Two non-rightwing post-indictment GE polls: Biden +1 and Trump +1

[reqd]

Excluding Rasmussen, who makes things up, we have YouGov and Morning Consult.

Morning Consult has Biden ahead by 1 point and YouGov has Trump +1.

Trump was just indicted but this didn’t negatively affect him whatsoever when it comes to electability. It may have even helped him a little bit. If Trump wins and with the Senate almost certainly turning Republican in 2024 according to every single forecaster, we are talking about older justices such as Clarence Thomas dying or retiring due to old age and being replaced by much younger right-wing judges.

This could lead to many decades of rulings gutting rights for every non-conservative person in the nation. With an electoral college system, we’re not going to win the presidency by beating Trump by 1% in the popular vote. Despite trying to topple the government on January 6th and being indicted and awaiting more indictments, Trump is still tied with Biden.

I don’t know what’s causing Biden not pulling away from Trump, but we better find out what’s going on and what the right strategy should be. We have to beat Trump in 2024.”

Or we're back to the 19th century, and say goodbye to a free Ukraine.

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/bwbgbyvmsw/econTabReport.pdf

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/morning-consult/

[Goodheart]

1. The world is absurd.

[Funtatlaguy]

2. That it's not 60-40% is both depressing and horrifying

[Silent3]

13. Agreed!

The problem is not the accuracy of the polls, it's that disapproval of Trump should be so powerful that the worst pollsters would have Biden well ahead of Trump anyway.

If we only defeat Trumpism and fascism by the skin of our teeth, our luck will eventually fail us, and then subsequent elections might be rendered meaningless.

The only good news is that the Dobbs decision might have swung voter motivation and turnout in our favor for now. It's sad, however, that it takes something so harmful to give us an edge. Similarly, I'm pretty sure COVID saved us from a second Trump term.

[Marius25]

3. This country is not going to survive much longer.

Most Americans are just too stupid.

If you have the means, I suggest preparing to leave the country. Otherwise, try to make sure you're in a blue state so when the inevitable Balkanization happens, you're in the sane part.

[roamer65]

11. [phone]

Climate change plus political polarization equals coming mass exodus northward.

Province of Michigan within 20 years.

🇨🇦

[JohnSJ]

4. What kind of people answer calls from phone numbers they don't recognize? National polls are

not how elections are determined. Small population states are over-weighted in polls like this, and large population states are under-weighted.

The only poll that matters is the one on election day, and most people are not focused on the 2024 election.

As Kansas and Wisconsin demonstrated, the American public is significantly pro-choice

It never fails though, someone posts a poll that is not favorable toward us, and some jump into the doom and gloom scenario. Single polls at this stage mean very little, and I would argue that based on the recent elections, the pollsters aren't what they used to be.

[Phoenix61]

6. For a poll to be accurate they sample has to be accurate and it's not.

It doesn’t matter what someone says what matters is who makes it to the polls. The youth vote has been fantastic! Record breaking fantastic and the polls aren’t taking that into account. They are using old, outdated date to pull a sample.

[JohnSJ]

7. and I would argue most younger people do not answer calls from numbers they do not recognize. So

much spam and fraud out there on these phone calls

[Phoenix61]

14. Absolutely true. I don't either. If it's legit and important they'll leave a message. nt

[JohnSJ]

16. same here

[Silent3]

12. Pollsters use modelling to account for sampling biases

It's not a perfect system, of course, and can't help but be based on previous elections, but it's not as if, say, 80% who responded to polls were conservative and 20% were liberal that conservatives would have four times the effect on poll results.

Pollsters are far from perfect, but they're better than that.

[Phoenix61]

15. The modeling has the youth age group very

underestimated. It’s why they were so wrong in WI. Even the GQP knows this. It’s why they are busy passing laws that make it harder for college kids to vote. Things like a hunting license is a valid ID but a college ID is not.

[Silent3]

17. I sincerely doubt that every pollster's modeling is off about the youth vote...

...time and time again. They do learn and adjust. There's lag time, yes, but a half decent pollster won't keep getting that severely wrong repeatedly.

[Phoenix61]

18. I'm sure they'll adjust their algorithms it's just going to

take a couple of election cycles.

[JohnSJ]

29. How do they count those who don't answer calls from unknown numbers, or don't answer polls?

It is an unknown how those people will respond.

It would be interesting to see how those pare accounted for, and what their numbers are

[Silent3]

31. They obviously can't count *those specific* people who don't answer

But, from the people who do answer, pollsters gather demographic information, and then weight the likely significance of each respondent's opinions based on a comparison to the distributions of demographic turnouts in recent elections.

For instance, if in recent elections 4% of the vote came from people age 18-25, but only 1% of poll respondents were age 18-25, the opinions of the 18-25 year-old respondents would carry four times the weight of the typical respondent.

[Buckeyeblue]

8. I agree. It really comes down to a handful of states

And we are so far away from Nov 2024. So much can happen. The next presidential election will be about abortion. It will be a national referendum on whether or not the government can force a woman to give birth against her will.

All of the other issues really line up under abortion. It's not simple. But to me, it is that simple.

Republicans will have enacted draconian anti-abortion laws in just about every place that they can by then. Which means the abortion issue is not about speculation. It's about how Republicans will try to prohibit abortion nation-wide if they are elected.

And by the way, they will also end SSI, Medicare, repeal ACA, give more tax cuts to the rich, and allow Putin to go unchecked.

[former9thward]

19. We were told the Nov. 2022 was going to be about abortion.

What happened?

[Buckeyeblue]

45. I think it was about abortion

We were supposed to get crushed in the House and lose the Senate. Neither happened.

[former9thward]

46. We lost the House.

How that can be spun as a victory I don't know.

[Buckeyeblue]

47. But not by a large margin

It's only a victory in that we didn't lose by a large margin. We had a slim majority to begin with.

[former9thward]

48. Unlike the Senate there are no second place prizes in the House.

A one vote victory is total control.

[former9thward]

20. I made the same argument as you did in your title line in a thread about gun ownership.

The poster was making claims based on polls about the number of guns owned by Americans and specifically the number of multiple gun ownership. The reply(s) to me was that polls were "professional and scientific". Either people will answer strange calls about politics and about guns or they will do neither.

[JohnSJ]

33. My question is how many people don't answer calls from unknown numbers or don't respond to

polls?

No one knows their position on the polled items, so whatever that number is it won’t be included in the poll, and how significant that is

[Bettie]

25. People who answer calls from phone numbers they don't recognize

tend to be authoritarian in nature, generally the follower type, who still adhere to the social construct that if your phone rings you answer it, regardless of weather you know who is on the other end or not.

The only people younger than 50 or so that I know who answer their phones when they don't know who the caller is are MAGAts.

[Ms. Toad]

28. AFAIK, YouGov does not poll by phone.

All of the YouGov polls I've participated in are electronic, and I believe that is the only way they poll.

At the end they ask political party information (D, R, I) and if you answer I, you have to declare whether you are closer to D or R and adjust the responses based on the party information to conform to party affiliation in the applicable general population.

[Phoenix61]

5. Apparently, none of those forecasters has any idea exactly

how pissed off women are over Roe vs Wade being gutted. They also don’t seem to know how truly fed up our youth are with being slaughtered while trying to learn. Or what those same young people think about the trampling of LGBTQ rights and the ignoring of climate change. Polls are based on knowing who is going to vote and how they will vote and they don’t. The reason WI got a liberal judge is because the youth showed up, en masse. It’s not a one off. They are enraged and engaged and they are only going to get stronger. And they aren’t voting for the GQP.

[Zeitghost]

21. All those things were well known in 2022

And we lost by 3 points.

[Phoenix61]

22. We lost what by 3 points? nt

[Zeitghost]

23. Yes, 3 points.

Well, 2.8 if you want to be precise.

[Phoenix61]

24. I'm sorry, I don't know what you are talking about at all.

What did we lose by 2.8 points?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

26. The popular vote for the House.

The general election electorate will be much more Democratic. Way too early to panic in any event.

[Phoenix61]

27. Thank you. nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

37. You're welcome.

I also read if you exclude races where's the Republican ran unopposed it's less than two percent.

[shrike3]

38. GOP also had the worst showing by an opposition party since I believe WW1

People were worried about inflation, Biden had/has low numbers. In spite of all that, they lost a Senate seat and ended up with a measly five-seat majority. I mean, that took talent.

[usonian]

9. What's the IQ of someone who answers a call from an unknown caller?

Besides, Orange Julius is campaigning. Biden isn't yet.

History repeats itself because people refuse to learn.







Wait! there's a random link in my email. Let me click on ............

[Ms. Toad]

30. YouGov doesn't poll by phone.

It is exclusively an online polling entity. I've been participating in YouGov polls for around a decade. (I didn't participate in this particular poll).

[usonian]

41. I stand corrected.

I have gotten about one poll request, in the mail, in 5 or more years. (Other than the ones stores ask you to fill out).

[ecstatic]

51. Um, that's not true. Some of us do business with a lot of individuals, from both known and unknown

phone numbers. People who deal with a lot of individuals on any given day can't just ignore or block calls every day. Must be nice though.

[LakeArenal]

10. " If Trump wins and with the Senate almost certainly turning Republican in 2024 according to...""

This is complete bullshit to me. My opinion.

Especially after the polls calling for 2022 House’s no red wave Congress.

To me this is rw bs.

[Deuce]

32. No Electoral College, it would be difficult for Republicans to win the Presidency.

[shrike3]

34. Low post count, bad news

They show up regularly,

Where do you get the Senate turning Republican in 2024?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

35. Thank you.

[shrike3]

36. Quite honestly, after 2022 I'm ignoring polls

I think it was the Colorado race. Supposedly close and the Dem won by something like ten points.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

39. Too early to worry about polls.

Your original point Is more interesting. These lil shticks are inane and ----ing annoying.

[shrike3]

40. Oh, I agree, way too early. But this particular poster, and I'm probably breaking rules

by pointing this out, has one and only one discussion post: this one.

[shrike3]

43. You don't pay much attention to politics?

Maybe that's why you apparently joined just to make this post?

It was Michael Bennett's race.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

49. What did I miss?

[shrike3]

53. Poster wanted to know which senate race I was talking about.

Then stated, in all seriousness, that the above pollsters don't poll Senate races.

[obamanut2012]

44. lol

[jcgoldie]

52. The senate has a lot higher chance of flipping than...

...Trump does of ever becoming president again. Who is going to vote for him that didn't last time?

[shrike3]

54. I agree. Only the die-hards.

[ecstatic]

50. People I've talked to have an issue with Biden's age, which is crazy

because trump is old too. They're not moving to trump. They hate trump, but they are concerned about Biden's age and they're immersed in memes on social media that have Biden looking like a nursing home patient.

Of course, I push back and my latest strategy is to say--you know me. You KNOW I wouldn't support someone who was incompetent. I think that type of persuasion, if we all do it with friends/family, might get us over the finish in 2024, but we'll have to keep the pressure on them until they vote. Like, literally check the receipts. lol