Recent Monmouth poll shows a wide Biden lead over Trump, which gets wider with a Manchin candidacy.

[lees1975]

https://signalpress.blogspot.com/2023/07/are-americans-finally-getting-it-and.html

None of the 24 hour cable news media outlets have been trumpeting this most recent Monmouth poll, like they did a couple of weeks back when Trump picked up a point or two in an obscure poll with 800 responses. This one shows two things--a Biden lead that is just about what we've thought it has been all along, outside the margin of error and reflective of the orange headed buffoon's high level of unpopularity that keeps creeping upward. And, for all the handwringing Democrats have done over Joe Manchin flirting with a third-party candidacy, Biden's lead widens over Trump if Manchin is included in the choices.

Of course it does. Manchin has spent two years courting conservative West Virginia voters to try for a third term in the Senate. He's not getting Democrats nor is he getting much independent support, since two thirds of them are left of where he is. He's a more viable choice for moderate Republicans who will vote along party loyalty lines, but who are hoping and fervently praying that Trump will stumble and fall, and not win the nomination so they can finally be rid of this albatross around the party's neck.

And with Trump now the bulls eye of the January 6th investigation, and with indictments ready to rain down once again, we're about to see this go in a good direction for this country. There's clearly a big wall building against Trump's ability to use his candidacy as a shield against prosecution. If Democrats are lucky, the timing of all of this will also leave a lot of Republicans in Congress with the residue of their failure to stand up for the rule of law, and a blue wave that is building will become a real tsunami.

[lees1975]

1. Waiting for moreIndictments

Indictments are finally raining down around the failed former President 45, and it appears that the bulls eye of January 6th indictments is about to be hit with more of them in a court environment much less favorable to the Orange-headed buffoon. He is getting smacked down in efforts to use his candidacy as a shield from prosecution, an argument that is getting tiresome and weary, and is, in my opinion, one of the reasons why an increasing number of Americans don't want to see him as a candidate for any elected office again.

I'm optimistic enough, at this point, to think we are going to get our wish.

[honest.abe]

2. I dont trust polls anymore but this does seem like good news.

[lees1975]

3. The media is selective about their emphasis on polls.

They'll push whatever fits into their agenda for the day. A lot of B and C level polls, with low ratings and high margins of error, are the kind that show Trump doing better than I tend to think he is, and they should get no media attention at all but they do. They like the ones that show things being close, to generate excitement and ratings.

It's hard to believe that enough people change their minds with this or that little nuance of change to create any kind of substantial difference in polling data. I'd bet, if we took a vote today, and then waited until November 2024, and the exact same people voted again, the difference would be negligible. Biden would win the popular vote by 10 million or more, and carry all the states he did in 2020 plus add at least two more, North Carolina and maybe Ohio. And I wouldn't bet on Florida's outcome now.

[honest.abe]

8. Florida is probably hopeless.

Ohio is not much better. NC is the most likely to flip to Biden. Are you confident about GA and AZ?

[BComplex]

4. This is why I think Chris Christie is going to be the dark horse in this election.

Republicans are going to vote for him in the privacy of the voting booth because he is saying what they are thinking.

[LowerManhattanite]

5. I've been hearing that their internal polling...

…is AWFUL, which is why they’re hyping the “No Labels” bullsh*t to maybe peel away just enough Biden voters to make the battlegrounds a bit more competitive.

[lees1975]

6. When their own commissioned pollster puts out data like this...

https://www.newsweek.com/trump-gets-bad-news-his-own-pollsters-firm-1814645

I guess it comes down to having to be honest to maintain credibility with the candidate on election day. Trump lies about the polling data in every stump speech he makes, it's always one of his big brags, no matter how far off he is. What makes this business more predictable is the fact that the partisan divide has come down to the point where nothing matters except the candidate's party affiliation. People would vote for a convicted criminal in a prison cell rather than cast a ballot for the guy on the other side because they believe the lies that their own party tells. That's a much bigger practice of conservatives than it is for moderates or liberals who use their minds and their intellect and actually think rather than believing the lie.

So if the news delivered by the internal pollster is bad, reality must be worse.

The fact that a "no labels" campaign by Joe Manchin digs into more Republican than Democratic support shouldn't be surprising. He's burned too many bridges with Democrats.

[617Blue]

7. Not to mention that stalking horse RFK Jr appeals

more to GOP than Dem. I imagine his handlers aren't happy that he's moved offscript into crazytown. I think they were hoping he'd siphon african americans with appeals to his dad's legacy.