What is the probability the attackers on the Montgomery boat dock Are MAGA?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

47 votes, 2 passes | Time left: Unlimited
	80-100%
	46 (98%)
	60-79%
	0 (0%)
	40-59%
	1 (2%)
	20-39%
	0 (0%)
	0-19%
	0 (0%)
	2 DU members did not wish to select any of the options provided.
Show usernames Disclaimer: This is an Internet poll

[MarineCombatEngineer]

1. I have no idea if they are or not,

so I'm not going to say one way or the other.

[emulatorloo]

5. So your probability is around 50/50.

[MarineCombatEngineer]

7. I guess you could look at it that way,

so, in that case, I'll change my vote to 50/50.

[emulatorloo]

10. Yeah I am 59/41, but just a guess of course.

[LexVegas]

2. The probability that any random white person you see is MAGA is fairly high. nt

[brush]

4. True, unfortunately

[MarineCombatEngineer]

6. So as a random white person, who, BTW, is a truck driver,

you would classify me as a MAGAt? Or any white person you see randomly is a MAGAt?
Even though you know nothing about that person?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. Only if you were assaulting a Black man who was simply doing his job.

[MarineCombatEngineer]

9. Absolutely,

but that's not what the poster said:

The probability that any random white person you see is MAGA is fairly high.

[Orrex]

13. I would call the statement reasonable and accurate

Certainly the likelihood varies based on numerous factors, such as age, education, profession, region, etc., but it doesn’t strike me as an unfair generalization.

It’s not a personal statement about you, nor about me—a middle aged white dude in a Trumper-dominated profession.

[MarineCombatEngineer]

14. No, it's not reasonable nor accurate,

there are millions upon millions of white people, like myself and you, in this country that are not MAGAt's and proclaiming that any random white person seen have a high probability of being a MAGAt is ridiculous.

[Orrex]

16. You're picking a silly hill to die on IMO, but you do you.

People routinely assume that I’m Xtian and conservative because of my age, ethnicity & geographic region. I could get my junk in a twist about it, or I can chuckle and see it as an opportunity to defy their assumptions to their surprise and my amusement.

If you want to let it make you sour, then have at it.

[yardwork]

20. Let's look at what the exit polls say...

According to Pew Research Center, in the 2016 election, 54% of white voters voted for Trump, and 62% of white male voters voted for Trump.

In the 2020 election, similar majorities of white voters supported Trump again. To me, a person voting for Trump in 2020 - after his disgraceful behavior in his first term - is the definition of a MAGAT.

I'm an older white woman who lives in the South. Although I live in a deep blue bubble, I generally assume that random white people I meet are quite likely to support Trump.

[MarineCombatEngineer]

21. Got it, so any random white person walking down the street, in a car, etc,

should be considered a MAGAt because of their skin color?

That's utterly ridiculous, I don't judge people because of their skin color, I judge them by their actions.

[yardwork]

22. Not considered or assumed to be, no.

I think we might disagree on the emphasis on certain words. "Likelihood" to me means if I had to guess, which would I guess? And "random" means I don't know anything at all about the person. That situation happens only very rarely.

I think your approach is more real world. You're waiting to see what a person says or does before making an assessment.

I don't think we really disagree that much. It's just how we react to the way the post was phrased that might be a little different.

[MarineCombatEngineer]

23. That's absolutely a fair point.

Thanks for that.

I just find it rather putrid that someone would judge a random white person as likely a MAGAt without knowing anything about them.

If someone on DU had said that they think that random black people are likely drug dealers, or a bad person or whatever, or random Hispanics are likely in the country illegally, etc, that would be instantly hidden and the offender would be banned, rightly so.

As I said, I don't look at a person's skin color, I look at their actions before I make a judgement.

Peace out
Dan.

[Voltaire2]

34. you are not a 'random white person'.

The set of white people posting on DU is hardly a random sample of the set of white people.

[MarineCombatEngineer]

36. I'm talking about any random white person walking down the street,

not just myself.

Look, people are free to judge other people by their skin color, that's their right, but to me, it's wrong, I don't judge someone by the color of their skin, I judge them by their words and actions.

[Ocelot II]

15. I'm a random White person. Would that include me, if you saw me?

A random White person beating up a Black person in Mississippi is more likely to fit that description, but I live in a city full of random white people who faithfully vote Democratic and whose House representative is a Black immigrant Muslim woman. My city council representative is a Black trans woman. Do you think the probability of a random White person in my state and city being MAGA is "fairly high"?

[Voltaire2]

35. I guess the understanding of 'random' is not clear.

[yardwork]

18. Exactly, since a majority of white people voted for Trump, twice.

[LexVegas]

19. I don't think many people understand statistics. nt

[emulatorloo]

3. Magic 8 ball says, "Signs point to yes."

[Midnight Writer]

11. What is the probability that they were drunk?

[MarineCombatEngineer]

12. As the old saying goes,

Instant asshole, just add alcohol.

[Srkdqltr]

17. Highly likely..

[Raine]

32. Along with being assholes. nt

[Elessar Zappa]

24. 80% I'd say.

Just spitballing though.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

29. You're free to start a poll who are the real MAGA racists.

"Let's have a poll for that."

[stuck in the middle]

26. Kenny Rogers - The Gambler

[stuck in the middle]

27. What I find amusing here...

…in this thread is that at least two posters of this self-selected sample of respondents have declared themselves as “random white persons”.

I hereby declare myself a random graph!

This random graph fact will blow your mind | Rado graph and its godlike properties

[Kennah]

28. My bookie won't return my calls to place this bet

[prodigitalson]

30. no i bet they all read the guardian

and never drank shitty beer like bud light to start with, something hoppy from a belgian monastary for these citizens of the world.

[JCMach1]

31. 100% drunken, a$$hat boater... As for the rest???

A$$hat boater type is a whole separate category in the south

[Initech]

33. I would say all signs point to yes.