Gallup Poll of Party Affiliation

[brooklynite]

Do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat or an independent?

Democrat — 25%
Republican — 25%
INDEPENDENT — 49% (+13 from October 2020)

With Indy leaners:
GOP — 43%
DEM — 43%

https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

[Gidney N Cloyd]

1. 1) We're doomed. 2) I wonder where that +13 mostly came from?

[Qutzupalotl]

6. mostly from Republicans

Rs lost 8 points, Ds lost 4 since October.

We're at a tipping point (dead even), but the trends are in our favor.

[Gidney N Cloyd]

18. OK, I'm still out on the ledge but I've inched closer back to the window.

[Hortensis]

9. Don't believe polls. Seriously. We know much of the MSM is corrupt

and misusing their power to keep Republicans in power. They need to be able to quote polls and need them to say what...they need them to say.

[brush]

11. Exactly. 81M Dem voters in 2020. 74M repubican voters sure seems...

to say something...as does the non-realized red tsunami in 2022, a midterm election where the out of power party usually wins big.

[Hortensis]

16. Their "non-realized red tsunami." From these data

you might assume "indies" were just as likely to vote for banning all abortion nationwide, overthrowing democracy, and ending freedom of the internet as to vote in alarm to protect themselves from that.

[brush]

17. I figure indies split fairly evenly. Repugs should've won big...

in 2022 but we Dems gained a Senate seat and the repugs barely kept the House when they were expectling to win 30-40 seats.

[Celerity]

20. The Rethugs outvoted us in 2022 by 3 million. Popular US House vote: R - 54,506,136. D - 51,477,313

Also, closing in on 75% of Biden's 7 million popular vote winning margin came from ONE state (my state of registration, CA)

Biden won CA by over 5.1 million votes.

[brush]

2. Why Gallup, aren't they a right-leaning org?

Can we trust their figures?

[TheProle]

4. References

https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/gallup/

https://www.allsides.com/news-source/gallup

[brooklynite]

5. Gallup is one the oldest Polling firms in America.

Why would you assume an even split in voters isn't realistic?

Gallup, Inc. is an American analytics and advisory company based in Washington, D.C. Founded by George Gallup in 1935, the company became known for its public opinion polls conducted worldwide. Starting in the 1980s, Gallup transitioned its business to focus on providing analytics and management consulting to organizations globally. In addition to its analytics, management consulting, and Gallup Poll, the company also offers educational consulting, the CliftonStrengths assessment and associated products, and business and management books published by its Gallup Press unit.

[brush]

7. Because of the 2020 election. 81M Dem voters vs 74M republicnans....

and the rampant gerrymander in many states is why I don't think the country is split evenly between Democrats and republicans voters.

IMO Gallup is not the organization we should put our trust in. It's long been known as a right-leaning poller.

[DenaliDemocrat]

12. Because they are in Omaha or actually that weird part of Iowa

That is on the wrong side of the River but the state is redder than Alaska and full of trad Catholics who send their kids to Creighton Prep. How about that?

[ProfessorGAC]

10. Yes We Can

Our purely social statistics matters, where the questions asked are hard to create "pull" they have reliable numbers.
Pew last summer or fall, showed R = 24%, D = 28%, 48% I.
So, it's pretty close to the same result.
Two different firms, nearly identical figures.

[brush]

14. 24% is not pretty close to 28% IMO. 4 points better equates...

to won elections with indies split evenly.

For instance, in 2020 Dems had 81M votes, republicans had 74M, that's a 7 point difference and it put Biden in the WH.

[ProfessorGAC]

19. Yes, It Is

In a social survey using sampling, 26% +/-2% is quite good.
It's a less than 8% difference. That's a reasonably small sampling error.
And, it's silly to compare votes to sampled statistics. You are comparing a sample to a whole population.
It's particularly weak given that Biden's win of around 8 million votes out of 150 million plus is already >5%.
So, it doesn't take much to see that those independent leanings shifted toward Biden. It's easy to believe that many independents were voting to launch TFG. In another election, some might lean the other way.
I really am not going to argue statistics because you don't like the result. I have decades of statistical & mathematical analysis under my belt.
I have nothing to prove. You can trust me or not.

[brush]

24. IMO Gallup is well known to be a right-leaning outfit. Those figures shold be taken with several...

grains of salt. There are other polling outfits that would should distinctly different breakdowns.

Gallup? No, just no.

[angrychair]

3. What this means

Is our country is doomed.

Given that even split it means that half the country is actually as it appears: antisemitic, racist, misogynistic and bigoted asshats.

These are irreconcilable differences.

These are dark times and if I'm being perfectly honest I do not see our country surviving the decade.

[brush]

8. Gallup is right-leaning. Those figures are questionable.

[friend of a friend]

13. What is your source?

[brush]

15. Biden 81M votes in 2020, trump 74M.

[Just A Box Of Rain]

21. The takeaway from Biden's victory seem to be that he drew significant support

from the independant voters who Gallup suggest lean 43% GOP/ 43% DEM.

Democrats win when we run a candidate with broad appeal, especially when the Republican alternative is cray-cray.

[NotVeryImportant]

22. Interesting.

[Igel]

23. Polls are funny.

It's a commonplace that if a president is popular, two years into his term more say voted for him than votes tallied during the election tally. And if the president is uncommon, fewer voted for him, in retrospect, than votes count.

If a president goes from popular to unpopular (or vice-versa) then the people who are sure they voted for him increases and decreases (or vice-versa).

Identity is very, very fluid, in this case.