according to a NYT report.

I'm not sure about the change...

[DavidDvorkin]

7. I'd like to see an age breakdown

Is the swing to the right uniform across all age groups, or is it less among the young? If it's the latter, that makes me hopeful for the longer term.

[PortTack]

9. Your question is spot on. The bigger picture, by 2028 millennials and genz will dominate elections

and they aren’t voting for gqp candidates. As much as I like cook political and Dave Wasserman they are really missing the bigger picture here

[Cosmocat]

14. No they aren't

The next time the youth vote saves the day (in any real, consistent manner) will be the first.


I see what they are talking about, and these people actually vote.

[Sky Jewels]

17. B.S. -- The youth vote has saved us over the past three major elections.

If it weren't for Gen Z, we'd be in Trump Term #2, for instance.

The older generations are the ones that suck (yes, in general, exceptions abound, blah blah...).

[Cosmocat]

19. Their involvement is margin at best

They only appear to be the difference maker, but that is because the margin was so close and and so few of them vote, people like yourself view them that way.

I work a poll and you can count on a few hands the number of 18-25ish voters.

There are the usual reliable Ds and the usual and reliable Rs.

Overwhelming majority 30+.

To the point that Cook and company are making ...

[PortTack]

25. Yes..they are!

Millennials and Generation Z will constitute a majority of eligible voters in time to elect Joe Biden’s successor in 2028. 56% of Millennials and 77% of Generation Z are inclined to elect Democrats to Congress.


https://dakotafreepress.com/2023/04/11/dem-leaning-millennials-and-gen-z-to-be-majority-of-electorate-by-2028/

[Sky Jewels]

11. Yep. And I doubt many middle class women are flocking to

candidates who want to ban abortions.

Incels, yes.

[Sympthsical]

23. Millennials are sliding right

Kind of not discussed much. Under 30s remain about 65/35 D/R. Which is what you expect in the youth vote.

Ages 30-44 is at about a four point margin.

Millennials are a somewhat bigger generation than Gen Z, and the liberalism that defined us is ebbing away with age to some degree. In case anyone thinks there's a grand demographic shift in voting patterns coming. Probably not. I'm still waiting to see if some demographic shifts happen that seem like they're about to in AAPI and Latino voting patterns. I don't think it's as much a given as advertised, but I'm concerned enough about it to keep careful notes for the next five years. Depends how crazy Republicans get.

Going to be a weird next twenty years.

There are reasons for this. I have my theories. Talking with friends and family and different racial groups in my age group, seeing their perspectives once they started families and settled into their homes and careers.

None of my theories would go well here, lol. But, there's a lot of, "Yeah, I don't like this. I don't know why people keep thinking we do," happening on some fronts. But the insulated won't acknowledge it, so . . . it'll be an interesting 20 years.

I'm just saying, I won't be surprised when the other side wins some elections. I've been hearing about the death of Republicans and America's endless shift to all blue forever my entire adult life. I do not foresee that ever materializing. It'll be the same shittiness it's always been.

[betsuni]

10. Kaptur's a Democrats Are Out-of-touch Wealthy Coastal Elites Ignoring Middle/Working Class

believer, evidently.

Because Biden and the last two Democratic presidents (and their First Ladies) aren't from wealthy coastal elite upper class families (they had to actually study in school), I always wondered who they have in mind when they repeat this and finally figured it out: Nancy Pelosi.

Kaptur: "I'm not saying Nancy Pelosi didn't live struggle. But you have such a different perspective on where you need to move to help your communities." What is she saying here, that Nancy can't understand inequality? It's a total mystery because of where she lives, making her incapable of understanding inequality in America. Huh?

So, if you're a Democrat in a wealthy district like Pelosi, you obviously must vote for tax cuts for the 1% and corporations, against any regulations, want to defund social safety nets, be against affordable health care and education, want a small enough government to drown in a bathtub. No? That hasn't happened? Zero Democratic votes for Trump tax cuts? Biden agenda clearly not ignoring the middle and working classes?

What's the point?

[Phoenix61]

12. Just another way of describing the urban-rural split.

Wages in cities are higher than in rural areas. The cost of living is also higher so I doubt their lifestyle is all that different. The only thing I care about is we get the youth vote and the R’s seem hell bent on handing it to us. They are doubling down like a drunk on a losing streak in Vegas.

[Sky Jewels]

18. Middle-class suburban women are going our way too.

Dobbs isn't playing well. Stripping rights from half the population isn't popular. Imagine that.

[Samrob]

20. They are Trumps "poorly educated" grievance group. nt

[moondust]

21. Before Reagan lit the fuse

on neoliberalism/"greed is good"/globalization/offshoring jobs leading to massive inequality, the GQP was the party of Carnegies, Rockefellers, and landowning farmers while the Dems were largely the party of the working class. Then the GQP realized their divide-and-conquer strategy exploiting racism and hate--blaming "welfare queens in Cadillacs" and "big gubment" handouts to the lazy--worked well on the ignorant white supremacists so they doubled down. Then came Fox and Limbaugh to reinforce their corrupt propaganda 24/7 and there was no looking back. The black guy in the White House pushed them over the edge and they suckered for the corrupt, incompetent King of the Birthers.

Good luck!

[orangecrush]

22. So of course Democrats

Are going to start a campaign letting working poor know how much our party has done for the blue collar folks going all the way back to the Great depression.

And we're going to reach out on the same medium on which the right spews their foul vitriol, a.m. radio, not just online, so they get to consider another point of view.

And it's going to be entertaining enough to make them want to listen, ala Franken/Maddow "Air America".


Right?

[NotVeryImportant]

24. There's a common thread-line that binds the old and new Republican supporters though

Care to guess what it is?