Quinnipiac (July 13/17): Biden ahead of Trump, 49% to 44%

[Xanchez]

Yes, it is still very early. But two things worth noting:

1) this was even before the announcement that Trump is going to be indicted for January 6th.

2) for context, Biden won by 4% in 2020.

This is a good poll for Biden.

Link to tweet

?s=46

[Johnny2X2X]

1. There's been a lot of polls

This is about where I’d expect the race to be right now. Biden is finally starting to campaign and Trump’s legal woes are piling up. I’d expect Biden will be up 10+ in most polls by next Spring.

[TexasDem69]

3. Why would you expect that?

This poll seems about like what you’d expect. If Trump supporters didn’t abandon him prior to the last election then they won’t do so now. I know a handful of Republicans who voted for Biden in 2020 but most stuck with Trump

[Johnny2X2X]

13. Independents

Trump is bleeding support among independents. He has lost some Republican support, and he can't afford to lose any, but more importantly, he needs to win independents to have a chance in 2024. These court cases are a bridge too far for any thinking voters.

[TexasDem69]

27. I think you give independents too much credit

There aren’t too many true independents any more. And Trump is going to get something like 45% of the popular vote as a floor. Democrats just need to show up to win.

[Easterncedar]

2. Still appalling

Why do so many people choose the treasonous thieving craven grifting rapist?

[yardwork]

17. I know?!

[Silent Type]

4. Feel good about 2024, but not going off my anxiety meds before Nov 2024.

[Fiendish Thingy]

5. For context, Biden won by only 40,000 votes in 2020

Polls this early are meaningless and have no predictive value.

[BumRushDaShow]

12. "For context, Biden won by only 40,000 votes in 2020"

Here in PA, he won by 80,500 and nationally, he won by 7,059,526.

BIDEN - 81,283,501
45 - 74,223,975

https://www.fec.gov/documents/4227/federalelections2020.pdf

But agree that any poll taken beyond about 3 months before the actual election is meaningless and moreso because of the poor predictive issues the past couple elections since then.

[Fiendish Thingy]

23. You know what I meant, why obfuscate?

Biden’s electoral college victory was a razor thin 44,000 votes spread over three states.

https://www.npr.org/2020/12/02/940689086/narrow-wins-in-these-key-states-powered-biden-to-the-presidency

[BumRushDaShow]

26. There is no obfuscation.

Biden won PA alone by almost 81,000 votes, double what 45 won PA with in 2016 when this state had voted for the (R) for the first time since 1988.

From your link, they narrowed that "44,000" difference to a set of 3 those 3 other states, where the Electoral College then comes into play in terms of awarding Electors -

The tight races in the trio of states had a big electoral impact. As NPR's Domenico Montanaro has put it, "just 44,000 votes in Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin separated Biden and Trump from a tie in the Electoral College."

But PA doubled the difference in votes between 2016 and 2020 and MI (also ignored) went from +11,000 for 45 to +154,000 the other way for Biden, which was a huge shift, and was a flip back to a (D) for Electors.

So just PA + MI + NE (a +1 Electoral vote that happened in 2020 but not 2016) = 37 Electoral votes, the same as AZ + GA + WI, but with a net pickup of +209,000 votes for the popular votes for those 3 states when comparing 2016 vs 2020 (for just those 3 states).

Winning the biggest pot of Electors was paramount and the others were icing given that GA had not voted (D) since 1992 and AZ since 1996. THAT is all I'm saying.

You have now fried my brain. Thank you!

[Johnny2X2X]

21. I think you mean to point out that if AZ, WI, and GA were flipped, it would have been 269-269

And the GOP would have hande the election to Trump.

A little over 40,000 votes. Which is true. And makes the point that we have to look at state by state. Important point.

I don't think Wisconsin will be close in 2024, Biden is going to win that easily. NV, AZ, GA are the key states. I think both PA and MI are now solid Biden states that won't be all that close in 2024.

To me, this poll is kind of the start of things, Biden has just started to begin campaigning. He's just transitioning into talking about his achievements and people are starting to pay attention. That, and the fact the economy avoided recession while inflation has eased and it's set up really nice for Biden the next 16 months.

My rose colored sunglasses predictions:
Economy continue to grow, UE remain under 4%
DOW hits 40,000
Inflation falls to under 2% by early 2024
Ukraine beats Russia
Trump is a convicted felon by the Summer of 2024, but sentencing gets delayed until after the election.
Republicans are totally screwed with no way to get rid of the guy at the top of their ticket, but no way for him to win.

[Fiendish Thingy]

24. Yes, in many ways, the 2024 map looks better than 2020

However, there’s all those nasty voter suppression laws that were passed since 2020 that create some unpredictability to counter the optimism that Biden’s successes brings.

[Johnny2X2X]

25. In some states, yes

But voting rights have been expanded places too.

I think Michigan is off the table for the GOP right now. Wisconsin probably is too. And Pennsylvania is close to off the table.

Basically the blue collar wall Dems used to enjoy has been rebuilt by Biden.

AZ, Georgia, NC, NV, are the battle ground states now, and know that if Trump sweeps those, he loses the election 270-268.

And don't sleep on Florida, DeSantis is not helping his party right now.

I always knew Trump would completely destroy the Republican Party, just thought it would happen right away in 2016. The damage done to the country is immeasurable, but in the end I think the country will be much better off with a GOP that is decimated by supporting a convicted felon for President. Trump will be a felon running for President next year, he'll likely just be awaiting sentencing.

[marble falls]

7. Care to explain who's doing the "marginalization". I think it RFK Jr shooting himself in the foot.

[marble falls]

9. He's being shut out of debates because he speaks to RWers and because of that he ia not polling ...

... anywhere near 20%. He's a pathetic debater, and says racist crap and makes hugely uninformed statements on other issues, including the economy to the press.

[yardwork]

18. Was a troll fluffing RFK Jr again? It's not working.

[marble falls]

19. I was up late last night and caught them, MIRT had them down in about 10-15 minutes.

[yardwork]

20. Our MIRT volunteers are awesome!

And your responses were right on target!

[marble falls]

22. MIRT is awesome. I try to draw an MI out and get thier garbage out quick. There's always a group ...

... of MIRT on an MI at anytime. Coverage is key.

[carpetbagger]

11. As to the Kennedy question posted here earlier...

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4105465-biden-leads-kennedy-by-60-points-in-new-hampshire-survey/

NH this week: Biden 70, Kennedy 10, Williamson 4.
Kennedy with 69 percent unfavorable.

[DemocraticPatriot]

15. President Joe Biden will beat the shit out of RFK Jr

in New Hampshire, on a WRITE-IN vote, if necessary

[DemocraticPatriot]

14. Bump, and bravo

[Johonny]

16. Biden has been a great president, Trump historically horrible

Yet somehow it's as close as that. Proof some American are deplorable.

[Takket]

28. pretty much meaningless at this point. this is a 9 inning game and we're only

doing pre-game stretches at this point.