A Closer Look at 2022 Gubernatorial Election Results Shows Why New York Democrats Must Pay Better At
Perhaps the biggest finding is that Latinos—traditionally among the most loyal Democrats in the state—moved toward the Republican candidate. Though the movement is not large enough for Democrats to be alarmed, unless Democrats engage and invest resources in Latinos now, they can potentially see a much larger defection among Latinos.
Key findings of my new analysis of voter data by election district include:
-Turnout in 2022 increased by over 200,000 votes statewide compared to the previous gubernatorial general election in 2018, when Democratic Governor Andrew Cuomo fended off Republican County Executive Marc Molinaro’s challenge.
-Despite this statewide increase, New York City saw a 15% decline in voting participation (from over 2 million voters to just under 1.8 million). By contrast, many counties outside the city, like Nassau, Suffolk, and Erie, saw increases in voting participation compared to the previous gubernatorial election. The largest increase was seen in Erie, Governor Hochul’s home county.
-Statewide, Latino voting participation declined 19% from 2018 to 2022, with just under half-a-million Latinos going to the polls in 2022 (Estimates are based on my analysis of election results and the use of demographic modeling data.)
-The largest decline in Latino voting participation across overall was in New York City. Only 285,176 Latino voters cast a ballot, a 28% decline from 2018.
-Of the 285,000+ Latino voters who voted in New York City in 2022, 50% were registered Democrats compared to almost 60% in 2018, an almost 10% decline in voting participation among Latino Democrats in the city.
-Latino support in New York City for the top of the Democratic ticket declined by over 10% from 2018 to 2022. In majority Latino election districts across the city in 2018, support for Cuomo was 90-95%. Support for Molinaro registered below 5% in most of those districts. In 2022, support for Hochul in the same areas hovered between 78% and 82%. Roughly 20% of Latinos in these areas supported Zeldin.
https://www.gothamgazette.com/130-opinion/12032-2022-election-new-york-democrats-latino-voters
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