Left-behind polling memo shows abortion hurting outlook for GOP

[RandySF]

One party’s trash is another party’s treasure.

In the latest chapter of what seems to be a long-running series about Roll Call getting ahold of things people shouldn’t leave behind, a binder from a conference an outside group held for top GOP Senate staffers at a West Virginia resort had some cautionary signs about the 2024 climate.

The generic ballot has shifted toward Democrats, with Republicans losing ground among independents on the abortion issue, according to a new polling memo from a GOP firm that fell into Democratic hands.

“There has been a 6 point swing in the last year on the Generic Senate ballot from R+3 to D+3. This movement is [led] overwhelmingly by Independent and NEW voters that identify abortion as one of their top issues,” according to a “National Issue Study” by co/efficient, which was in the news recently as one of the pollsters for Kentucky Republican gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron.

The poll, conducted April 20-24, had similar findings on the House side. “There has been a 10 point swing in the last year on the Generic House Ballot from R+6 to D+4. This movement is [led] overwhelmingly by Independent and NEW voters that identify abortion as one of their top issues,” it said on slide seven. “Reproductive Freedom is the #1 issue among those that DID NOT vote in 2020.”




https://rollcall.com/2023/05/24/left-behind-polling-memo-shows-abortion-hurting-outlook-for-gop/

[no_hypocrisy]

1. What the GOP discounted:

1. That Americans, both Republicans and Democrats would learn to accept the aftermath of the Dobbs decision as a fait accompli.

2. And once accepted, the GOP could move the narrative past Dobbs.

3. That once a population has enjoyed freedom (in this case 50+ years), it won't accept anything less.

4. The Party wouldn't have enough base and independent votes to prevail from hereonin.

[bucolic_frolic]

2. "Reproductive Freedom" is a clarion call and an inclusive campaign banner

Freedom from these GOP jerks trying to control everyone's lives even though the GOP has boundary issues, collective Borderline Personality Disorder, and it's all none of their damn business.

[Skittles]

3. GOOD

FUCK THAT FASCIST TRASH

[CousinIT]

4. "Reproductive Freedom is the #1 issue among those that DID NOT vote in 2020."

This makes NO SENSE to me. if Reproductive Freedom is important ie: #1 issue - WHY WOULD YOU *EVER* NOT VOTE?

This is the thing that yanks my chain about all this. When I hear people talk about Roe v Wade being overturned and draconian abortion restriction enacted in their states, my FIRST QUESTION is "I wonder if they bothered to VOTE?"

My guess is, a LOT of them didn't. They took these rights for GRANTED. They didn't vote in 2016, 2018, 2020...etc. And NOW...?

NOW???

NOW??? NOW it's too late. It will be HELL getting rights back that FIFTY PERCENT of the US population HAD but are now lost BECAUSE. PEOPLE. DIDN'T. BOTHER. TO. VOTE. (at least partially for that reason)

“Reproductive Freedom is the #1 issue among those that DID NOT vote in 2020.”

Those NOT voters - CONDEMNED American women to reproductive slavery.

My guess is they may NOT vote in 2024 either. And why? "Well I don't like Biden or Trump (or whoever the Asshole Party nominee is)". OR, "Biden is too ooooollld!" OR "there's no poooint!" OR "I don't like...blah blah blah". They didn't like Hillary.

They don't like their choices on the ballot. Wah. Wah. Wah.

SO NOW WOMEN IN AMERICA HAVE NO REPRODUCTIVE CHOICES because some voters would not GROW UP and goddamned VOTE for who the nominees ARE, preferring instead to whine and pine for some fantasy world where their PERFECT candidate is on the ballot and because they're not, then the voter stays home.

UGH!

[Phoenix61]

9. Lots of new voters who turned 18 after the 2020 election.

They are overwhelmingly pro-choice.

[Hekate]

12. An awful lot of people were born after Roe v Wade. They really had no idea. It's our job now to

… make damn sure they get the message, including all the horror stories pouring out of the red states.

[raising2moredems]

15. For some voters..

It takes a gobsmack like Roe being overturned to wake them up. They did not realize that the puke rats lied under oath about precedence. And heaven knows what other real/perceived events that is causing them to "get even".

[GoCubsGo]

5. Am I the only one who wonders how much of this is really carelessness?

I can't help but feel this binder was "left behind" on purpose. This kind of thing has been happening way too often, and to me, it's starting to reek of dirty tricks. They can't possibly all be that careless with party information, can they?

[Hekate]

13. How can it be a dirty trick if it benefits humanity?

[GoCubsGo]

16. Well, the information on the memo could be fake...

I wouldn't put it past the GOP to try to head-fake their opponents this way.

[tanyev]

6. GOP conclusion: "We need to go after contraception, too."

[Hekate]

14. That has already been telegraphed by Clarence and a thousand others, so we know

[Qutzupalotl]

7. Good. Another 2 points and we can overcome their extreme gerrymandering.

If they want to be competitive, all they have to do is backtrack on their anti-choice record. But they can't or won't, so it's essentially a monkey trap (which google).

[GhostHunter22]

8. It's striking how much the state-level GOP

has gone overboard in the direction of attacking a woman's right to choose.

One of the very few things most of us in the country agree on is that abortion and the right to choose is important and needs to be protected to a greater or lesser degree - but protected nonetheless. And yet the double and tripling down on attacking women's rights is astonishing if the GOP wants to win anything beyond their own primaries ever again.

It feels to me that the right has gotten MUCH more brazen and crazy after Trump left office than they ever were before - on a whole host of issues. They lost in 2020 and yet they act as if they won, and won with huge margins and mandates in every corner of the country. Very odd behavior.

[CaptainTruth]

10. Authoritarian behavior.

[Quanto Magnus]

11. I don't think they care

everything is so gerrymandered they are protected from any consequences....