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(8,361 posts)
Mon Jul 10, 2023, 01:14 PM Jul 2023

What We Can Learn From Falling Crime

The pandemic caused a lot of crime. But police reform can play a part in reducing it as well.


Serious crime is dropping across most of the United States. Homicides are down by an estimated 12 percent in the first half of 2023; as Jeff Asher writes at The Atlantic, if the trend holds up it would put the country about where it was before the pandemic, and make for one of the largest percentage drops in American history. In New York City, shootings are down by one-quarter.

Violent crime is a complex phenomenon influenced by many factors. But none of the case studies of plummeting crime rates indicate that throwing ever more money at police departments was the key to the new trend. In fact, the evidence reinforces the need to reform corrupt departments, to address the ongoing crisis of trust in so many cities.

Four stories are illustrative. The first and likely most representative is in Philadelphia, where as Ellie Rushing reports, shootings are down by about 20 percent and homicides down about 18 percent relative to last year (though still quite a bit higher than before COVID-19). That is despite the fact that, like most American cities, little has changed with respect to Philly crime policy. The district attorney and police chief and mayor are all the same people as last year, and the police department is still plagued with problems. The homicide clearance rate is up, to be fair, but only to 61 percent.

More from Ryan Cooper

( What will Republicans run on, other than how to hate your fellow man? )

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What We Can Learn From Falling Crime (Original Post) BeckyDem Jul 2023 OP
Don't tell this to even some DUers Johnny2X2X Jul 2023 #1
+1 BeckyDem Jul 2023 #2


(19,907 posts)
1. Don't tell this to even some DUers
Mon Jul 10, 2023, 01:22 PM
Jul 2023

I've been pointing this out for a while, crime spiked during Covid in he last year of the Trump administration. Starting falling in 2021 and 2022, now is falling fast in 2023. But even with the spike, it was always way down from historical highs of the 70s through 90s.

And don't ell NextDoor for sure, it's non stop fearmongering of the crime wave on there. Everytime someone walks by a parked car at night, it makes a post on NextDoor.

But crime is low, it's safe out there. Even some DUers have trouble accepting that.

And that's more, crime is higher in red states than blue states and it's not even close.

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