Why a New Hampshire special election shows Democrats can retake the state House
As Democrats across the country enjoyed a string of electoral successes on Tuesday night, they were joined by their compatriots in New Hampshire, who saw one of their own, former Nashua Alderman Marc Plamondon, romp in the special election in the closely divided state House. Plamondon's margin stands out not just because he far outperformed other Democratic candidates in his district, but because it's yet one more sign that Democrats are well-positioned to flip a Republican-held House seat in an upcoming special—a turn of events that would yield an exact tie in the 400-member chamber.
While the Hillsborough County district Plamondon successfully defended is safely blue, his 72-28 win amounts to a 43-point margin of victory. Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton, by contrast, both carried the same turf by 27 points, meaning Plamondon ran 16 points ahead of them. In New Hampshire's gigantic House, districts are very small, and so total turnout was as well—just around 200 votes—so it's wise not to read too much into a single data point. But fortunately, we have more.
Most notably, Democratic state Rep. Chuck Grassie prevailed in a do-over race in February after his November election ended in an exact tie. In that heavily scrutinized and very expensive rematch in Strafford County, Grassie won by 12 points—a huge improvement, needless to say, over his previous deadlock, but also over Biden's 7-point margin. And we've seen that pattern repeated in special elections nationwide this year: In aggregate, Democrats are running almost 7 points ahead of the 2020 presidential results in 18 total specials so far.
That brings us to the forthcoming special election in Rockingham County, which is nestled along New Hampshire's coast, right between Strafford and Hillsborough counties. Republican state Rep. Benjamin Bartlett resigned from the county's 1st District last month, and an election to fill his vacant seat is likely to take place in August or September.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/5/18/2169923/-Morning-Digest-Why-a-New-Hampshire-special-election-shows-Democrats-can-retake-the-state-House