Now that Sweden is formally in NATO.....

[OAITW r.2.0]

There is an incredible wall of NATO countries facing Russia. Like, there is nothing left for Russia....except Ukraine.

So, I'd love to see NATO seize the moment and take the lead and say, "Ukraine....you deserve the membership, you are in". Spool up all air assets to monitor Belarus/Russian missile sites. And tell Putin-

(1) Leave Crimea and return to your borders, pre-2014.
(2) Send yourself to the Haag for a discussion of your warcrimes.

There is no reason to fear the Russian army. It doesn't exist without mercenaries. The only unknown are the nukes and I think NATO can force Russia to stand down from that option.

[Celerity]

1. We are not yet formally in, the Turkish and Hungarian parliaments still have to vote on it.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/10/politics/turkey-sweden-nato/index.html

Erdoğan dropping his opposition marks a major step forward, but does not mean that Sweden will immediately become the next member of the alliance. Stoltenberg did not offer a specific timeline for when Erdoğan would move the document forward to the Turkish Parliament, which must then vote to approve it. Hungary also has not voted to approve Sweden’s membership, though Stoltenberg said Monday that Hungary had made clear that it would not be the last to ratify Sweden’s bid.

Asked by a reporter when Sweden can be expected to officially become a NATO member, Stoltenberg was unwilling to commit to an answer, saying that it was up to Turkey to make an announcement and preferred to focus on the merits of a “historic day”.

“I think that we have to respect that every parliament has their own integrity, their own timelines, so I welcome that the president has made this clear that he will work with the parliament to ensure ratification, but exactly when has to be announced by the Turkish parliament,” Stoltenberg said, adding that the move was the result of a year of negotiations.

[OAITW r.2.0]

2. North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

How the fuck does Turkey get a veto on Sweden's suitability to be Party in this organization? (I know). I hope the price isn't EU membership, given their human rights abuses.

[Celerity]

4. Press statement following the meeting between Turkiye, Sweden, and the NATO Secretary General

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_217147.htm


NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, President of Türkiye Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and Prime Minister of Sweden, Ulf Kristersson


On 10 July, 2023, President Recep Tayyip Erdoǧan of Türkiye, Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson of Sweden, and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg met at the NATO Summit in Vilnius.

Since the last NATO Summit, Sweden and Türkiye have worked closely together to address Türkiye’s legitimate security concerns. As part of that process, Sweden has amended its constitution, changed its laws, significantly expanded its counter- terrorism cooperation against the PKK, and resumed arms exports to Türkiye, all steps set out in the Trilateral Memorandum agreed in 2022.

Sweden and Türkiye agree today to continue their cooperation under both the Trilateral Permanent Joint Mechanism established at the Madrid NATO Summit 2022, and under a new bilateral Security Compact that will meet annually at ministerial level and create working groups as appropriate. At the first meeting of this Security Compact, Sweden will present a roadmap as the basis of its continued fight against terrorism in all its forms and manifestations towards the full implementation of all elements of the Trilateral Memorandum, including article 4. Sweden reiterates that it will not provide support to YPG/PYD, and the organisation described as FETÖ in Türkiye.

Both Sweden and Türkiye agreed that counter-terrorism cooperation is a long-term effort, which will continue beyond Sweden’s accession to NATO. Secretary General Stoltenberg also reconfirmed that NATO categorically condemns terrorism in all its forms and manifestations. NATO will be significantly stepping up its work in this area, including by the Secretary General establishing, for the first time at NATO, the post of Special Coordinator for Counter-Terrorism.

We commit to the principle that there should be no restrictions, barriers or sanctions to defence trade and investment among Allies. We will work towards eliminating such obstacles.

Sweden and Türkiye have also agreed to step up economic cooperation, through the Türkiye-Sweden Joint Economic and Trade Committee (JETCO). Both Türkiye and Sweden will look to maximise opportunities to increase bilateral trade and investments. Sweden will actively support efforts to reinvigorate Türkiye’s EU accession process, including modernisation of the EU-Türkiye Customs Union and visa liberalisation.

On this basis, and given the imperatives of the deterrence and defence of the Euro- Atlantic area, Türkiye will transmit the Accession Protocol for Sweden to the Grand National Assembly, and work closely with the Assembly to ensure ratification.

[Celerity]

8. Multiple NATO members are not located on the North Atlantic (which includes the Baltic Sea)

Albania
Bulgaria
Croatia
Czechia
Greece
Hungary
Italy
Luxembourg
Montenegro
North Macedonia
Romania
Slovakia
Slovenia
Türkiye




European nations not in NATO after Sweden joins:

Andorra
Armenia
Austria
Azerbaijan
Belarus
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Cyprus
Georgia
Ireland
Kosovo
Liechtenstein
Malta
Moldova
Monaco
Russia
San Marino
Serbia
Switzerland
Ukraine
Vatican City

[GreenWave]

12. It took me a while, but I found Georgia over there.

Strange we do not hear too much antagonism about Georgia trying to join.

[relayerbob]

3. Well, getting ahead of yourself there

Sweden is not yet in, Austria has not committed that I am aware of, nor has Turkey actually ratified it. We are still some time away, probably weeks if not months.

Not sure how "NATO can force Russia" to do anything. I agree with the sentiments, but at the moment, they remain wishful thinking. For example, it is likely for #1 to occur, Putin will have to be dead and his replacement eager to get back to something resembling normal. There is no evidence that such a leader exists at this moment. Even Navalny is a hard core nationalist who isn't a fan of Ukraine and wants the return of the Russian Empire. Progozhin made noises like he would want to get out of the war that he knows they are losing but he backed down at his attempt, and seems unlikely he'll get a second chance. And several thousand nukes is a pretty big unknown. I sorta like living in my city/target.

[Celerity]

7. Austria is not in NATO. You were probably thinking of Hungary, who, now that Turkey has said they

will allow us into NATO, will vote to allow us in, even before Turkey.

[brush]

5. Russia is and expanse of land 11 times zones wide, the biggest nation on Earth, but that isn't...

for Putin. He grabbed for more with Ukraine but he didn't count on Biden being able to rally Europe to come together to defend it.

Why do people keep underestimating Joe Biden?

Dark Branden is a bad MFer.

[PortTack]

6. Karma! Ol Putin said one reason for his invasion was NATO advancing on his borders

Seriously….NATO has never once attacked Russia. He knew that. Such a blunder on his part.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

10. Putin is exploiting the self-destructive Russian paranoid psyche to motivate his troops & people.nt

[PortTack]

20. ☝️☝️☝️☝️☝️

[Bernardo de La Paz]

9. Not formally yet. Jumping the gun is bad karma. Please don't. . . . nt

[Bernardo de La Paz]

11. No country under attack can join NATO. Nobody needs NATO troops in Ukraine fighting Russians

Nobody needs that kind of escalation, though Ukraine surely needs troops and all the help it can get.

This is like how if Hitler had been stopped in Czechoslovakia, US troops would not have had to die in large numbers in Europe.

[Mr. Sparkle]

13. Letting Ukraine in immediately would mean all Nato members mobilizing for war straight away

It will never happen as at least one country would veto it.

[Irish_Dem]

14. Putin's goal of having regional control over Europe has backfired spectacularly.

A big lesson to China as well.

[Hortensis]

15. Of the 31 NATO nations, several formerly under Soviet control

and fearing they're on Putin's short to-do list, want Ukraine admitted quickly or on a short "path."

They fear Russia's military, including its Navy, and stepping up of Russia's political warfare within them. Ability to conduct ground war may be a problem, but I've read that Russia has so many missiles that there's effectively no concern that its war in Ukraine could run them out.

[Johnny2X2X]

16. Sweden will be in soon enough

Kind of a huge deal that deserves a lot more coverage, this was Biden deal making that got it done.

[brooklynite]

17. NATO can't just "say" Ukraine is now a member...

There are rules for joining, the most important being “no unresolved territorial disputes”. The reason being, if Ukraine was still at war with Russia when it joined, allNTo members would be obliged to go to war against Russia.

[Torchlight]

18. Putin is creating the very thing he wants extinguished:

A strong, unified front of western nations which is only growing larger at his expense. Putin's gone from being merely a failure to an object of worldwide mockery and international scorn.

Must really frustrate him to only now realize that hosing a forest fire with gasoline is not going to get him where he wants.

[Showbizkid]

19. Brining Ukraine into NATO is a suicidal action

Russia would (rightly) see that as an existential threat.

(Granted, it's an existential threat of its own creation, but we're well past that point).

[Emrys]

21. Putin's had his bluff called numerous times during his war on Ukraine.

There's no reason to think this would be any different.

What on earth does the " (rightly)" there mean? It seems to be doing a lot of heavy lifting beyond its capabilities.

Ukraine only presents an "existential" threat currently since Putin fucked up his invasion and the aftermath to the extent that his hold on internal power is wavering, and if you listen to any of his and his media's public pronouncements since the 2002 invasion, he's hell-bent on outright imperialism and genocide of Ukraine - and other Eastern European countries if he's not stopped decisively.

There's no reason to think that Ukraine would have any appetite to attack or invade Russia once it withdraws from Ukrainian territory. It'll have quite enough on its hands tidying up the mess Putin's troops and the process of repelling them will leave. It certainly wouldn't drag the rest of NATO into such an adventure if and when it gains membership, and other members would resist it decisively anyway.

What would be suicidal is to leave Russia with the idea that it can invade Ukraine again - or any other of its neighbours - with impunity. NATO membership will take that off the table.