Positive polling, past successes don't guarantee victory for abortion rights at the ballot box
Polls show that most Americans, even in red states, oppose the strict abortion bans Republican state lawmakers have enacted in the year since the U.S. Supreme Court struck down Roe v. Wade.
Emboldened by that fact, abortion rights advocates in multiple states might propose ballot initiatives for voters to consider in next year’s election, if not before. Last year, voters in six states — including conservative Kansas, Kentucky and Montana — endorsed abortion rights when presented with abortion-related ballot questions.
But in several states, Republicans have scrambled the political calculus by making it more difficult to place initiatives on the ballot or by requiring a supermajority of voters to approve them. GOP lawmakers had mixed success with such efforts this year, but they are likely to continue to push them in hopes of raising the barriers before the 2024 election.
GOP officials also could short-circuit ballot measures by, for example, tinkering with their language or rejecting the signatures on petitions, abortion rights supporters worry.
Maryland and New York are so far the only states where abortion rights measures are officially on the 2024 ballot. Each of those initiatives, placed on the ballot by legislators, would enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution. Voters in those deep-blue states almost certainly will approve them.
Everywhere else, the prospects for getting a citizen-generated abortion rights measure on the ballot, let alone winning voters’ approval, is murkier.
https://stateline.org/2023/06/30/positive-polling-past-successes-dont-guarantee-victory-for-abortion-rights-at-the-ballot-box/