Caroline Orr Bueno on what a civil war today would look like....

[summer_in_TX]

Caroline Orr Bueno, PhD
@RVAwonk (Twitter)
@[e-mail]
medium.com/@RVAwonk

I see a lot of people mocking those on those on the right who are calling for civil war, saying they’d never be brave enough to fight in a war. And if we were talking about a more traditional war, they’d be right. But let’s talk about what a civil war today would look like….

First of all, it would involve a lot of non-kinetic actions. Cyber attacks; attacks on infrastructure; targeted disinformation campaigns and hyper-localized “fake news” meant to stir up resentment and increase the rigidity of group boundaries, then promote group conflict.

The violence wouldn’t look like what you think of when you think of a war. It would look like isolated pockets of violence — mass shootings, protest-related violence, violence against govt officials, armed standoffs, local militias intimidating people, etc. Not just a big battle.

These people don’t have to be brave to incite & engage in a civil war. They just have to be sufficiently aggrieved & disillusioned with the government & other institutions. And we are in the midst of a years-long effort to ignite those conditions — & it’s already led to violence.

The biggest danger here is if we fail to connect the dots between these seemingly isolated incidents of violence, cyber attacks, infrastructure attacks, disinformation campaigns, and group conflict. And given our nation’s attention span, this danger is incredibly real.


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Bueno’s post struck me because I was visualizing civil war based on what I know of the American Civil War.

[bucolic_frolic]

1. Right, so no surprise, it's been going on for 6 years already

And it takes a PhD. to make it official?

[The Grand Illuminist]

3. Much longer than this.

I say almost over 25 years.

[Irish_Dem]

7. I have been saying for a long time that we are in a civil war.

A war waged by the GOP against their own country.
Started with Newt Gingrich going after the Clintons.

[The Grand Illuminist]

2. It's a different war than we've known before.

Isolated, hidden in plain sight attacks. Vigilance is key when looking at avoidable tragedy.

[EYESORE 9001]

4. This is not your great-great-granddaddy's civil war

Unless you want to consider guerilla actions that the confederacy utilized in some locations. There will be attacks on infrastructure, including cell phone and internet. Probably even some things I won’t mention here. It’s preferable to rip off the bandage now IMO.

[roamer65]

5. There would also be political and ethnic genocide.

Similar to the breakup of Yugoslavia.

MAGAts have already stated such.

[Kaleva]

6. Coordination would be the big issue for them

The VC had a centralized command structure. To a lesser extent, so did the French Resistance and Irish Republican Army

[sinkingfeeling]

8. The RW has been doing these things for a decade or more.

[Hortensis]

9. Sounds right, but this part doesn't connect dots with the climate crisis

and disruptions and failures of water and power supplies.

For some time now when I think of civil war, fire comes to mind as the image. This is not a good era for hoodlums to be setting threatening effigys on fire, a neighbor's car or house on fire, throwing burning objects out car windows.

In any "war," utilities and other systems necessary for life will be attacked and destroyed. But already, even with them in place fires are leaping out of control and sweeping whole neighborhoods, towns, and worse.

That governments have the ability to cut power, water, communications, travel to bring areas under control also come to mind.

Interesting topic.

[Earth-shine]

10. In 2023, the Mason-Dixon line runs through every village, town, city, even individual houses.

A civil war of stochastic terrorism and chaos.

A house divided against itself cannot stand.

[Hortensis]

11. The RW authoritarian-liberal Democracy line, today's variation horribly true.

On the plus side, that line from the Bible's one of those sayings that sound like the law of gravity but aren't.

After all, we've been a house divided but standing for decades now, and are still far from falling -- we're all tippy-tapping away unworried about whether we'll have food or homes or jobs tomorrow.

Or maybe we're not as divided as we're constantly being told. Our democracy still stands. tRump will present himself for booking or be presented, and there will not be riots.

I take all this as a positive indication that eventually we will succeed in stabilizing and moving past before we hurt ourselves very badly.

[Chipper Chat]

12. Some states could become "MAGAnet centers for rightwingers.

Like Indiana.
Conservatives from neighboring Illinois, Michigan and Ohio might move there.
Thus Indiana becomes Eastern Idaho.

[Sympthsical]

14. If America devolved, it would be like Ireland's Troubles

Which would be bad enough.

The idea there would be any big battles isn't based in reality. That would require a significant portion of the U.S. military chain of command to break away somehow, which is not something even remotely close to happening.

All that really needs to happen is to dehumanize the Other enough so that large scale "collateral damage" becomes an acceptable prospect to a large enough group of people willing to risk their lives or freedom for ideological goals.

[Chainfire]

15. What potential civil warriors would lack the most is logistics.

There are people who dream of bloodbath for the glory of the right, are not the smartest people in the country, however, many of them are armed to the teeth and overflowing with fear, hatred and misguided religious fervor. The Gott Mit Uns philosophy makes people capable of atrocity. We can look to conflicts of the recent past to see what it would look like. Think of Northern Ireland during the worst time but on a much larger scale, perhaps something akin to the Kosovo war or, worse case, something like the Cambodian disaster.

Anyone who thinks that they want a civil war in the US is either a goddamn fool, or an agent, wittingly or unwittingly, of our enemies. Make no mistake, it could happen here.

"Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked, and denounce the peacemakers for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same in any country.”
― Hermann Goering, Germany Reborn

[pecosbob]

16. It's been happening for some time

The Utah man going suicide-by-cop after threatening Biden last week is an example. The shootings at synagogues are another. The intentional damage of power infrastructure has been going on for a while now.

That being said, ninety-nine percent of wannabe insurgents are Waffle House warriors. They'd 'go to war' in their Suburbans and Silverados with their credit cards and cell phones and their Abercrombie and Fitch camos, then later try to deduct the travel expenses from their taxes.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. It would look like The Troubles.