CNN Poll: Biden faces negative job ratings and concerns about his age as he gears up for 2024

[brooklynite]

CNN

President Joe Biden faces continued headwinds from broadly negative job ratings overall, widespread concerns about his age and decreased confidence among Democratic-aligned voters, according to a new CNN Poll conducted by SSRS.

There is no clear leader in a potential rematch between Biden and former President Donald Trump, who is widely ahead in the GOP primary. And nearly half of registered voters (46%) say that any Republican presidential nominee would be a better choice than Biden in 2024.

Meanwhile, hypothetical matchups also suggest there would be no clear leader should Biden face one of the other major GOP contenders, with one notable exception: Biden runs behind former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley.

Since Biden announced his reelection bid earlier this year – where he framed the 2024 contest as a fight against Republican extremism – his approval ratings have remained mired below the mid-40s, similar to Trump’s standing in 2019, and several points below Ronald Reagan, Barack Obama and Bill Clinton at this point ahead of their reelection campaigns.

Rant about biased polls all you want. This will be a close election.

[piddyprints]

1. It still blows my mind.

How can half the country have been asleep during his entire shit show since 2015? How can they not see that Biden's age and experience have been a benefit to the country? And it's not like tfg is a spring chicken, after all! This country has lost its collective mind. SMDH

[AZ8theist]

2. Yup. Can't figure this out either. nt

[Blues Heron]

3. headwinds from CNN is more like it

this stuff is so transparent

There is no election coming up. Its a YEAR from this November. ffs these polls are BS

[Raven123]

4. Another reason to avoid CNN.

I agree this election will be close, but the incessant polling is fatiguing.

[no_hypocrisy]

5. "Swiftboating" democratic presidential candidates is now tradition with

the media and the Republicans.

[Autumn]

62. "Is now"? No, has been . This has been going on for years,

it's nothing new.

[Sugarcoated]

6. Way too early

Polls always change as it gets closer

[brooklynite]

7. I don't dispute that polls change.

The core message is that, absent some shift in political conditions this isn't going to be the "blowout" that some folks here assert, and we should plan our strategy accordingly.

Biden didn't win by 7,000,000 votes in 2020. He won by:
85,000 votes in Michigan (1.54%)
79,000 votes in Pennsylvania (1.15%)
57,000 votes in Wisconsin (1.73%)
53,000 votes in Arizona (1.58%)
62,000 votes in Georgia (1.25%)

[bullimiami]

15. Won by. And are we saying the republican support has been on a steady increase since then?

I think they have been bleeding support this entire time.
Self inflicted wounds large and small.

Their core supporters are more and more concentrated and vocal.

But in the end a big mouth has the same vote as the quiet one.

How many years of screwed up polls and golly we got that one wrongs do we need before we start taking the polls much less than seriously.

[brooklynite]

23. I'm saying Biden support isn't increasing either.

[Sympthsical]

35. The polls were incredibly accurate last year

People keep asserting the polls are all super wrong, claims about landlines, beliefs that people cannot be polled anymore because of the internet, etc.

Polls are pretty decent.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy/

This "Polls are terrible" refrain is an article of faith. It has no basis in fact. And when the polls were bad in recent years, they under-polled Republicans - not Democrats.

I'm not worried about a poll a year out, but the afactual copium whenever a disliked number shows up needs to be put to rest.

[bullimiami]

48. They were not. Only in hindsite. The accurate polls are amplified and the others downplayed.

If you recall the last election cycle was supposed to be a Republican tsunami.
That was the big story line.

[Sympthsical]

49. Story line and reality are not the same thing

Cable news is not reality. I know a lot of people are addicted to it, but the numbers showed the reality of the situation even if narratives were living in their own fantasy world (as is often the case).

I love pointing this out, because it gives me warm fuzzies. I watched the polling carefully last year. I made a prediction three weeks out based on what I was seeing. Guess how I did?

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=17271873

And I was looking at the same polls as everyone else.

People need to stop dismissing realities they find unpleasant. Things do not get solved that way.

[bullimiami]

52. Its looks as though your common sense aggregator did a great job.

Most pundits and "pollsters" did not do as well.

[Sympthsical]

57. We agree on that topic, though

The narratives surrounding that election were total shit.

They wanted ratings and clicks. They always want ratings and clicks.

[bullimiami]

8. How about STFU CNN. I call bullshit on this story line they are manufacturing.

[Freethinker65]

9. Nikki will NOT be the nominee. 54% will not just vote against Biden for any GOP candidate.

That is all I got from the post.

CNN is spinning this snap shot polling as anti-Biden momentum as possible.

[Thrill]

13. It's not about the GOP nominee

You know what it takes for us to win. We need the college kids and other young adults to be fired up to actually go vote. And i just don’t think they will be. They won’t go vote for the clownish GOP candidate, the concern is will they even vote. This is legitimate concern.

[Demsrule86]

16. These early polls are useless and irrevelant and thnking someone is old doesn't mean you won't vote for them.

Roe Roe you vote...easiest way to lose is to primary a sitting president. In every election I remember we have this sort of thing...Biden can win the states we need these national polls some which are paid for by Trump and the GOP are useless and meaningless...and we should stop echoing them here.

[Freethinker65]

22. Getting upset about this post IS.

CNN is saying 46% in a poll think any GOP candidate is preferable to Biden. Not great numbers, but that means 54% are admitting they will actually look at the candidates before committing their votes (I believe even more than 54% are not really anyone but Biden voters).

Of course your concern is valid. It is always going to be about enthusiasm/turnout/GOTV in electoral swing states. Biden/Harris and the Democrats will not really start campaigning against a candidate until the GOP has a nominee. Until there is a nominee, the Democrats are pointing out their accomplishments (infrastructure, stable markets, job creation, Medicare drug price negotiations, etc.) and horrendous policies proposed by the opposition (cutting social security, taking away medical rights from parents and reproductive rights from families, hurting the US economy by refusing to pay our debts, etc.).

[Thrill]

10. Don't just dismiss these polls

I keep hearing from people that are hardcore progressives, that are concerned about his age. And don’t want him to run. The last time I dismissed these signs was with Hilary vs that ugly ass Trump.

This election is going to be very nasty. I really would have liked to see someone like Newsome run instead. Just don’t know if Biden and his team are up for it.

But whatever, it is what it is.

[Walleye]

12. Oh ye of little faith, Hillary was not an incumbent for one thing. Biden is already proven winner

[Thrill]

17. Here we go with the being dismissive

And ignoring the warning signs. It’s not about having faith. It’s about getting our voters motivated to vote. The fact that he has excellent record on jobs and the economy. And people continue to give him little to no credit is a damn issue, you can be blind to it if you want.

[Walleye]

20. I'm just sick of these new polls every day, they don't tell us anything

I don’t know anybody here who is not motivated to try and get out the vote. That’s not really our problem.A big problem is that if Trump runs again is he’s going to put us through this shit again when he loses. I am not blind to the situation, some MAGAs are irredeemable. What do we do about that? I’m just not gonna get an ulcer over these polls.

[LizBeth]

26. i got my voting reg in mail yesterday. excitedly said something to woman standing there

it is at an apartment building mostly college, upper income 30, 40's in Minneapolis, highly progressive in uptown, way liberal area. i didn't have glasses so asked the woman working packages if this was a voting card and she said yes. she had been seeing people all evening throwing it in the trash where she was working as junk mail. wasn't thrilled hearing that.

doesn't mean a thing, just a story to tell

[Walleye]

27. A lot of Americans don't believe in civic duty anymore

I guess they think God gave us our democracy and they don’t need to do anything to help preserve it. In fact people created our democracy, and people could easily destroy it

[AZSkiffyGeek]

63. That sure is a story

Loads of Democrats trashing their voting cards a year ahead of the election. Was this after they were forced to vote for Biden?

I'll take things that never happened for $1000 Alex.

[edisdead]

25. So aside from gnashing this poll what are YOU doing?

All of these warning signs but nothing to state what should be done and the best way to illustrate that is to lead by example. So what is YOUR game plan right now? Chew fingernails?

[Walleye]

28. The frustrating thing is there's not a heck of a lot I can do about it.

I’m old and tired, I wish all these young people that are yelling at us to get out of the way would take over

[treestar]

45. what do you propose?

a primary?

[Buckeyeblue]

44. I agree with you that we should be mindful of this issue

As I've said before, it's pretty much a non-issue if Trump gets the nomination. But if something happens and Trump doesn't get the nomination, it could be a bigger issue.

I honestly wouldn't be surprised if neither Biden nor Trump were their party's nominees.

Our world is very unpredictable.

[Emile]

11. brooklynite, you suggesting we pick a different candidate?

[brooklynite]

14. When did I say that?

I'm posting a newsworthy article which we should consider as we plan our campaign strategy.

[Butterflylady]

54. CNN is not newsworthy.

[brooklynite]

56. Or (apparently) MSNBC (sometimes) The NY Times, The Wash Post, The Hill, Politico....

If this site limited itself to what the users consider "acceptable" sources, we'd be living in a solid information bubble.

[vercetti2021]

18. We are on the cusp of fucking fascism

And these fucking smooth brains are concerned about age?

[MyMission]

19. CNN is now a tool for conservatives

I was shocked to see the top, large headline on CNN website today. "Nearly half of voters say any 2024 gop nominee would be better than Biden "
(I read it as gop voters)

Immediately followed by "only 39% of voters approve of Biden and a majority of voters say things in the US are going badly" (i question their sample pool)

Immediately followed by
Cnn poll: a majority of Americans believe Joe Biden, as VP, was involved in son's business dealings" (no numbers in that headline)

4 out of 5 dentists surveyed recommended a certain gum, when the researchers had specifically targeted and manipulated who to sample.

My advanced degree in statistics makes me skeptical of any reported data.
My first stat class lecture in grad school was "how to lie with statistics" as a cautionary lesson, and to lay out the correct and "wrong" (alternate) ways you manipulate data samples to gain desired results.

Most of my classmates went on to work in the corporate world. I did not.
"We want our study to show this result" is something I heard too often.

Others here feel as I do and don't trust the polls, or the (headlines) reporting of them, which is meant to deflect and mislead

The election will be closer than it should, especially with misleading polls.
But we will prevail. Fuck cnn! And the rw corporate news machine.

[bigtree]

21. weak prediction, based on polling right now. It's ALWAYS bogus and wrong at this point

...bandying these polls around which suggest Biden can't beat these cretins depresses votes. It's not advocacy, it's a stick in the eye.

It's not like we all need to carry them around and whip ourselves with them like a cudgel to remind ourselves people still support the criminal defendant in polling.

Just once, it would be nice to see someone posting these polls make an argument here that supports the president winning, but all we get here, on a board that's supposed to be promoting and supporting Democrats, is a narrative that Biden could lose based on polls presaging a loss or a close race that didn't materialize for others polling the same or worse at this point.

You put a historically false spin on this poll, and you think we should all take heed of that?

Michael Beschloss @BeschlossDC Sep 5
Gallup Poll reported that the President's approval rating was only 41% and he was losing "disproportionate support among high-income Americans and Hispanics." The President was Obama in September 2011, the same point before his reelection campaign year that Biden is today.


...does this poll below mean Biden will likely win?

Sep 6, 2023

InteractivePolls @IAPolls2022
🚨 NATIONAL POLL: @MorningConsult
PRES:
(D) Biden 44% (+3)
(R) Trump 41%
.
(D) Biden 44% (+5)
(R) DeSantis 39%
——
GOP PRES:
Trump 60% (+45)
DeSantis 15%
Ramaswamy 8%
Pence 6%
Haley 5%
——
5,000 RV | 3,745 GOP RVs | 9/2-4
https://pro.morningconsult.com/trackers/2024-gop-primary-election-tracker

this is advocacy:

Link to tweet

[Walleye]

32. Yes. What you said! You said it much better than I can

[brooklynite]

34. Where's the "prediction"?

Its a poll of current sentiment and is presented as such.

[bigtree]

40. "Rant about biased polls all you want. This will be a close election."

...said the person putting a historically false spin on polling at this point.

Aug 29
The last 25 polls:

BIDEN LEADS IN: 18
TRUMP LEADS IN: 4
TIED IN: 3


twitter.com/ChrisDJackson/status/1696640486260232413

[brooklynite]

41. And did you look at that data?

Most are 1-2 pts either way. Which is what I've been saying for months.

[Aepps22]

68. Carville

You also said a lot about what you heard on your super exclusive calls with Carville back in 2022. I agree this election will be close and we have to GOTV and do our part but you responded the same way when people questioned you about what you heard on those calls.

[brooklynite]

69. The races in 2022 were also close...

That they broke to the Democrats was counter to most traditional political behavior in the first midterm of a new Presidency. In any case, nothing to do with the accuracy or ethicality of polling data.

[JohnSJ]

37. Exactly. Though not highlighted this poll also indicated the following

“Independent voters break in Biden’s favor, 47% to 38%, as do suburban women (51% Biden to 44% Trump).”

I also think that young people are underrepresented

[Sugarcoated]

61. Good post

Every election the Debbie downers lament the polls over a year out and every election season they change.

[quickesst]

24. My opinion

First, if there were anyone in the Democratic party who thought they were more qualified to run for president in 2024, they would have announced long ago their intention to do so. Secondly, and this is for the Democratic side who can only cry, piss, groan, and moan about Joe Biden's age, they should be able to consider the obvious. For argument's sake, let's say we have President Biden in a second term for 2 years, then the vice president will step up and take the reins. Quite frankly, why would anyone be stupid enough to exchange 2 years of Joe Biden for 4 years of trump or one of his clones? Bottom line? What do you prefer? One scoop of ice cream, or two scoops of shit?
Joe Biden's age seems to have consequences that reach further than the issue at hand. Again, in my opinion, it shows a lack of confidence, even a level of disdain for vice president Kamala Harris. Think about it. If there weren't any dumb Democrats, this wouldn't even be an issue for the left. This time, yes, throw those "feelings" out of the window. This time around, common sense and logic should rule the day.

[Walleye]

31. 👆

[Scrivener7]

33. Yes, all this is true. And we here all agree that Joe is the best bet. But we do need to

face the fact that many don't, especially because the consequence of losing this election is the loss of the American Democracy.

Democratic leadership needs to figure out a way to counter the nonsense republiQans are spreading about Biden.

Personally, I think Biden is pretty talented at politicking, as he showed us when his campaign went from a dead stop in 2019 to winning the office in 2020. I am not in any way despairing, and I suspect Joe has a good plan up his sleeve.

But it does us no good to ignore the fact that, so far, the message of his accomplishments has not gotten out to the mainstream.

[Norbert]

29. Ray Gun faced headwinds & negative approval in 1983

It didn't turn out that way.

Biden will win going away, just my opinion.

[JohnSJ]

30. Fuck CNN, and the MSM. They highlight all the negatives burying deep inside the most important

aspect of the poll:

“ Independent voters break in Biden’s favor, 47% to 38%, as do suburban women (51% Biden to 44% Trump).”

Definitely don’t want to highlight that, because it will be the independents that determine the race

and of course they push how “concerned” registered Democrats are about Biden’s age. That does not mean registered Democrats are voting for trump.


National poll, undecided, etc.

[Sympthsical]

50. That is important - but not in the way you think

You're highlighting suburban women. Here's the thing, suburban women in 2020 broke 59/40 for us.

So that number is actually showing a significant narrowing of the demographic. A 19 point lead is down to 7.

Considering suburban women played a significant role in what turned out to be a very close election in the battleground states, it's at least concerning.

[doc03]

36. Let's face facts the Republicans constant drumming about Biden's age has worked.

It's the same as the constant Benghazi Benghazi worked with Hillary Clinton. Many Democrats including myself are concerned about his age. To be concerned about his age is not saying he hasn't been a good president and that I won't vote for him. The fact is
he is 80 years old and that is something to consider. It is not anti-American or bashing Democrats to have these concerns.

[JohnSJ]

39. With the help of the illustrious press. Hardly anything is mentioned about trump's age

[doc03]

43. That's true if the media would be honest Trump is obviously

mentally impaired. Biden is in far better physical shape than the bloated overweight slug Trump.
I have never played golf, but it doesn't appear you have to be any kind of athlete to ride in a golf cart.
I bet Trump couldn't ride a bike 5 miles without getting winded and passing out. I am 75 and can't imagine
how Biden can do what he does day after day at 80.

[flamingdem]

38. People are not rational. They're looking to blame someone.

Biden gets the blame.

People don't see how he works the system for results.
They just see the negative headlines and join the attack.

My sense from a half hour over at reddit where younger and independent voters hang out.

[JohnSJ]

42. It seems that registered republicans were over sampled in this poll

“ The CNN Poll was conducted by SSRS from August 25-31 among a random national sample of 1,503 adults drawn from a probability-based panel, including 1,259 registered voters and 391 Democratic and Democratic-leaning independent voters. The survey included an oversample to reach a total of 898 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents; this group has been weighted to its proper size within the population. Surveys were either conducted online or by telephone with a live interviewer. Results among the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 points; among registered voters, the margin of sampling error is 3.6 points, and it is 6.0 for Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters”

[treestar]

46. What about TFG's age?

Does CNN bother to do a single poll on that?

[Fiendish Thingy]

47. 2024 was always going to be close, especially in the Electoral College

Just as 2020 was.

This poll, and all recent national polls, have absolutely no predictive value for November 2024.

I won’t be interested or concerned about any polls until swing state polls start coming out next summer.

[bluestarone]

51. Well, we got a full year of these SHIT POLLS!

I've clicked on one for the LAST TIME, until we are a couple months from the 24 election. All they do is get people upset! There is only ONE fucking choice. Go JOE BIDEN!!!

[herding cats]

53. It's a suspect poll where they oversampled Republicans

The CNN Poll was conducted by SSRS from August 25-31 among a random national sample of 1,503 adults drawn from a probability-based panel, including 1,259 registered voters and 391 Democratic and Democratic-leaning independent voters. The survey included an oversample to reach a total of 898 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents; this group has been weighted to its proper size within the population. Surveys were either conducted online or by telephone with a live interviewer. Results among the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 points; among registered voters, the margin of sampling error is 3.6 points, and it is 6.0 for Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters."

This is definitely nothing to get worked up about, especially now.

[Butterflylady]

55. After reading this, this polling is a JOKE.

[H2O Man]

59. Recommended.

I do not think the majority of the DU community has a grasp -- much less a firm grasp -- of the dynamics at play at this time as we head into 2024's election season. And if one does not have a grasp of these dynamics today, they are remarkably unlikely to gain one as events continue to build in force in the months to come. When one seriously considers what is being risked, reading this forum is frequently frustrating.

[NoMoreRepugs]

60. So much bullshit it's hard to fathom.

[Elessar Zappa]

64. I'm not worried.

The electoral college will be relatively close but when it’s all said and done, I predict Biden wins all the swing states and the popular vote by 8-10 million.

[ExWhoDoesntCare]

65. So we should just give up and give the best POTUS of my adult life

The Old Heave-Ho, then?

Is that what you're trumpeting here?

[LetMyPeopleVote]

66. If TFG is the GOP nominee, President Biden's age will not be a big issue

The Biden campaign will be glad to compare the physical condition of President Biden to TFG

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

[LiberalFighter]

67. I don't think it will be that close.