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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsBarbara Lee issues CA-SEN poll
The research team of Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Associates (FM3), EVITARUS and HIT Strategies recently conducted a survey of 1,380 likely California primary voters to assess their views of the race for U.S. Senate.1 The survey results show a wide-open race, with no candidate attracting the support of more than about one-quarter of voters. In addition, after voters are presented with positive biographical statements about the three leading Democratic candidates, based on materials on their websites, the three Democrats are in a statistical dead heat.
Initial Vote
Eric Early (R) 27%
Katie Porter (D) 24%
Adam Schiff (D) 21%
Barbara Lee (D) 11%
After Positive Bios
Eric Early (R) 26% (-1)
Katie Porter (D) 24% (0)
Adam Schiff (D) 20% (-1)
Barbara Lee (D) 20% (+9)
In particular, given that she starts out with a lower level of name recognition than her Democratic opponents, Congresswoman Barbara Lee shows a remarkable potential to expand her support once voters learn more about her – nearly doubling her backing from 11% to 20%. The survey data confirm that the race will be highly competitive, and that once voters learn more about all three candidates they are all competitive in a race for a spot among the top two candidates that will head to a November runoff.
1 Methodology: From May 13-21, 2023, the research team of FM3, EVITARUS and HIT Strategies conducted 1,380 interviews with California voters considered likely to cast ballots in the March 2024 primary election. Interviews were conducted on landline and wireless phones, and online through invitations delivered by email and text message. The margin of error for the sample as a whole is +/- 4.0%; the margin of error for subgroups within the sample will be higher.
https://mcusercontent.com/31b479dbea5973b27a9d19670/files/6e00dc0b-88a5-afa0-6c4c-aa46d4eafc72/220_6784_Lee_for_US_Senate_Poll_Findings_Draft_1.docx_1_.pdf
Initial Vote
Eric Early (R) 27%
Katie Porter (D) 24%
Adam Schiff (D) 21%
Barbara Lee (D) 11%
After Positive Bios
Eric Early (R) 26% (-1)
Katie Porter (D) 24% (0)
Adam Schiff (D) 20% (-1)
Barbara Lee (D) 20% (+9)
In particular, given that she starts out with a lower level of name recognition than her Democratic opponents, Congresswoman Barbara Lee shows a remarkable potential to expand her support once voters learn more about her – nearly doubling her backing from 11% to 20%. The survey data confirm that the race will be highly competitive, and that once voters learn more about all three candidates they are all competitive in a race for a spot among the top two candidates that will head to a November runoff.
1 Methodology: From May 13-21, 2023, the research team of FM3, EVITARUS and HIT Strategies conducted 1,380 interviews with California voters considered likely to cast ballots in the March 2024 primary election. Interviews were conducted on landline and wireless phones, and online through invitations delivered by email and text message. The margin of error for the sample as a whole is +/- 4.0%; the margin of error for subgroups within the sample will be higher.
https://mcusercontent.com/31b479dbea5973b27a9d19670/files/6e00dc0b-88a5-afa0-6c4c-aa46d4eafc72/220_6784_Lee_for_US_Senate_Poll_Findings_Draft_1.docx_1_.pdf
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Barbara Lee issues CA-SEN poll (Original Post)
brooklynite
May 2023
OP
Porter, Lee and Schiff have until Dec 9 to withdraw and repetition for their House seats.
brooklynite
May 2023
#5
Remind me - If Feinstein leaves office for whatever reason, how is that resolved?
Algernon Moncrieff
May 2023
#6
Mz Pip
(28,456 posts)1. The Democrats will keep the seat.
I’ll support the nominee but will vote for Porter in the primary. Wouldn’t be surprised to see two Democrats face off in the general election like last time.
Response to brooklynite (Original post)
Mr.Bill This message was self-deleted by its author.
brooklynite
(96,882 posts)3. Easy to look up
Happy Hoosier
(9,535 posts)4. I think Schiff would do great in the Senate.
I also like Lee. Porter is cool, but she endorsed Nina Turner. Disqualifying unless she apologizes for that, IMO.
brooklynite
(96,882 posts)5. Porter, Lee and Schiff have until Dec 9 to withdraw and repetition for their House seats.
Algernon Moncrieff
(5,961 posts)6. Remind me - If Feinstein leaves office for whatever reason, how is that resolved?
Does CA have a special election or does Newsome nominate and the legislators approve? If the latter. Who would be the most likely pick? I'd think it'd be Schiff, Lee, or Porter but what do I know?