A country slightly bigger than Texas is projected to match the US's population by 2050

[BlueWaveNeverEnd]

A country slightly bigger than Texas is projected to match the US's population by 2050 — and it shows how radically the world is going to change over the next three decades

In contrast to the countries facing down the possibility of an aging, shrinking populace, there are other parts of the world that are set to take the baton of population growth in the coming decades. Perhaps the most notable of these rapid-risers is Nigeria.

As recently as 1982, Nigeria had a population of fewer than 80 million people and was outside the world's 10 most populous countries. In the 41 years since, Nigeria's population has nearly tripled to 225 million, moving up to sixth on the list. And that is not expected to slow down.

According to the most recent UN projections, Nigeria will nearly double its population again by 2050 to an estimated 377 million. In the process, the country will leap-frog Pakistan and Indonesia and end up in a virtual tie with the US as the third most populous country in the world. That's incredible for a country that is just a bit bigger than the area of Texas.

Nigeria's stunning growth is also indicative of the growth of the African continent. According to the UN estimates, five of the eight countries that are expected to make up half of the world's population growth over the next 27 years are in Africa. In an interview with Africa News, Tighisti Amare, the Deputy Director of the Africa Programme Chatham House in London, pointed out that Africa is the fastest-growing continent and the youngest, noting that 70% of the population is under 30.

"The population growth is, of course, partly explained by improvement in level and access to public health," Amare said. "That has led to decrease in child mortality. And that by itself is good news. And the other good news is that also by having a young population, most African nations do not have the burden of a large elderly population that relies on taxes and pensions, which can be a strain on the economy as well."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/a-country-slightly-bigger-than-texas-is-projected-to-match-the-us-s-population-by-2050-and-it-shows-how-radically-the-world-is-going-to-change-over-the-next-three-decades/ar-AA1dJy8Q

The comments following the article show how scared this makes rightwingers

[jimfields33]

1. This isn't particularly good for environmental issues.

Not mentioned in the article of course. A lot of head in the sand behavior when it comes to population growth.

[EYESORE 9001]

3. Look at you - tippy-tapping your electrons all over the place

Driving around in a steel cage powered by liquid exploding dinosaurs. Eating food that gets trucked all over using the same dinosaur fuel.

The industrialized world must get its own act together before telling developing countries what to do.

[PCIntern]

7. 😁

“Liquid exploding dinosaurs 🦕”

That’s great! Hadn’t heard that one before….

[GenXer47]

8. lol dino salads really

Isn't it their ferns? 100% agree - the US per capita carbon footprint is 4x the global average. We gotta live lives where we mostly stay put, share living space more, and eat very small amounts of beef, if any. Chickens are ok. The fish are all contaminated. Pork's not too bad but was never very healthy in the first place.
And locally sourced fruits and veggies.

[honest.abe]

28. Oil actually formed from marine life.

Mostly algae and other small organisms.

Although I love the phrase “liquid exploding dinosaurs”.

[Initech]

26. It can't be good for the population either.

That many people in that small of an area - holy shit!

[bucolic_frolic]

2. They sent a lot of emails

Must have included a lot of online dating.

[dalton99a]

4. More Nigerian princes willing to transfer their vast sums of money to the bank accounts of Americans

It's fair to assume that the supply of Nigerian princes increases with the Nigerian population

[tavernier]

5. ...

[ecstatic]

6. Interesting but the landmass is too small for that to work

Squeezing 400 million people into an area the size of Texas? It would be unsustainable. I think nature steps in first.

[BlueWaveNeverEnd]

9. India is much much smaller than USA and has 1.4 billion

I think India is more densely populated now than Nigeria would be with 400 million. (maybe I'm wrong).

[former9thward]

21. You are right.

Nigeria pop. density is 586 per sq. mile. India is 1202 per sq. mile. So even if Nigeria's population doubles it would still be less dense than India is right now.

[Celerity]

15. Oh, 400 million is just the start. Multiple projections show at least double that by 2100, some

even show it topping a billion.

[roamer65]

17. Not with this coming.

https://earthbound.report/2021/03/23/the-uninhabitable-parts-of-the-earth/

By 2070, most of India will be unlivable.

[ecstatic]

20. I think we'll be back to the stone ages by then..

We've had amazing technological advancements and potential for even more, but rightwingers are going to blow it for the world and the planet. No way to know, but that's my opinion. lol

[Showbizkid]

23. These population projections never pan out

It’s never a geometric progression.

China is currently worrying about depopulation.

[Celerity]

24. It's from a large study & other data that show a massive DE-population in most of the world by 2100.

Researchers Say Earth Is Headed for "Jaw-Dropping" Population Decline

"It's extraordinary, we'll have to reorganize societies."

https://futurism.com/global-birth-rates-falling-precipitiously

People around the globe are having way fewer babies. By the year 2100, that might turn into a pretty big problem for humanity — rather than the relief one might expect. If they aren’t already, dozens of countries’ populations will be going into decline in this century, according to a new study published in the Lancet this week. 23 countries are expected to feel this effect intensify, with their populations dropping to half of what they are now by the year 2100.

The global population will peak at 9.7 billion around 2064, according to the new projection, and then drop off to 8.8 billion towards the end of the century. “That’s a pretty big thing; most of the world is transitioning into natural population decline,” Christopher Murray, co-author and researcher at the University of Washington, Seattle, told the BBC. “I think it’s incredibly hard to think this through and recognize how big a thing this is; it’s extraordinary, we’ll have to reorganize societies.”

The reality is that with more women receiving an education and entering the work force, combined with the wide availability of contraception, fertility rates are dropping, sometimes precipitously, around the world — a stark reversal of the baby boom following the Second World War. Countries including Spain, Portugal, and Thailand will have their populations more than halve by the end of the century — “jaw-dropping,” according to Murray.

But aren’t fewer humans better for a ravished world that’s rapidly being drained of its resources? The researchers suggest that there may be fewer babies being born, but any positive consequences for the environment would be offset by the challenges of a rapidly aging population. Much older populations “will create enormous social change,” Murray told the BBC. “Who pays tax in a massively aged world? Who pays for healthcare for the elderly? Who looks after the elderly? Will people still be able to retire from work?” “We need a soft landing,” he added.

snip

Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study

https://tinyurl.com/ybadb2q7

snip

Findings

The global TFR in the reference scenario was forecasted to be 1·66 (95% UI 1·33–2·08) in 2100. In the reference scenario, the global population was projected to peak in 2064 at 9·73 billion (8·84–10·9) people and decline to 8·79 billion (6·83–11·8) in 2100.

The reference projections for the five largest countries in 2100 were

India (1·09 billion [0·72–1·71],

Nigeria (791 million [594–1056]),

China (732 million [456–1499]),

the USA (336 million [248–456]),

and Pakistan (248 million [151–427]).



By 2050, 151 countries were forecasted to have a TFR lower than the replacement level

183 were forecasted to have a TFR lower than replacement by 2100.

23 countries in the reference scenario, including Japan, Thailand, and Spain, were forecasted to have population declines greater than 50% from 2017 to 2100

China's population was forecasted to decline by 48·0% (−6·1 to 68·4) by 2100.

China was forecasted to become the largest economy by 2035 but in the reference scenario, the USA was forecasted to once again become the largest economy in 2098.

CURRENT:

Africa is by far the main dystopian area in terms of far too high birth-rates:

2.1 is replacement level.

https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/total-fertility-rate

1 Niger 6.9
2 DR Congo 5.9
3 Mali 5.9
4 Chad 5.7
5 Angola 5.5
6 Nigeria 5.4
7 Burundi 5.4
8 Burkina Faso 5.2
9 Gambia 5.2
10 Uganda 5
11 Tanzania 4.9
12 Mozambique 4.9
13 Benin 4.8
14 Guinea 4.7
15 South Sudan 4.7
16 Central African Republic 4.7
17 Cameroon 4.6
18 Ivory Coast 4.6
19 Zambia 4.6
20 Senegal 4.6
21 Mauritania 4.6

22 Afghanistan 4.5 Highest Non African

23 Guinea Bissau 4.5
24 Equatorial Guinea 4.5
25 Sudan 4.4
26 Republic of the Congo 4.4
28 Togo 4.3
29 Sierra Leone 4.3
30 Liberia 4.3
31 Sao Tome And Principe 4.3
32 Ethiopia 4.2
33 Malawi 4.2
34 Comoros 4.2
35 Madagascar 4.1
36 Eritrea 4.1
37 Rwanda 4
38 Gabon 4
41 Ghana 3.9
46 Zimbabwe 3.6
52 Kenya 3.5
53 Namibia 3.4
54 Egypt 3.3
57 Lesotho 3.1
59 Algeria 3
60 Eswatini 3
65 Botswana 2.9
73 Djibouti 2.7
79 South Africa 2.4
80 Morocco 2.4
96 Tunisia 2.2
97 Libya 2.2

The highest European nation is France, 2nd highest is Sweden. We here in Sweden have had large programmes to raise it up in the past, but both here and in France, it is non European descent Swedes and French who are raising it higher, with the amounts of non European immigrants in Sweden being a fairly new thing, only really happening in the last 20-25 years or so to any truly large degree, other than Persians and Chileans, who came here due to the US empiric CIA coup d'etats in 1953 and 1973, respectively, plus small amounts from other various post WWII US empiric wars and coups before the big ones (and I mean non European conflicts, not talking about the Balkans in the 1990's, which really impacted Sweden too) hit in the 2000s onward.

2.1 is replacement level

117 France 1.9
126 Sweden 1.8

132 China 1.7
133 United States 1.7
134 Brazil 1.7
135 United Kingdom 1.7

The lowest birth-rate nations:

178 Italy 1.3
179 Spain 1.3
180 Ukraine 1.3
181 Moldova 1.3
182 Bosnia And Herzegovina 1.3
183 Cyprus 1.3
184 Andorra 1.3
185 Macau 1.2
186 Malta 1.2
187 Hong Kong 1.1
188 Singapore 1.1
189 South Korea 1

[Showbizkid]

25. That kinda proves my point

Assuming Nigeria modernizes, its bury rate will flatten.

If it doesn’t, the rest of the world will be desperate for its workforce.

You aren’t going to have 700 million Nigerians staring at each other.

[Celerity]

27. We shall see. Climate change was factored in, but perhaps not enough.

An aside: I almost always cringe when I see people (this is absolutely not, I repeat NOT directed at you) talk (often in quite strident tones) about how most EVERYWHERE needs to lower their birthrates, and they almost always are speaking about North America and Europe as a prime area of discussion.

Birthrates in those two areas are already low, many below replacement level. The places that DO have far too high birthrates are rarely, if ever mentioned by that crowd when they start to thunder on about too much breeding going on.

I have brought it up to more than a few people and they have, on more than a few occasions, went bonkers with self-righteous indignation and denialism in regards to (of course, look at the chart of where the high birthrates are) the racial aspects of their (for clarity, these types are, for the vast majority, white people) ofttimes quite ferocious 'thou shall not breed' posturings and diktats.

As a PoC myself (mixed race black female) I often wonder the motivations of people who constantly speak about the need to dramatically lower birthrates but then focus (and incorrectly so, as our birthrates are already low) mostly on advanced, core first world nations.

There is not a chance that the vast majority of these types were/are unaware of where the birthrates are actually too high. I think they are likely fearful of being labelled a racist (which I find to be a problematic fear, as this is science and we all should deal with the actual numbers) OR (hopefully a small minority) they actually are racists. That second one is also quite strange, as most white supremacist types advocate for whites to breed it up, make a tonne of white babies.

Either way, I do not care for the wilful disingenuousness of the ones who do actually know the real stats (plus I obviously despise the actual racists in the mix, which I think and also hope are actually quite small in number in terms of the people I have have engaged with on the 'too high birthrate' topic). I find it damaging overall to dealing with what will likely be a real problem, a massive problem, very soon, as climate change really starts to drive migration out of certain areas.

[Showbizkid]

29. That's one side of a two-sided coin

Those same people will argue about the US and Europe needing to lower their standards of living while largely remaining silent on China and India which are both desperately trying to bring 2.5 billion people to European living standards.

There’s this weird belief that a billion North Americans and Europeans giving up their second cars will offset 2.5 billion people in Asia hooking up air conditioners to coal power plants.

[DFW]

10. Assuming the borders of Nigeria stay the same

The country will not have an easy task feeding and housing that many people. If not prepared for in advance, that is a formula for a genocidal civil war, something the Yoruba, Hausa and Ibo are no strangers to.

[Showbizkid]

11. The Chinese megafarms in Siberia will handle this

The next 25 years are going to be wild.

[DFW]

13. Food for oil, eh?

Well, they tried it in Venezuela, so I guess they could try it here, too.

Actually, I am not personally aware of any specific transaction where Venezuela traded oil directly for food, but I was witness to part of a transaction where Venezuela traded gold (received 100 years ago from the USA for oil) for food. The parties involved told me they were buying meat from Turkey, and paid with the old gold coins we had sent them in the 1920s. I can't verify the Turkey part, but I was asked to check the authenticity of the gold coins (they were the real thing, alright), and there were tens of thousands of them--apparently a tiny part of what Maduro was selling. I know some Swiss guys who were asked to inventory Venezuela's stash of old American gold coins in the 1980s, and they had counted about a million of them. That would have been $20 million at face value in 1920, so it's perfectly plausible. After the coup attempt against Chávez, he moved all of Venezuela's gold to Cube for safekeeping. Maduro couldn't have Cuba sell it to the USA due to the embargo against Cuba, but they arranged to sell it via a Canadian bank in Toronto, and marketed it in the USA through a company in southern California that had Venezuelan connections.

To my knowledge, Nigeria has no such backlog of gold, but it has a lot of oil, and no embargo, so it's green light if your scenario is accurate.

[dembotoz]

12. wow can you imagine all the nigerian princes who will need our help to get cash out of the country??

contact me with proposals at https://rondesantis.com/




do i really need the sarcasm thingy?

[DFW]

14. I heard of one guy who actually got the better of them

He was a Belgian who said he would be glad to send them $100,000 to "free up" their $10 million, or whatever it was they claimed. He said the only problem was that his money was tied up in a trust that would only release his $100,000 in ten years as stipulated unless he paid a $10,000 early withdrawal fee, which he didn't have. He produced enough "documents" to convince the Nigerian scammers, who actually did wire him the $10,000. This was 15 years ago. The legalities are still being "worked out" as far as I know

[roamer65]

16. Nigeria is going to be nearly uninhabitable by 2050.

Climate change.

By 2070, it will be uninhabitable by humans.

https://earthbound.report/2021/03/23/the-uninhabitable-parts-of-the-earth/

[BlueWaveNeverEnd]

18. too hot?

[roamer65]

19. Yeah.

Most of India will be as well.

Home to well over 1 billion people.

[UTUSN]

22. & regressive/wingnut Texas has surplus of $32.7BILLION and takes BIDEN cash

*******QUOTE*******

Texas gets $60 million in federal funds to strengthen power grid against extreme weather
The Texas Division of Emergency Management will decide how to use the money.

.... The U.S. Department of Energy announced Thursday that it will award the funds so that Texas’ power grid might better withstand extreme weather events. The Bipartisan Infrastructure Law created the grant program. ....

State emergency officials will develop parameters for how to use the money. The funds could go toward programs such as trimming trees around power lines or improving how equipment functions in extreme heat or cold, for example.

The (Texas Division of Energy Management) did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Grid resilience has been top of mind for Texans since the 2021 winter storm forced power grid operators to call for electricity cuts to millions in the state. Hundreds of people died as the freezing weather took hold and residents could no longer heat their homes. ....

https://www.texastribune.org/2023/03/13/texas-budget-surplus/#:~:text=Texas'%20%2432.7%20billion%20surplus%20is,the%20budgets%20of%2024%20states.

TEXAS LEGISLATURE 2023
How could Texas spend its record $32.7 billion surplus?
If Texas’ budget surplus were distributed directly to Texans, it could pay for 12 years of school lunches, seven months of rent or 11,000 miles of travel. Here’s how to put the big number into perspective.

.... Texas’ surplus is bigger than the entire budget of many other states.
Texas’ $32.7 billion surplus is about the size of the budget of South Carolina. It’s larger than the budgets of 24 states. ....

*******UNQUOTE*******