what will happen to world order if Russia collapses?

[Grasswire2]

In a nutshell?

[padfun]

1. Less rigging of US Elections?

[Lovie777]

2. Hopefully freedom for Russians.............

[Hekate]

36. They've never had it, & I don't think they'd know what to do with it

[bluedigger]

3. More order.

Russia is a chaos agent.

[bullimiami]

5. BINGO!

[enid602]

4. Manifest destiny

The Chinese will gobble up eastern Russia.

[Chainfire]

26. Certainly, to protect the people.

[temporary311]

34. Outer Manchuria at the very least, for sure.

[hunter]

44. They'll control it with money, not military might.

The gangsters who now run the place will simply shift their allegiances from Moscow to Beijing.

National boundaries won't change.

I doubt China is interested in governing there.

[enid602]

45. China

China has a billion poor people. Populating and developing such a vast area might be China’s only way to lift the masses.

[hunter]

46. China is not poor any more.

They are solidly among the per capita upper middle income nations.

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=CN

[enid602]

48. China

One billion Chinese receive direct payments from the Chinese Government, which temporarily keep them out of the UN poverty statistics.

[hunter]

49. Um, that's how the Chinese economy is set up. There's nothing temporary about it.

Think of everyone as employees, retired employees, or other beneficiaries of China Inc., if you must.

All economic activity is ultimately directed and supervised by the Chinese Communist Party.

Their economy incorporates some elements of capitalism, but it's not a capitalist nation.

"Western" economies are capitalist nations incorporating some elements of socialism.

Purely capitalist or purely communist economies are simply not practical.

[MLAA]

6. Trump and Tucker will lose their meal ticket?

[imanamerican63]

40. And a lot of other GOBers would too!

Marjorie, Teddy, Lindsey, Matt, & GYmmie just to name a few!

[Johonny]

7. Not much, their ship sailed a while ago

Their economy isn't that big. They are a military force in the immediate area around their borders, but I think it is safe to say, their order in the world was passed a while ago. In some sense, the current war is a reflection on that.

But without India and China propping them up right now, look out below. The 21st century will not be Russia's century.

[brush]

18. It's gonna be like the fall of the USSR again. Putin will be out...

and they'll have to sort out who will be the next leader again and scores will be settled. It'll be nothing but chaos 2.0.

China may move on border parts of eastern Russia. Ukraine will shore up it's eastern territories and Crimea.

They of course will repeat they're tendency to go again with a strongman instead of trying democracy. It's what they've always done and will do again.

[marble falls]

8. Russia won't collapse. Putin and the oligarchs will. I don't think compromising on Ukraine ...

... does any good at all. What happens when dictators collapse? The world is a better place. What happened when the USSR collapsed? The world got better. The republics of the former USSR mostly got better.

"world order if Russia collapses?" A New World Order, if Russia collapses? Awfully close to RW talking points. What is the source of this question?

[Buckeyeblue]

9. The biggest issue will be dealing with the nukes in a rogue state

Hopefully whoever ends up the leader will be Western friendly and allow NATO to help secure the arsenal.

[mahina]

10. Came to say this.

Opportunities for Russian nuclear material to enter hostile hands has increased so much since Trump office. It’s really alarming.

[Buckeyeblue]

13. Right. It could turn really bad quickly.

[Irish_Dem]

17. Maybe that is why the US isn't helping Ukraine have an all out victory.

Just helping enough to grind down and damage Russia.
But not enough to destroy it.

[DFW]

28. Agreed.

A collapsing Russia does us no good. Breaking up into smaller states run by nuclear-armed warlords (imagine ten little Lukashenkos) will not make the world safer.

What WOULD make the world safer would be a benevolent capitalist state, using its vast wealth of natural resources to build a huge economic powerhouse and trading partner (full bellies tend not to start fights), utilizing its vast wealth in an environmentally conscious manner, building housing for the masses, creating jobs and schools to feed and sustain them, and build infrastructure to dampen imperialist ambitions. A German friend of mine who lived in Russia for years tells me to forget it, because it‘s just not in their DNA. But I‘m like Bobby Kennedy, Sr. on this. I think of things that never were, and say, „why not?“

[Irish_Dem]

29. So the US lets the Ukrainians go into the meat grinder

to bring down Russia but not destroy her.

Yes I agree with you. Putin could have been much more powerful on
the global stage using his resources to build a economic powerhouse.
He is the richest man in the world by siphoning off Russia's wealth.
But can never spend all the money he has stolen. And the corruption
is interfering with his military goals.

He could have been vastly wealth and powerful if he had been less
corrupt and just went the economic powerhouse route.

The same with China. They are going to spend a vast fortune to get control
of the Pacific. Their economy is hurting and foreign investors are rethinking
their involvement there. Why not drop the aggression and hostility and
make money and power grab via the economic power house route?

That is what I would do if I was going for world domination.

[marmar]

12. Pay cuts for 45, Tucker Carlson, MTG, Gaetz, Lindsey Graham, Ted Cruz etc

[wnylib]

47. Russian oligarchs still might find them useful in

in manipulating economic markets that they are invested in, like oil and gas, various minerals. They can still do that through payoffs and lures, without a solid government structure.

[Golden Raisin]

14. I suspect they will find a new "Tsar" of some sort.

That seems to be their default fallback even when the individuals are very different in each epoch. China will be after minerals and land in Siberia/Arctic. US politics will smell a little fresher if insidious Russian interference terminates or lessens.

[cachukis]

15. Russian oil will be a prize for those still needing it.

The west has recognized the shortcomings of easy energy. India and China have sizable energy demands and transportation via vessel is a complication, especially for China.
I suspect China will look for opportunity with whomever can connect Russian oil to Chinese power needs. If China is to recover from some of its economic havoc, it will need cheap power. I suspect China is watching more closely Russia than Taiwan.
They are not so stupid as to waste their economy in rebuilding a functional modern society.
Russian Oligarchs have stolen capital that means little in rubles.
The chase for money is the game.

[DavidDvorkin]

16. When the dust settles, the EU and NATO will share a border with China.

[True Dough]

19. Please, please, please

let Navalny survive to become Russia's next leader.

[pandr32]

22. If only.

[brooklynite]

20. What happened to world order when the Soviet Union collapsed?

Not much.

[Sogo]

21. What, exactly, will a Russian collapse look like?

How will be know when/if it happens?

Is there some indication that it's imminent, thus your question?

[mahina]

23. Putin gone.

No clear successor, breakup to regions again, fighting breaking out between regions, warlords. Etc.
Think Iraq post-Saddam, Afghanistan pre-Taliban, like that, but with nuclear weapons. Good times.

I don’t actually think that is likely to happen. If Putin bails or is put out of our misery, I expect there’s a clear successor in place.

I am no expert just a lady sitting on an island in the middle of the pacific ocean who doesn’t know anything I don’t read on the Internet.

[Kablooie]

24. Probably the same as it did when it collapsed in the 1980's.

The Russians never seem to be able to get their act together and join the rest of the world.

[Chainfire]

30. If the Russian government collapsed, and the oligarchs dethroned, it would become a situation

where the world's most ruthless people would come for their oil. It would be a feeding frenzy.

Russia needs a good old fashioned revolution like 1917, with the government and oligarchs getting a case of the disease that took Nicholas and family, but I don't think that the people are up for it; they have been beaten down for too long.

The thing that I worry about is Putin going all Hitler on us when the end is near and decide to take everything and everyone with him. His tanks may not work, his Navy may be broken down, he may be running out of criminal foot soldiers, but we don't want to find out his nuclear capability by experience. Russia has about 15 nuclear attack subs, each capable of destroying a dozen or so cities, hopefully our Navy has a crosshair on all of them. A land based ICBM can fly from Moscow to New York in a half hour...None of us mortals know how many, if any, we could knock down.

It would be somewhat depressing to lose a hundred or so of our biggest cities overnight.

[FSogol]

42. Why would the oligrachs be dethroned? One will step in to replace Putin. They'll pull out of

Ukraine and it will be business as usual.

[haele]

25. Not much. It's just going to be "business".

It's like a shake-up in one mob, it will only affect the other mob families to see who is going to fill the void.

Haele.

[Renew Deal]

27. Depends on the type of collapse

If it's just losing all territory in Ukraine, not much right away. They will come back meaner in around 20 years and try again.

If you mean they brake up into 20 countries, then that will have an impact.

[inwiththenew]

33. Could be like 1991 or could be the end of the world as we know it

If some rogue general can seize power long enough to order to full nuclear launch it would trigger a nuclear exchange between us and them with 10s of millions dead in both countries in a matter of days.

[roamer65]

35. Chinese Siberia.

It is coming.

Siberian raw materials plus Chinese manufacturing will make it the global superpower.

[Grasswire2]

37. what would happen to Russia's seat at U.N. if it collapsed and went rogue? nt

[Grasswire2]

41. my point: I want Russia OFF the Security Council. nt

[Xolodno]

38. A lot on this thread think its roses and rainbows, in reality, all hell will break loose.

For example, Putin does NOT want to see a break up of the USA. A nuclear armed country breaking up into a number of fiefdoms makes it increasingly if not disturbingly, dangerous situation. Now you don't have one leader to deal with, but a number and some unhinged. Nuclear war becomes more likely if not inevitable. Imagine DeSantis in charge of a nuke arsenal.

That's the same situation our own government fears. When Yeltsin and company (plus drunk off their asses in a Dacha) decided to dissolve the USSR in a soft coup, Gorbachev's first response to them that they made a major mistake and the USA is probably nervous and on high alert because the nuclear arsenal of the USSR is no longer secure. Thankfully we got through that. But it was a very dangerous time, some arms dealers not long after started stating they could procure a nuclear warhead, we had to intervene heavily to make sure that didn't happen, imagine if Bin Laden got one? This shit is serious.

Further more, the United Russia party is the largest political party in Russia and believe it or not, Putin is the "dove" in it. Worse, the Russian Communist party is the next largest and they are even more hawkish. It would be like releasing the old pagan god of Russia called Chernibogh. Russia had no problem getting rid of the Tsar as they considered him European and not Russian. And a significant portion of the USSR was pissed off that Gorbachev didn't do more to preserve it. There is a very strong anti-west sentiment in Russia (nor can I blame them). I'll let you figure out what that means.

People here on DU calling Navalny to be released so he could be President, well, lets just say they aren't too bright. His party "Future of Russia", if memory serves me correctly, doesn't even have seat in the Duma (if they do, the have no influence) nor much public support. Him becoming President would be just like the overthrow of the elected government of Iran and installing the Shah as a dictator. However, the overthrow of Navalny would be be much faster, if not lightning speed.

The "Collapse or Russia" is nothing more than propaganda at worst or "feel good" story at best. It is not based on reality. Again should it happen, every major political leader in the world would shit their pants (of course there are some who believe in roses and rainbows, just like they stated we would be greeted as liberators in Iraq and could establish a democracy in Afghanistan, etc.). It would be a major disaster and if you think the anti-West sentiment in the rest of the world is bad now, it would be even worse later. Some nations would probably consider us the new "Axis" power.

And I'm only scratching the surface. Be careful what you wish for.

[crickets]

43. Thanks for the reality check. nt

[Kaleva]

39. Probably the same thing when the Soviet Union broke up