Covid variants and increase in cases

[wnylib]

The new variants and increase in covid cases in the US and abroad are not surprising.

I'm thinking that the newer variants and their spread are likely a result of China dropping all of its covid restrictions in December, 2022.

After the initial covid infections in 2019 in China, the Chinese government imposed draconian control methods in a "zero covid policy." They forced isolation of infected people in groups at special housing for them. Consequently, a large part of the population was not exposed to covid. In addition, China refused the RNA vaccines and created their own, which is not as effective.

As protests against the isolation methods grew, China abruptly dropped all requirements for mandatory isolation and other restrictions. By January of this year, covid cases in China soared, causing deaths and hospitalizations like the rest of the world had in 2020.

https://publichealth.jhu.edu/2023/no-more-lockdowns-chinas-new-covid-landscape#:~:text=After%20three%20years%20of%20implementing,to%20address%20the%20current%20surge.

With all those newly infected people and business interactions and travel into and out of China, new variations and a rise in infections outside of China were inevitable.

It will probably not get as bad as 2020 here in the US. Vaccines and previous infections have decreased the susceptibility for most people here.

But those of us who are seniors and everyone who has an underlying health condition will need to be extra cautious, as if it were 2020 again.

[MLAA]

1. Husband has COPD and some heart disease so I never stopped wearing my mask though

we do go out to lunch at off times and sit away from people. Thanks for the post.

[WheelWalker]

3. That would be me. I'm your husband, I mean.

[MLAA]

4. He's worth the extra effort as I'm sure you are as well 😉

[WheelWalker]

5. You're a keeper!

[MLAA]

6. We just celebrated our 36th wedding anniversary.

I was 27 and he was 52 when we married. I am sure acquaintances thought I was making a mistake, good thing I’ve never cared what others thought. My parents were a little anxious, though they said they trusted my judgment. After meeting him and talking with him they immediately accepted him and went on to love and respect him dearly.

[Blues Heron]

2. Wiki Info on BA.2.86

BA.2.86, also known as the Pirola variant, is an Omicron subvariant of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. BA.2.86 is notable for having more than thirty mutations on its spike protein.[1] The subvariant, which was first detected in a sample from 24 July 2023,[2] is of concern due to it having made an evolutionary jump on par with the first appearance of the more contagious but generally less virulent Omicron lineage.[3][4] It is a mutation of BA.2, itself a very early mutation in the Omicron family.[4] BA.2.86 was designated as a variant under monitoring by the World Health Organization on 17 August 2023.[5]
Affected countries

BA.2.86 was first reported by Denmark and Israel.[1][6] On 18 August 2023, when only six cases had been reported from four countries (Denmark, Israel, the United Kingdom and the United States), the British healthcare authorities noted that its almost simultaneous appearance in several countries still operating detailed genomic surveillance indicated that it likely already was spreading more widely internationally,[6] a view also shared by other experts.[7] There has been an overall significant decrease in sequencing (ten times as many samples were uploaded to GISAID in August 2022 compared to July 2023), reducing the possibility of tracking variants globally.[1][3]

As of 30 August, 24 cases of BA.2.86 had been detected in Canada, Denmark, Israel, Portugal, South Africa, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States (three states, including one detected in an airport in a traveller who had just arrived from Japan).[8] As of 30 August, it had also been detected in wastewater in a number of places where not yet confirmed directly in samples from people, including one U.S. state (earliest U.S. detection in a wastewater sample from late July),[3][9] Switzerland (where it made up c. 2% of coronavirus particles in a wastewater sample from one region in early August),[3][10] Norway,[11] Germany, Spain and Thailand.[8]

[orthoclad]

7. I keep hearing of new and different variants

Do you have a comprehensive source for what's making the rounds? I think there are at least three. Vaxes are behind the curve, it seems. We're unprepared.

[orthoclad]

8. Blaming "Chy-na"?

And not all the idiots in the US breeding variants?

[wnylib]

9. The OP is not an anti China rant, so I don't get the point of your post.

It is simply a fact about viruses that they mutate often. Whenever there is a human population of substantial size that is getting newly infected, there will be an increase in cases and therefore increased chances of more new variants.

That would be true no matter where the newly infected population is from. In this case, it happens to be China. Could have been any other nation that had a very low exposure and vaccination rate, followed by a sudden increase when restrictions were eliminated.

Actually, the rest of the world might well be responsible for the initial increase in cases that caused the Chinese government to give up on all restrictions for the very vulnerable Chinese population, as a result of the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing.

Not "blaming" anyone. Read the link in the OP about what China faced in January, 2023.

[liberal_mama]

10. I'm immune compromised so I never stopped wearing a good mask in public, but even if I were healthy

I still wouldn't want to catch this virus with all the scary studies coming out about long term consequences. Good health is the most important thing. It sucks to be chronically ill.

[Jack-o-Lantern]

11. Not to worry, just drink bleach and stick a light bulb up your ass.

[MichMan]

12. Time for another lock down?

[wnylib]

13. I don't think that it will get that bad in the US.

The reason for a lockdown is to prevent the hospitals from being overwhelmed by critically ill patients like happened in NYC in 2020.

For people over 65 and for people with underlying health issues, the uptick in cases will be very serious. But for the general population, not so much. There will probably be a lot of sick people, but they will recover with Paxlovid. They will be out and about when they feel better, regardless of whether they are still testing positive. They might or might not wear a mask while still positive, spreading the virus. Among the elderly, immunocompromised, diabetics, people with cancer, heart disease, lung disease, or kidney disease, the death rate will likely increase unless they resume precautions of masking and distancing and get booster shots.

My concern is that doctors' offices and hospitals will make things worse for vulnerable people by not resuming precautions.