Don't Be Taken in By People Pointing out That Biden Is Behind

[MineralMan]

Current polling is all over the place, as is fairly normal this far away from an election.

However, there are people, even here on DU, who will try to sow Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt at every opportunity. Do not pay attention to such posts. Instead, double down on supporting Joe Biden for reelection in 2024.

Shun all FUD!

2024 is not 2016! Please don't allow yourself to be beFUDdled!

Help to GOTV, instead.

[Wild blueberry]

1. Thank you

Keeping my eyes on the prize. Keeping our democracy.

[FarPoint]

2. Who is monitoring the Polling companies?

I suspect Russian trolls are active in creating misinformation by polls.

[MineralMan]

5. Nobody. Polling this early is horribly inaccurate.

It always is.

And yet, there will always be someone trying to convince people that the person they support is losing. That's patent bullshit, as always. Such statements are not designed to help, but to confuse and instill doubt.

Don't be taken in. Stand firm.

[FarPoint]

56. I am not taking them in....

I am very skeptical of them ... That said...we are in a world that is currently, " upside down" and fueled by greed and manlipulation...I sense they are most inaccurate these polls.

[erronis]

52. A polling company is just that - a corporation trying to make money.

They have their agendas and some, for the most part, try to appear unbiased.

But if you're Rasmussen Reports (for example), you have consistently over-rated the (r)s compared to other pollsters. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rasmussen_Reports

From that WikiPedia article, I see a reference to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Association_for_Public_Opinion_Research. I have no idea if they "monitor" these companies - probably not very well if their model is to collect membership fees from the same companies.

[FarPoint]

57. Thank you for the validation...

[Elessar Zappa]

3. Yup.

Polls are worthless this early plus the last few years have shown the limitations of modern polling. Yes, GOTV!

[CurtEastPoint]

4. FUD?

[MineralMan]

6. Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt. FUD.

You've never heard of that?

[CurtEastPoint]

7. Thx. Awake now

[Beastly Boy]

8. I must pay attention to these posts

If I leave doom and gloomers unchallenged, my silence would be validating their nonsense. I can't let that happen.

[MineralMan]

9. Then challenge them. But try to avoid being distracted

by them. It's simple.

[Beastly Boy]

10. Absolutely. Not being distracted would be part of my response.

[IA8IT]

11. "Keep Those Ad Buys Coming" the poll message

[Keepthesoulalive]

12. Thank you

For being the voice of sanity we need

[Prairie_Seagull]

13. Since polls don't try to convince us diligently of their veracity they are nothing more than

Pollpaganda.

IMO

[leftstreet]

14. Elections aren't won by popular vote

If polling indicates danger in swing states, I'm not sure the people talking about it are trying to sew fear, uncertainty, or doubt. Given what happened in 2016 there's probably more vigilance now.

[MineralMan]

16. You are totally missing my point.

I do remember 2016. All too well. And I am more vigilant than ever. Count on it.

[paleotn]

42. Polling at this point is meaningless.

As meaningless as ESPN predicting the March Madness field before college basketball season actually starts. Obama was polling horribly at this point prior to the 2012 election. It's meaningless...yet, some just can't help freaking out about it. I think that says more about them and their psyche than anything else.

[Silent3]

15. I'm not "taken" by it, but I don't believe the polling is all badly done or a conspiracy...

...of fabricated numbers.

Even if it's "fairly normal this far away from an election", it's a damning assessment of the voting public that Trump can be so vile and corrupt without the norm being shaken.

[Demsrule86]

18. Really? If you understood the GOP funded polls...did you know that real clear politcs is taking

money now? And do you really think the latest CNN poll with more than twice as many GOP sampled and bogus 'adjustments' was on the up and up. Go back and look at the last election. You will see the polls were bullshit.

[Silent3]

38. Nearly all of the polls, no matter who is doing them, currently show a tight race

And I have looked at the last election. The polls were not bullshit.

Most of the talk about a "red wave" wasn't based on polls, that was pundit commentary. Not totally unfounded either. We broke from historic norms, which is a damned good thing, but sadly still ended up with a Republican-controlled House, even if not with the huge margin some incorrectly expected.

You confuse "bullshit" with "was off by the few small percent that ended up making the difference".

What the polls are accurately telling us is, despite how awful Trump has been, and the corrupt lows that the entire Republican party has sunk to, we're still in a sharply divided country where elections are won or lost based on fighting for a few small percentage points in the middle, and tiny swings in motivation to turn out and vote.

On single-issue abortion votes we're seeing big turn out and big pro-choice margins. But apparently there's still an annoying, stupidly large portion of those people who will vote for the same Republicans who are trying to impose strict abortion limits anyway.

[paleotn]

46. Bingo. Polling is NOT an exact science.

They're inherently wrong. The real question is how wrong are they. Some are well done and relatively close much of the time. Some are hopelessly flawed. Others have an agenda that precludes any attempt at accuracy. That's right, Rasmussen. I'm looking at you.

[Silent3]

58. Not absolutely precise and "inherently wrong" are not the same thing

Only if a poll was accompanied by a flat-out assertion that it's entirely accurate would it be "inherently wrong". Otherwise, someone's excessive expectations for accuracy is not a fault of the poll.

People here on DU don't confine their condemnation of polls to Rasmussen or any other clearly badly done or biased poll. They bitch about any poll with results they don't like. They are much more quiet about favorable polls.

[Demsrule86]

60. Many of the polls deliberately twist results for someone who paying for the polls...they were

really off last election and early polls...national polls are meaningless...you want to see what is out there...look at CNN with a survey that samples twice as many GOP types and then explains with a bunch of bullshit talking points and no info on how they massaged the data. I always look at the internals of polls and most of these so-called polls are not showing them. Those who believe them want to believe them for some unknown reason. Biden will be the nominee so time to get to work and accept this. Whoever your favorite it is...well there is always 28.

[Silent3]

63. Actually, the polls weren't that far off...

...and national polls aren't meaningless. Do I really need to explain that?

[edisdead]

67. I think you've made your position clear.

Some aren’t buying it.

[Silent3]

70. You should be "buying it". I'm not selling necessarily bad news, just realism and perspective

Here's an excellent article that was posted as the OP of another thread.

Former Obama advisor Dan Pfeiffer: What the New Polls Really Tell Us about 2024

[Demsrule86]

17. Thank you MM. I am so sick of the constant hair on fire posts...and most simply don't

want Biden.

[MineralMan]

21. In 2016, it was Hillary.

Due to FUD, at least in part, she lost the election when too many people stayed home or voted for Jill Stein.

In just three states.

FUD is deadly stuff. It should be called out whenever it appears, and maybe especially here on DU.

It's insidious.

[Demsrule86]

61. I have been trying to tell folks that...FUD is dangerous to our efforts and unproductive. I hope the

the next person who really would rather have a different candidate reconsiders and doesn't post a shitty poll...and these days the right is busy paying for such polls in order to cause voter demoralization. We saw this in the last election. The so-called polls were wrong...some at the last minute changed so they would still be accepted next time by 538 or others...but it was all crap. Real Clear politics for example takes money from the right.

[IrishAfricanAmerican]

19. FUD is all Trump has...

[MineralMan]

23. Very true.

[onetexan]

26. Yup, & it's what the russians are disseminating to make ppl not vote

The disinfomation is qhat they do.

[Takket]

20. even if he is down, national polls mean nothing because of our broken electoral vote system

if he's down several points in enough swing states a year from now, that drumpf could get enough EVs to win, then you should worry.

[MineralMan]

22. Exactly. It's not hair on fire season.

And yet...

[Artcatt]

24. Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt is an industry.

[MineralMan]

25. You are correct, unfortunately.

I hate to see it extended to places like DU. That's very frustrating.

[paleotn]

47. Yep. On both sides of the political spectrum.

Unfortunately, fear sells.

[riverbendviewgal]

27. Fuddle duddell to those polls

I don't believe them. It is too early. Like my late father in law told me "The paper never refuses ink". Wise man .

[CaptainTruth]

28. GOTV indeed!!!

[LiberalFighter]

29. Yes. There are so many factors that were not in play in 2016 and 2020.

That will be to the advantage to Biden.

[KS Toronado]

30. There's a Big Blue Wave coming in 2024 with Biden leading the way!

[MineralMan]

32. Yup.

And a big brown wave that will wash over Trump.

[KS Toronado]

53. Hope the big brown wave is feces.

[mzmolly]

31. Morning Consult (largest sample size) has Biden up by 5 points

nationally.

I've not heard of the pollsters who have tRump leading, previously.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/

That said, I agree the polls at this time are not very meaningful. Espeically given Trump hasn't been convicted of a crime ... yet.

[MineralMan]

33. The naysayers will find something, every time.

[mzmolly]

34. Indeed.

Thanks for being a voice of reason.

[PatrickforB]

35. So...if one sows Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD),

does this mean that one is a Fuddy Duddy?

[MineralMan]

39. Pretty much, yes.

[BaronChocula]

36. I remember having this discussion in 2011

with a few Fox-aholics. They were ASTOUNDED at my confidence that the incumbent president who was a 24/7 punching bag on their chosen entertainment network and who was not polling strongly at the time would win reelection. I even have yet to collect the hundred bucks I bet with at least one of them.

[ananda]

37. Yes, GOTV and we'll be fine!

!!!

[PJMcK]

40. RIGHT ON!i

You speak the truth, MM.

[Hekate]

41. KinR, MineralMan, and nice to see you

[rso]

43. RSO

Not only are polls useless this far out, but most polls oversample republicans. More importantly, given our EC system, national polls are useless, the only polls that matter are the ones of the 6 or 7 battleground states.

[Playingmantis]

44. One positive about the negative

Ever think that these negative polls may have a beneficial effect? I mean if people think its neck and neck maybe they will drop any complacency and get out and work their asses off the insure that Trump and his fascist crew dont have a chance..and ,in fact are beaten into the dust!!

[MineralMan]

45. Nope. All you have to do is look at 2016.

And, when you do, it becomes clear that negative is negative. People who said, "I just don't like Hillary" swung that election the wrong way. And that was a popular meme online, even including here on DU.

Go negative on Trump, not on Democrats of any kind.

[leftstreet]

54. But the polls showed Clinton ahead

And that assumption probably lead to complacency by anyone-but-Trump voters

I think (maybe) the poster meant that tight or frightening polls could lead to turnout

[Playingmantis]

62. yes this is exactly my point

I think complacency is our worst enemy and I hope this poll motivates every decent citizen to work to kick that fascist bastard out on his ass..

[paleotn]

48. I could not agree more.

[ForgedCrank]

49. Thanks for

the education.
However, anyone who votes or not votes based on what polls say probably can't be saved anyway.

[Hortensis]

50. Yup. What's going on reminds me of the 2020 primary

Biden was 60 points ahead before it even started and once the competition began was ALWAYS a top tier of 1, all other candidates far below.

But in spite of all honest polls, the media rushed to use NH and IA declare Biden DEAD and already buried, as if the millions of Democrats who'd always intended to vote for Biden were robots who'd been switched to another setting.

The hostiles wished.

They failed.

And this effort to declare that the over 81 million voters who elected Biden don't exist -- to try to convince US we don't exist, because that is what they're doing again -- will fail also.

[mcar]

51. This +1000!

[Recycle_Guru]

55. hear! hear!

and continue replying to uour kind of posts to sink the neagativity stuff

[betsuni]

59. K&R

[ecstatic]

64. Sounds nice but I don't think it's a realistic approach

A lot of people are genuinely concerned about the age thing, and then you have the people who are concerned about the people who are concerned.

The truth is I'm hearing a lot of doubt from my own family members, so I know there's something to the polls. No, they do not support trump. But they don't want Biden due to his age. It sucks and I passionately explain to them why they're wrong, using all of my credibility as collateral. I think in the end they'll trust me and take my suggestion even though they aren't enthusiastic about Biden. I think that's all we can do but burying our heads in the sand is not smart. Look at what happened in Florida with tiny d getting 60% of the vote, assuming that was even a valid election. It's not that Democrats voted for him, it's that Democrats stayed home. That's what we need to worry about.

[mountain grammy]

66. I'm hearing it too

from friends and family.. My response? Nothing! I'm saying nothing until 2024.. To hell with them, I'm 75, nearly 76, and I'm enjoying watching Joe win. Just when it looks bleakest, there he is, getting it done, saving the world from Russia and America from tryanny, that's all!

I don't care if he's 90! I'll save my comments till next year! Meantime, GO JOE!!!

[WestCoastDem42]

68. #ShunTheFUD"

"#ShunTheFUD" would be a great hashtag if anyone has a Xwitter account. I don't so I can't.

[MineralMan]

69. Yeah, I don't use Xitter, either.

I do use the transliteration of the Chinese sound of "X," though.