Could Texas go blue in 2024? Trend is state is becoming purple.

[Willis88]

[TexasDem69]

1. I really hope so

But I really doubt it. 2020 wasn’t particularly close—as unpopular as Trump was he still won by roughly 3.5%. And Abbott hammered Beto in 2022.

[Willis88]

9. Even Texas doesn't want to be Florida Man

If DeSantis, I can see dems pulling an upset in 2024.

[ExWhoDoesntCare]

48. Why?

Where do you get evidence for this assertion?

Because nothing I've seen from the state indicates they're getting significantly less red by 2024.

[ProudMNDemocrat]

2. Abbott and his crew are doing their best...

To control what happens in Harris County.

In retrospect, that could backfire as more voters in Texas become more aware, they will be even more determined to turn out to vote and fight the forces to suppress them.

[ExWhoDoesntCare]

47. Well, you keep thinking that if you want to

But, honestly, that's not how it will work.

You're assuming facts not in evidence.

Few people pay attention to political inside baseball like the Harris County election theft. I bet if you asked Harris County residents about it, you wouldn't get a majority who know about it. And a whole bunch of those who do think it's a great idea.

I strongly suspect that the numbers of those who know about it, never mind disagree with it, does not improve in the way you think it would when you get outside of Harris County.

There is no reason to think that an overwhelming number cares about or opposes the issue at all. No survey has shown it, so you'll need to explain where you get the idea that they would.

[Freethinker65]

3. Nope.

They recently voted Statewide for Abbott. Some democratic gains in the State would be nice though.

[TwilightZone]

4. Unlikely.

There are still roughly one million more Republican voters than Democrats in the state. It's trending purple, but it's likely going to take longer than many anticipate until we have the numbers to win statewide races.

[Willis88]

7. Any estimates as to when?

Texas is rapidly growing, and a lot of that growth is from blue states. A fact that repubs in Texas are well aware, hence the unconstitutional attempt to disenfranchise Harris voters.

[ExWhoDoesntCare]

45. Why do you assume that people moving from blue states are liberal?

Because many of them are not.

[Ilsa]

5. I've been on DU 20 years and heard it was possible since 2008.

Furthermore, Abbott's Legislature can disqualify Harris County (Houston) any time the results go Blue.

[Willis88]

8. Hoping there is karma - law of unintended consequences. Galvanize people to vote in greater numbers

[Elessar Zappa]

23. But it does get more purple with each cycle.

If that trend continues, then Texas will go blue at some point. It may be 2032 or 2036 but I strongly believe it’ll happen.

[scarletlib]

32. Even longer than that. I am still waiting.

[Kathays120783]

53. I don't think so

As a former Texan ( born and raised in San Antonio) the first 20 years of my life, I couldn’t wait to get the hell out…. But I can honestly say I have never been more excited and hopeful and see these numbers…. Abbott is going down….. so is Cruz….. just give trump more time to do what he does best- run his campaign into the ground…. His cognitive decline is abysmal-

[dalton99a]

6. Next year? No.

[617Blue]

10. Ha Ha Ha.....

just stop.

[2naSalit]

11. According to this guy, already is...

I think he's right. And I think that a quieter, more sophisticated version is going on in my state because it was purple until 2016. (4:08)

[uponit7771]

18. Love Beau but he left out Texas having the lowest voter access in the union. That has nothing to do

... enthusiasm that's autocracy

https://sanantonioreport.org/surprise-texas-ranks-among-worst-states-for-voting-access/

[Willis88]

35. Interesting. Thanks for sharing.

[JCMach1]

12. No, too much voter suppression going on

[uponit7771]

16. Great minds, Texas has the lowest voter access in the union (link)

https://sanantonioreport.org/surprise-texas-ranks-among-worst-states-for-voting-access/

[JCMach1]

50. Texas has ID law, it currently takes 4+ months for and IF, or DL appointment

Where the document requirements are off the chain burdensome.

They also created a system (including their websites) that always seem to give incomplete, or incorrect information.

Took months and months for my 77yo mom WITH all proper documentation to get her ID and voter registration.

[Raftergirl]

13. No.

[uponit7771]

14. Texas has the lowest voter "**ACCESS** in the union, it's technically an autocracy

Texas is already blue, it's just repressed... Lower voter turnout In the last election than before

Voter suppression works and MAGA 8s going to put it into overdrive

[obnoxiousdrunk]

15. Nope.

[edhopper]

17. Not when they don't count the votes

from Houston, which they already passed laws to do exactly that.

[In It to Win It]

19. I doubt it

[brooklynite]

20. Could Texas go blue in 2020?

Could Texas go blue in 2018?

No.

When people point out that "Beto O'Rourke only lost by 2 pts", they fail to realize that the size of the Texas electorate is so big that 2 pts equals a quarter of a million votes. That's a huge margin to cover, and I see no sign the Democrats are able to cover it today.

[Autumn]

21. No. That myth has been going around since 08.

[Polybius]

22. Biden's not winning Texas

It's more right-wing than Florida.

[Demsrule86]

24. I never say never...I do believe the 24 election will favor us a great deal.

Time will tell. Certainly, every state deserves to have folks campaign there...without a 50-state strategy, we will have no chance at winning the majorities that we need in Congress to accomplish what needs to be done.

[Polybius]

28. Still do the 50 state strategy

Or as I like to say, the 47 state strategy, since 3 are hopeless. But sure, campaign in Texas. We won't win the Presidency there, but may make local gains (although I doubt it in a Presidential year, but we can try).

[dawg]

26. Texas was the third weakest red state in 2020, behind NC and Florida.

It's way more purple now than places like Iowa and Indiana.

[Polybius]

29. An incredibly unpopular (with Covid still freshly on our minds) Trump won by 6 points in 2020

I don't see how we do better, but feel free to bookmark.

[Kathays120783]

54. Absolutely...

I agree- I was born and raised in San Antonio- no longer live in Texas- and I have never been so excited for an election for Texas as I am this year…..

[SWBTATTReg]

25. After the former moronic secretary of state confessing to stealing the election for tRUMP,

Texans I think are mad and bound to vote massively in numbers to make it up.

[Sky Jewels]

27. We hear this every election.

Texas never fails to disappoint.

But, stranger things have happened.

[Silent3]

30. If actual voter preference mattered, perhaps

But Republicans are using their current power to suppress Democratic votes, even setting themselves up to override elections where Democrats win.

Texas probably can't go blue until the voters are so overwhelmingly blue that Republican corruption is overpowered. That probably won't happen anytime soon.

[Initech]

31. They've been saying this the last 4 elections.

Until it actually happens, I will believe it. Fox News has an iron grip on that state. We need to start loosening it now.

[Aristus]

38. Supporters of this idea cited the growing population of Hispanic and Latino voters in Texas.

But it looks like the trend is toward more Hispanic voters supporting the GOP due to cultural conservatism. Texas turning Blue is going to have to wait.

[Celerity]

39. and we have a winner

But it looks like the trend is toward more Hispanic voters supporting the GOP due to cultural conservatism.

plus a huge amount (nationwide) switching from Catholicism to RW fundie evangelicalism

I have posted on this for years

[LetMyPeopleVote]

33. Texas will turn blue

There are a good number of die hard Democrats working to turn Texas blue. Greg Abbot and the Texas GOP are working hard to stop this process. There are some demographic trends that make me smile. Texas is becoming less rural and more urban/suburban. The GOP strenght is in rural areas. Texas is becoming younger and more liberal as older GOP voters are dying off.

[Hortensis]

36. This. :) The demographic progression is only one of the

inexorable writings on the wall. When, not if what the Republicans have become is rejected by most.

[TexasDem69]

34. We have family in Texas

Who are lifelong Republicans and voted for Biden in 2020. I’m sure that happened all over the state and Trump still won comfortably. Abbott beat Beto by 10 points in 2022. I wonder if McConaughey would have a chance against Abbott or as a senate candidate but someone incredibly popular as a person is the only hope I see. Sort of a reverse Schwarzenegger.

[f_townsend]

37. Democrats poured millions into Florida

and got nothing. Meanwhile, states that should have never have turned GOP, like Wisconsin, got neglected and didn't get campaign money, and Democrats lost their grip there, too.

Unless a genius Democratic strategist emerges, I don't see Texas turning blue anytime soon.

[Celerity]

40. No. nt

[BlueTsunami2018]

41. No. Maybe never will.

With the amount of suppression and the fact that Hispanic voters are more conservative than conventional wisdom expects, it may never go blue.

[pinkstarburst]

42. Not any time soon

Makes me sad to say this, as a Texan. Beto was our best hope. We have absolutely no one who can come close to winning a statewide election like he almost did against Ted Cruz, and I don't see Biden/Harris having a shot, sorry.

[Johonny]

43. Every 4 year I hear Texas and Florida are going blue

And they never do

[ITAL]

46. Obama won twice in Florida

It hasn't been that long.

Texas hasn't voted for a Democrat since Jimmy Carter.

[Willis88]

52. Good point

Hopefully there is DeSantis backlash with the discrimination against LBGQ+

[Kathays120783]

55. Not true

We had Ann Richard’s as Governor- a female Democrat from 1991-1995. People need to show up to vote…. No matter how hard- whatever it takes…

[ExWhoDoesntCare]

44. LOL No. That won't happen

The rural areas are deep-fried red, and enough of the MAGAts live in burbs and cities to overtake the liberal strongholds. As Latinos become less "otherized" in the state--and more of them join evangelical churches, they're becoming more MAGAt, too.

I hope it will go red, but hope counts for bugger all in politics. I expect it to stay red until I die, because the odds say that is the more likely scenario.

Lots of hate in Texas. Always has been.

[UTUSN]

49. Never underestimate the Underclass Subservience in an Apartheid locale

[Captain Stern]

51. Yes. I suppose it could.

Anything is possible, I guess.

But when the 'trend' is that the state is 'becoming' 'purple"...that's not looking good for 2024.

I'd say more like 2044.