Either this CNN poll is pure BS or they are doing a horrible job explaining what they have done.

[herding cats]

This is worth a read.

Either this CNN poll is pure BS or they are doing a horrible job explaining what they have done.

article.

“The CNN Poll was conducted by SSRS from August 25-31 among a random national sample of 1,503 adults drawn from a probability-based panel, including 1,259 registered voters and 391 Democratic and Democratic-leaning independent voters. The survey included an oversample to reach a total of 898 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents; this group has been weighted to its proper size within the population. Surveys were either conducted online or by telephone with a live interviewer. Results among the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 points; among registered voters, the margin of sampling error is 3.6 points, and it is 6.0 for Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters.”

SNIP

So what does “probability-based panel” mean? It means that SRSS has invited a large group of folks to participate regularly in their surveys. These invitations are sent to a group of Americans thought to be representative of the population. But who accepts the invitations? People who are willing to provide a “battery” (SRSS’s term not mine) of information. How large is this group? SRSS doesn’t say. Are they still a representative group? Well, no. But SRSS just says that they are “weighted” and “calibrated” to assure representativeness based on consistency with American Community Survey averages when surveys are taken. I find this mildly suspicious but no huge red flags yet...

Next, they sampled 1,503 adults from this go-to survey group. And they got only “391 Democratic and Democratic-leaning independent voters”??! Here, this thing starts to get really weird. Who are the rest of the people?

Second: The survey included an oversample to reach a total of 898 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents; this group has been weighted to its proper size within the population.

So 898 Republicans make up most of the sampled voters. Why? So this is NOT a random national sample. It is a sample chosen by party affiliation.

But, no worries, supposedly, because the GOP oversampling is “weighted to its proper size within the population.” But how on earth does anyone know what the “proper size” is? National totals of party affiliation registrations? Previously stated opinions from the “battery” of demographic information. Of course, they don’t tell you.

READ MORE: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/9/7/2191956/-Either-this-CNN-poll-is-pure-BS-or-they-are-doing-a-horrible-job-explaining-what-they-have-done?utm_campaign=recent

I'm definitely not saying we don't need to stay vigilant and not let our guards down. Quite the opposite actually, we need to call out things like this and question when something doesn't seem accurate loudly.

We're all in this together and if we stand together and fight like hell to get our voters to the polls, we've got this.

[herding cats]

4. I'm sorry your post was hidden.

I was originally going to post this as a reply to you.

It's a suspect poll, to say the least. Which sent me digging for the data.

This made me raise my brows.

The CNN Poll was conducted by SSRS from August 25-31 among a random national sample of 1,503 adults drawn from a probability-based panel, including 1,259 registered voters and 391 Democratic and Democratic-leaning independent voters. The survey included an oversample to reach a total of 898 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents; this group has been weighted to its proper size within the population. Surveys were either conducted online or by telephone with a live interviewer. Results among the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 points; among registered voters, the margin of sampling error is 3.6 points, and it is 6.0 for Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters.

What in the world are they doing over sampling Republicans like that? I started looking up SSSR and fell into this KOS post and decided I'd share it to help make a bit of sense of why it seems so outlandish.

[JohnSJ]

10. Appeal.

[Celerity]

12. SSRS is low rated on 538, but a major reason for that is it massively overstated Biden/Dems in 2020

right before the elections, the opposite of a Rethug lean.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/ssrs/

[herding cats]

16. It would seem they're overcompensating for that so far this round.

Actually, in this case, I suspect they had a story they were kicking around and polled with a desired result.

While it's true if we (Democrats) don't get out and vote, we will lose. Twisting a poll into a pretzel to create a narrative doesn't do anyone any good.

[Celerity]

22. I lack the information to make that call, but you may well be right. That said, they are far from

only poll to show similar results.

I am nowhere near panic mode, especially this far out. Biden will 100% be our nominee (barring debilitating severe illness or death) and I hope that team Biden is simply using the polls to try and address the issue that are resulting in bad numbers. I am sure they are.

I see Newsom being tossed out there a lot as an alternative.

One huge point on that.

He could not run with Harris as VP, as she would not be able to receive California's Electoral College votes for VP as they both reside in CA.

We could end up with Newsom as POTUS, and a Rethug VP (if we lose the Senate (which is fairly likely atm, as the map is just shit for us in 2024), who vote for VP if no VP candidate gets to 270). The risk of that is far too great.

It would also be internal Democratic Party political suicide to remove Harris as VP (despite my opinion that she perhaps cannot win a general as a POTUS candidate in 2028 and beyond, and perhaps not even the Dem primary in 2028 and beyond, time will tell on all that).

Removing Harris as VP for 2024 would severely hurt us with absolutely key Dem support cohorts, especially blacks and even more specifically, my fellow black women, plus women overall, not to mention, to a less (I wager) but still significant degree, other groups and simply many Dem voters as a whole.

Newsom v Harris will have to wait for 2028 and beyond, and will very, very likely never be a Dem ticket together.

[Tomconroy]

36. Democrats will come home to Joe if he runs but personally

I am OK if he chooses not to. Whatever people might think most are going to feel 80 is too old as a general proposition.

[Sympthsical]

39. Newsom's who gives me heartburn

I agree entirely with your analysis.

I don't know what to do with him. He's going to run. The question is whether or not it's 2024 (if Biden drops out for whatever reason) or 2028. He's term limited. He'd have to bump off Padilla if he wanted to run for Senate to stay relevant. Knocking off a popular Latino Democratic senator in California would be a look and a half.

And then there are the Harris considerations.

We really needed this election to hash this stuff out. Because now there are more possibilities and probabilities in play that all lead to some intraparty ugliness. The decision to just keep going as things are is incredibly short-sighted. It feels like fear is clouding all our judgement.

What comes next is going to make 2016 look like a gentle handy.

[Celerity]

49. Assuming Biden wins in 2024, the 2028 Democratic primaries may well be a shitshow, IMHO.

If Biden/Harris wins in 2024, you will have a twice-elected VP Harris who will try to crush any challenger, despite the fact she ran a very poor 2020 campaign, and despite the fact there are major questions (good faith ones) that she can win the 2028 general (especially versus a non MAGA Rethug, a Rethug candidate who can pull back a lot of the Rethugs and indies that Trump drove away).

You will have a large chunk of the Dem primary Harris supporters (especially the most toxic parts of the KHive/donut social media, based off their 2020 and 2022 behaviours, especially their 2020 smears of Pete, Warren, Sanders, and Biden (by KHivers more than donut social media) himself, and their 2022 atrocious smears of Fetterman. for instance), who will frame ANY challenge to her as automatically racist and misogynist (even if we are talking a PoC or female challenger to her). I suspect that will definitely be the case here on DU as well from some elements. It could well get very nasty.

I would say the major players atm for the 2028 Dem POTUS primaries (assuming we win in 2024, if Trumps wins, dog knows what will be the landscape, I shudder at the thought)

will be (in no order)

Harris
Newsom
Whitmer
Buttigieg
Josh Shapiro
Raphael Warnock
Wes Moore
Andy Beshear
Roy Cooper
Jared Polis
Corey Booker
J. B. Pritzker
Chris Murphy
Tammy Duckworth
Mark Kelly
Amy Klobuchar
Stacey Abrams
John Fetterman (health questions though, unfortunately)
Ben Ray Luján

probably forgot some

Sherrod Brown (76 in 2028, 84 at the end of 2 terms) and Warren (79 in 2028, 87 at the end of two terms) will likely be too old to win the primary. I do not see either even trying, but I may be wrong (not for the first time!, lol).

[Think. Again.]

32. Hmmm...

...you say that "massively overstating Biden/Dems in 2020 right before the election" is "the opposite of a rethug lean"?

But, overstating one party or the other right before the election is intended to make voters of the overstated party fell comfortable enough to possibly not bother voting.

How is that not a rethug lean?

[Celerity]

38. I was referring strictly to the numbers, not potential outcomes from those numbers.

If this poll (and others) NOW showed Biden above water in popularity and beating Trump handily, it would be praised by many here.

Would you say that all those people pumping those hypothetical positive polls were playing into some Rethug poll plot?

I take polls (especially this early out) with a huge grain of salt.

I try and look at the methodology and their historical accuracy as well.

Polls are a snapshot in time, and that snapshot (for that moment in time) can flawed or accurate.

Voters also (obviously) can say one thing now (complain about Biden or the economy for instance atm), but when faced, in November 2024, with the stark choice between Biden (regardless of age concerns) and a potentially nation/planetary order destroying Trump, still pull the lever for Biden. I am banking on just that happening.

[Think. Again.]

47. I see, I misunderstood...

...my apologies.

You know, I guess I'm just a hardcore Dem, but I find it incredible that anyone could be flip-flppy between Joe or trump. I can see there are either trumpers or rational people, but I can't understand how anyone could be unsure which one they would vote for.

[Pacifist Patriot]

15. They need a horse race for ratings?

[herding cats]

17. Evergreen

Always and forever the same.

[hadEnuf]

42. Exactly.

Trump's name is shit right now except for with his sewer dwelling supporters. The press needs a show and they know Trump will give them one.

[wnylib]

20. Maybe because the poll is questionable, as this OP indicates.

[dchill]

2. That shit would definitely stick to the ceiling.

[bullimiami]

3. BS. Of course. Masquerading as reality.

[Bettie]

5. So, they 'weighted' it

to nearly 60% Republicans, with the assumption that 60% of the population is Republican and would support any idiot with an "R" after his name?

And we're supposed to swallow this whole and ask for more?

I know, we're supposed to say "polls are accurate and perfectly reflect what will happen", but I'm not seeing it.

[herding cats]

8. Right?

My eyebrows shot up when I finally made it to their data and MOE at the end.

They appear to have polled for a result they were looking for to create a possible scenario they could run with.

That's "Fair and Balanced" alright.

[Bettie]

25. And according to some people

we're supposed to think we're doomed now, because a poll weighted as if the population is 60% republicans is saying Biden is too old.

Biden wasn't even my 5th choice in the primaries. He has broken all of my expectations in a positive way. He is doing a great job and I will vote for him this time enthusiastically.

[pwb]

6. Do a poll about how Women have lost freedoms and

ask the young if they approve of their Earth burning? CNN is pushing this shit for the early Ad money. I can't watch any Cable news anymore. Opinion and commercials all day same, same.

[herding cats]

18. It's all about the revenue.

Always it's the money. I don't even usually give them a click when they're posted but did this time for the polling data.

[Sane1]

7. Giant Headline!!

The sad thing is that they put a Gigantic headline on it. It really jumps out at you. A lot of people perusing the internets don't dig into it as deeply as herding cats has. CNN is trying to suck in people tired of the old FOX fake news.

[herding cats]

23. That is their new model.

FAUX News but low carb and half the calories of the BS they were consuming on FOX.

[BumRushDaShow]

33. I saw that when going to their main site looking for a different story

and immediately thought - here we go... full on RW fuckery.

And agree that herding cats finding the DKos piece explained it as I figured - "oversampling Republicans", literally by over twice as many as Democrats polled, and supposedly from a "random sample".

It would certainly be enough to bring out the "concern trolls".

Hopefully they will be laughed out of the business of "reporting".

[MerryBlooms]

9. r&k Nice work finding this article. 💯

[usonian]

11. THROW AWAY YOUR TV.

I was about to reply to antivax when the OP was removed. The poll, and CNN are bogus beyond measure.

Seriously, toss the TV and use a news aggregator on the web.

I use DU and Hacker News (cuz I am a tech head) but you might consider DU and one or two others.

Some ideas are here. YMMV. This is not an endorsement. Other lists were pretty awful by comparison.

https://themeisle.com/blog/news-aggregator-websites-examples/

Or you might choose Fark.
https://fark.com

Snide beats outright lies. (screenshot)

[Meadowoak]

13. I don't trust anything from CNN anymore. Might as well be a FOX poll.

[moondust]

19. +1

CNN may be using rigged polls and slanted stories to try to capture radical viewers who have abandoned the kinder, gentler Fox without Tucker and the big lie factory tempered by lawsuits.




ETA: I still watch some CNN International whose coverage of international news hasn't changed much.

[Evolve Dammit]

34. same. "They" want the orange guy back.

[sinkingfeeling]

14. What I noticed, in the hidden post, was we have seen an unbroken decline in presidents'

favorability since Ike. There was a screenshot that showed favorability falling from like 71% dropping with each president down to Biden, who was like 1% lower than TFG at this point into term.

[Roc2020]

21. Frankly I do not care one ioda

about any polls. 2020 should have seen Trump blown out...he barely loss. Only poll that matters is after the election.

[MyNameIsJonas]

24. Yes. It seems very unusual 60% of the sample would be GOP-leaning.

That would be an extreme outlier to what we've seen in the past.

[Scrivener7]

26. And yet, that BS poll did exactly what CNN (aka NeuvoFox) wanted it to do.

A certain portion of the "I don't care about politics" crowd will look at that and say, "Well, then, the defendant can't really be all that bad."

[Hortensis]

27. Remember, CNN played a significant, deliberate role in defeating Democrats in 2016.

And in electing Republicans.

[Scrivener7]

28. And way too many who don't pay much attention to politics still think of CNN as the

"middle of the road" one.

[TexasDem69]

50. Any evidence of that?

That CNN deliberately acted to elect republicans?

[Ligyron]

29. They're wrong.

The women will be heard from this election.

Biggly.

[SpankMe]

30. Not a valid poll if the respondents "participate regularly" in their surveys

It may give some valid data on how this particular group and subgroup of people think. But if the respondents are "regulars" then their responses will likely change over time as they know in advance that they'll be "on stage".

It's not a valid poll unless the respondents are chosen completely at random from a pool of people who are not expecting to be polled.

[LiberalLovinLug]

31. I feel there is a segment of Democratic voters that are worried about Bidens age

And they express that concern in polls.

But they will gladly vote for him in the general. It’s not that they are displeased with his job. It has more to do with being worried that his age and perhaps a” senior moment “ or two before 2024 get used against him, especially if it looks like a close race

[Ford_Prefect]

35. Some polls are conducted to suit the client/patron and the desired answers requested by them.

Most of the polling outfits will do client preferences polling to one degree, or many more. This one certainly has that feel to it.

We don't know who commissioned this one. The Dark Money crew, Putin's pets, Chinese, Saudi, RW Israeli, and other actors all have a history of involvement in, and influencing of American politics and policies. Ludicrous polling such as this would seem to fit that profile.

[Tomconroy]

37. Regardless of who the candidate is I think most people

are uncomfortable with the general idea of someone 80 years old being president.
It has nothing to do with Joe's many accomplishments.

[pinkstarburst]

40. Some voters want different candidates, not a 2020 repeat

Biden is our candidate. He's running. But we can't change his age. There are lots of people out there who like Biden and think he is a good, compassionate man who wants to do good things for the country and ALSO have concerns about his age. Period.

Both things can be true at once. Voters can be dissatisfied that their only choices are Trump (ugh, the most unqualified candidate ever--and also concerns about age), and Biden (who they like, but concerns about age). I think that is what this poll is expressing. That there are some voters who wish they had two different candidates, not a repeat of 2020. They have to choose between two options they are not as excited about.

I don't know how this shakes out in the general. It's 14 months until then. A lot can happen between now and then. And that scares me.

[nowforever]

41. CNN is trying to stay neutral

While supporting a sociopath. Everyday the news on CNN should read...The criminally charged ex-president who has been found guilty of sexual assault is continuing his campaign while still lying daily about the results of the 2020 election. The cowardice of the GOP is astounding considering they all are aware that they are supporting a sociopathic narcissist who is morally corrupt and without conscience. It is disgraceful how we, as an important part of the news media, continue to give credibility to this lunatic. We do sincerely apologize and will crawl back into our dark corner and think about it.

[SWBTATTReg]

43. Another poll, obviously poorly written, and/or explained, and/or way too early. What is CNN trying

to do, influence the election, as djt is so fond of saying lately?

[onecaliberal]

44. CNN, all propaganda, all of the time.

[jaxexpat]

45. Right! Every time the scam rears its head, scream bloody murder.

[sl8]

46. Survey questions:

Online:
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/23940784-cnn-poll

PDF:
https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/23940784/cnn-poll.pdf

[Cha]

48. Have you seen this, Cat?

Link to tweet

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100218254030