The Murder Rate Is Suddenly Falling

[applegrove]

The Murder Rate Is Suddenly Falling

June 5, 2023 at 1:04 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 52 Comments

https://politicalwire.com/2023/06/05/the-murder-rate-is-suddenly-falling/

"SNIP.......

Jeff Asher: “Official crime statistics are only released after a substantial delay, so for nearly a decade I’ve collected and compiled big-city crime data as a way to assemble a more real-time picture of national murder trends. And this spring, I’ve found something that I’ve never seen before and that probably has not happened in decades: strong evidence of a sharp and broad decline in the nation’s murder rate.”

“The United States may be experiencing one of the largest annual percent changes in murder ever recorded, according to my preliminary data. It is still early in the year and the trend could change over the second half of the year, but data from a sufficiently large sample of big cities have typically been a good predictor of the year-end national change in murder, even after only five months.”

.......SNIP"

"SNIP.......

Murder is down about 12 percent year-to-date in more than 90 cities that have released data for 2023, compared with data as of the same date in 2022. Big cities tend to slightly amplify the national trend—a 5 percent decline in murder rates in big cities would likely translate to a smaller decline nationally. But even so, the drop shown in the preliminary data is astonishing.

.......

“It is possible that police departments have returned to some of the proactive work that they curtailed during the COVID pandemic and after George Floyd, activities that may be inhibiting some gun violence,” Jerry Ratcliffe, a criminal-justice professor at Temple University in Philadelphia, told me. In Baltimore, for example, a new effort to focus policing resources on the small subset of the population that is believed to be responsible for a disproportionate share of violence has produced promising initial results.

......SNIP"

[marble falls]

1. A function of fewer targets?

[applegrove]

5. More targets in nazis' doorsteps and driveways.

[Straw Man]

10. No.

A function of fewer targets?

The key word is "rate."

[1WorldHope]

2. I can hear it now, more people have guns so it is safer. 🤮

[mahina]

3. Wonderful news, thank you for pisting.

[Johnny2X2X]

4. It spiked in 2020

During Covid and under Trump. Was basically noise either way in 2021 and 2022, good to see 2023 will likely be back down.

[mopinko]

6. yeah. yty at this point is kinda meaningless.

[maxsolomon]

7. Exactly. Covid was a literally once in a 100 years phenomenon.

Yes, the US is still crazy town, but it's nowhere near where it was back in the 70s 80s 90s for chrissakes.

[Johnny2X2X]

8. Social Media

By all stats, crime was way worse in the 70s, 80s, and 90s than it is today. This is across all types of crimes. You wouldn't know it though because apps like Nextdoor and Facebook are sounding boards for every petty crime to get attention in a community.

I was a paper boy in the mid 80s, had a huge route, 120 houses. Talking to my customers weekly or monthly (we collected in person), I heard about endless petty crimes and break ins. Someones shed, garage, or basement was always getting broke into. Someone's tools, bikes, or pool supplies were always gettting stolen. If Nextdoor was around back then, it would have been insane. And our neighborhood was fine, very safe overall.

People have this idea that there's a crime wave when crime is near 50 year lows across the board. People see modest 5% spikes as a wave when we're still down 60% from the peaks of previous decades. It's like we move from 100 to 30 and a bump back up to 35 is seen as a crime wave.

[maxsolomon]

9. think about car stereo thefts - can you even steal a car stereo now?

so many fewer things to fence, hence the evolution in items that get stolen: Cat Converters, gasoline, any metal that's not nailed down, and even those that are.

[Johnny2X2X]

11. Good point

Car stereos just don't have the same ammount of currency as they used to.

And catalytic converters is an organized crime activity. Thy busted one ring that stole $1/2 Billion in converters. They have always been valuable, but now they have organized buyers and recyclers.

And porch priates of course are on the rise, but that's because we now buy so much of what we buy online. And before door cameras, porch pirates used to be called, "I don't know what the hell happened to the package in shipping." It was just a lost in shipping thing that companies or customers would have to eat.

[sarisataka]

12. Kind of flies in the face

Of the narratives of epidemic of gun violence and that it is too dangerous to leave one's home.

I believe, if this holds true, that some will ironically be upset.