Washington Post quotes senior Western intelligence analyst: Prigozhin has so far failed in key goal

[f_townsend]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/06/24/russia-ukraine-war-news-wagner-prigozhin/#link-M3CJLB46RJHLZKFYQIPGMAEHNM

A senior Western intelligence official said that Prigozhin’s rebellion represents an irreparable breach with Putin, and that he must realize now that there is no return for him to the status and wealth he had accumulated over decades with backing from the Kremlin. There is “no way back” for Prigozhin, the official said. “He overplayed his hand.”

As a result, Prigozhin now faces a fight for his own life in the struggle to fend off Russian forces. “Someone will have to blink first,” the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity, citing the sensitivity of the situation. “But you know well what must happen to those [Putin] calls traitors.”

The same official said that Putin’s invocation of the 1917 Bolshevik revolution signaled the seriousness with which he views the Prigozhin rupture. Putin, who fashions himself a learned historian, “would not invoke 1917 for no reason — it tells a lot how they perceive the stakes.”

The same official also said that “if Prigozhin intended to drive a wedge between the command of Russian Federation Armed Forces and the Kremlin, he failed already,” meaning that the rebellion so far does not appear to have triggered a broader rupture between Putin’s inner circle and the military leaders Prigozhin detests.

[alittlelark]

1. Sounds like something a 'disinformation campaign' would put out

It truly does.

[f_townsend]

2. The Washington Post and/or its western intelligence source are part of a "disinformation campaign"?

[alittlelark]

15. An Unnamed intelligence analyst?

Sounds like ‘people are saying…….’

tRump put a LOT of ppl in senior positions.

[stopdiggin]

19. translation: this is not the story I want to hear .. -(nt)-

[Bernardo de La Paz]

5. If you are going to smear, be specific. Who is disinforming who about which side?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. To this plebe I don't expect the coup to succeed but I expect it to create as much chaos as possible

[alittlelark]

16. An 'unnamed source' seems to be rooting' 4 pUtin.

[Celerity]

23. So much news reporting on subjects far beyond Russia uses unnamed sources.

Having unnamed sources in no way proves it's disinformation.

Around 25 years before I was born, an unnamed source called Deep Throat helped kick off the downfall of Nixon.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

3. High command seems to be with Putin, but a few in lower levels have thrown in with Prigozhin. nt

[harumph]

4. Bullshit. It's a little early for these kinds of prognostications.

My prediction is this is an excuse for the military to declare that Putin
has lost the confidence of the 'people.' Watch for it.

Edited to add: Nobody is Putin's friend high command or no - they all hate him but are afraid of him. If they
feel the king is sufficiently weakened, they'll pile on -because for the moment they're too timid to stick
their necks out. Everybody with any brains knows the Ukraine war is a fiasco of Titanic proportions.
The sanctions although not devastating have hurt them. Russia is spiraling. Generally military guys
are loyal to the country. Putin is only loyal to himself.

[spooky3]

6. Putin pushes traitors out of windows.

We let them luxuriate at home for years.

[GreenWave]

7. Are these the same "experts" that predicted Ukraine would fall in the first few days?

[highplainsdem]

8. One unnamed source, speculating too early.

[yardwork]

9. Other analysts don't seem to think that Putin is in a very strong position.

[Bev54]

12. So far I am not seeing what this western intelligence official is seeing

Russian forces are passively letting Prigozhin forces move forward or offering little resistance and some are joining Wagner. None of us know what is going to happen, including the main players. My only hope is that they choke off the supplies to the troops in Ukraine and thus they all retreat out of Ukraine territory. I don't think Prigozhin cares about that, he and his buddy oligarchs want their high living back.

[mn9driver]

13. The situation is fluid. A Wagner force is moving pretty rapidly towards Moscow

and Putin’s plane has relocated to St. Petersburg from Moscow. I think there is a lot of furious calculating going on in the Russian military command right now.

[modrepub]

17. Not High Stakes Poker

If you're a higher up and you pick the wrong side, you're not just going to loose all your money and go home. More like you'll loose all your money and if you're lucky your death will be quick and not a slow, painful and humiliating one.

And it's not just higher ups that will need to choose sides. Those in lower ranks will be given opportunities to move up in the pecking order if they can determine who will win and they contribute enough to get the victors attention.

We'll probably have some idea where this is going by early next week. It's somewhat interesting that the coup got started late in the weekly news cycle (and bled out into the weekend).

[JCMach1]

14. Still doesn't mean Army won't sit on its hands while someone takes out Putin

[Arazi]

18. We don't know that yet. All bets are off until Moscow imo

The key point will be when the Wagner forces actually engage the Moscow “fortress” protections.

Will they be able to fight, bribe, or coerce them into joining Wagner?

I’m damn sure the generals and elite oligarchs will go with whoever “wins” in Moscow

[Happy Hoosier]

20. It's a win-win for us.

Either way, Wagner is out of the fight in Ukraine. If this weakens the Russians in Ukraine beyond that, it’s gravy.

[Kaleva]

22. +1

[Kaleva]

21. Time will tell. It's very early yet.