CBS News is reporting that Ukraine forces have broken through and are approaching Tokmak

[Tomconroy]

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I believe the village of Robotyne is now taken and Ukraine has advanced farther than has generally been understood. The situation should clarify in the coming week but Ukraine may be past the major mine field of the russians.

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No mines (south of Urezhayne):

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?t=AABLp0AMnu2cAx6_wfMFXg&s=19

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[Lovie777]

1. Ukraine!....................

slow and extremely rough. And Russia is still bombing civilians.

[Emrys]

2. There's doubt as to what effective forces the Russians have beyond those first lines of minefields

Their strategy was to have three layers, retreating to and defending the lines further to the rear as necessary. But some of Ukraine's shaping operations over the last few months have blown a few holes in that strategy.

People - including anonymous US officials quoted in WaPo, NYT etc., which have consistently given a pessimistic picture of events - should know better than to interpret lack of news about what's going on at the fronts as a stalled conflict. Often, the quieter it is in the media, social and MSM, the more is actually happening, but not being reported in real time for obvious reasons.

[Kaleva]

3. +1

[COL Mustard]

5. I think the statements were deliberate

Maskirovka is a Russian deception tactic but it may have worked against them...again.

Slava Ukraini!

[Emrys]

10. Very conceivable.

We all expect parties in a conflict to flatter their forces' performance and prospects, but the the Russians are known to foster that in a highly organized way in a baroque version of denial.

Anyone who tries to second-guess the Ukrainian military leadership and who thinks they could run the conflict better is no doubt playing their part, even if they don't realize it. Things tend to happen slowly, then all at once. That's been a pattern for the last couple of years from the Ukrainian side, and will no doubt continue.

Meanwhile, Moscow medical facilities are running seriously short of blood because of the horrendous injuries inflicted on their troops by the cluster munitions some in the West decried when they were deployed, and that's just among the lucky few who didn't die where they fell and made it back to comparative civilization. That's just one symptom that the conflict is by no means going Russia's way.

[Beastly Boy]

6. Institute for the Study of War gave a serious slapdown to the reported assessments of gloom and doom

on the southern front given by the anonymous intelligence officials :

It is unclear from published reports why US intelligence analysts have reportedly concluded that seizing Melitopol is the only way Ukraine can sever the Russian land bridge. ISW has, in fact, assessed that Ukraine has many options for severing critical Russian ground lines of communication along the northern Sea of Azov coast of which the seizure of Melitopol is only one.[3] US Secretary of State Antony Blinken notably offered a diverging opinion from the alleged intelligence assessment on August 15, stating that the prospects for Ukraine’s counteroffensive to make significant “strategic gains” will remain unclear for at least a month or longer.[4]

It is premature to make assessments about the overall success of ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive operations occurring along several lines of advance toward several different apparent objectives. ISW has consistently assessed that the Ukrainian counteroffensive will be a protracted, non-linear series of operations, which will likely continue to occur in phases of differing tempos.[5] The Ukrainian counteroffensive is not a discrete set of scheduled operations, and current counteroffensive operations are likely setting more favorable conditions for larger significant operations.[6] ISW continues to assess that Ukrainian counteroffensive operations are significantly degrading defending Russian forces and that the overall degradation of the Russian defensive line creates opportunities for any Ukrainian breakthrough to be potentially operationally significant.[7]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-18-2023

[Cheezoholic]

8. Fog 'o war

Even the statement by our intel agency could be "look something shiny" misdirection. There are no rules in a war of survival.

[Emrys]

11. Yes, you didn't have to be associated with the ISW to be able to poke holes in those analyses.

There's more than one way to skin a snake. The Ukrainian conflict is not like a conventional NATO engagement, and can't be, given the resources that have trickled through to their forces, with very serious opportunity costs when the delays have allowed the Russians to dig in, which is a major reason why "progress" for the Ukrainians right now seems so slow at times measured against conventional and simplistic conflict models.

Crimea looks more vulnerable by the day. Putin's staked his reputation and future on holding it. I wouldn't bet on it going his way.

[Beastly Boy]

13. Couldn't have said it better myself.

[Warpy]

9. Nothing is stalled about it

They're just putting out little real information and quite a lot of disinformation.

[niyad]

4. Slava Ukraini! Thank you for the update.

[scipan]

7. Good. Hard to tell, but it looks like they are getting fairly

close to Melitopol.

And cutting the Russians off.

[Model35mech]

12. From the spring counteroffensive starting point Tokmak is about 1/2 way

to Melitopol. Melitopol's critical strategic highway intersections make it an important and attractive target. Just yesterday, US defense officials said Ukraine wouldn't be reach with this counter offensive: www.yahoo.com/news/us-intel-believes-ukraines-counteroffensive-133223976.html

[scipan]

14. Thanks. As much as 5 mines per square meter!!!

But now, I would think they are through the worst of it.

We shall see. Ukrainians have surprised us before.

[Model35mech]

16. If they are near the edge of Tokmak they are mostly thru 3 lines of defense

The prediction has been when they break thru the third line their advance will speed up.

But, fighting through a city is really a slog.

[scipan]

17. Okay thanks. But wouldn't any city have civilians on their side?

You don't actually have to answer. Guess it would depend on whether they've been mostly killed.

ETA: and how many Russians are hidden there.

It seems like it might not be that bad in my uninformed opinion.

[WarGamer]

18. From Kyiv Post

In its own assessment of the situation on the southern front, ISW said: “Recent Ukrainian advances north and northeast of Robotyne (10 kilometers south of Orikhiv) in western Zaporizhzhia may allow Ukrainian forces to begin operating in the areas past the densest minefields. If the areas around the second Russian line of defense are less heavily mined, then they would likely be more conducive to more rapid Ukrainian gains…

They MAY have broken through or worked their way AROUND the FIRST line of defense at Tokmak

As of hours ago... they haven't faced the second line yet.

[scipan]

20. Do you remember

Ukrainians took a town a few weeks ago? Seems like it might have been enlightening,

Not good. They fought for weeks it seems, it was hard.

Finally they entered the city and no one was there.
Pictures showed a desolate bombed out village.
It was still a victory but it took so long and no "liberation".

It seems like a hard slog altogether.

[peggysue2]

15. Hummmmm . . .

Washington Post may need to retract its Ukraine Counteroffensive Stalled headline from its repertoire.

How quickly things change! Particularly when you encourage doom and gloom journalists to pound the keyboards.

Slava Ukraini!

[Raine]

19. THANKS for the update sounds good. 👍 nt