Former Obama advisor Dan Pfeiffer: What the New Polls Really Tell Us about 2024 (must-read)

[highplainsdem]

https://www.messageboxnews.com/p/what-the-new-polls-really-tell-us?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2

What the New Polls Really Tell Us about 2024
Dems are already panicking about the polls, here's how to think about the numbers

DAN PFEIFFER
SEP 10, 2023
As if the end of summer wasn’t painful enough, America’s media organizations decided to gift us an avalanche of 2024 general election polling — all of which paints an alarming portrait of a race where the literal fate of democracy is on the line. CNN, the Wall Street Journal, and others have polls out, showing a dead-heat race with major vulnerabilities for President Biden related to his age and his handling of the economy. Most folks assumed that 2024 would be a close election, but Trump has gained strength in spite of the 91 felony charges. This has Democrats very, very concerned. In fact, “very, very concerned” might be an understatement; my Twitter mentions and group chats are bordering on panic. I feel a little responsible because I wrote about the closeness of the race recently, and Jon Favreau and I discussed it at length in the most recent episode of Pod Save America.

If your approach to these polls (or any polls) is to ignore them, kudos — you are healthier than I and can stop reading right now. If you are like me and are addicted to riding on the pollercoaster, I wanted to provide some perspective. I am not trying to assuage your anxiety. You are right to be anxious. This will be an incredibly close election, and the stakes could not be higher. However, perspective and context can help you manage that anxiety.


1. Some Historical Context

At this exact moment twelve years ago, I was sitting in my West Wing office looking at internal campaign polling that showed Barack Obama losing to a generic Republican candidate. Obama’s approval rating in public polling was under 40 percent. The Democratic chattering class had not yet suffered through the shock of 2016, so they were less likely to panic, but Obama’s re-election prospects were still concerning in September of 2011.

As Chris Hayes pointed out on his show last week, it is normal for an incumbent President to be in a dead heat more than a year before the election. In September of 1983, Ronald Reagan led Walter Mondale by one point in a Gallup poll. Fourteen months later, Reagan won 58.9 percent of the popular vote, 525 electoral votes, and 49 states. In August of 1995, Bill Clinton and Bob Dole were tied 48-48 in a CNN/Time poll. Clinton then defeated Dole by more than nine points.

-snip-

Much more at the link. Please read all of it.


Found this thanks to a tweet from Molly Jong-Fast:

Link to tweet

[spanone]

1. 👍🏼...K&R...👍🏼

[Demsrule86]

3. I worked the Obama campaign, and i was terrified when I saw the initial internal polls...in

fact, I cried.

[DFW]

28. I was at a meeting in July 2012 in Washington

It was with David Simas and David Plouffe (after lunch, I then had an hour with Obama, himself).

They warned that the polls would pull to about even by Labor Day, and that they would be the ones pulling their hair out, so we didn't have to. They then said it was OK to panic, but only slightly, and that nothing they perceived would really stand in the way of Obama's re-election. They knew what they were talking about. They knew what they were doing. They were right, too.

[2naSalit]

2. K&R

[sheshe2]

4. I watched and read everything when Obama ran.

I ignored the polls and listened to the man himself. I knew he was going to win...I just knew it.

[Glaisne]

5. For the media it's all about

the horse race. Because nothing matters more than ratings. Heaven forbid there should be some real analysis of the candidates.

[Randomthought]

6. In 2019

No one gave Joe Biden a chance, he wasn't even on the radar, but who won and who is president?
It's early days, anything can happen and many things will happen.

[hay rick]

7. What the polls tell me.

The polls tell me what the media (more nakedly, the owners of the media) want us to be talking about. And what they don't want us talking about.

They want us to talk about Biden's age. They don't want us to talk about Trump being only 4 years younger, but already flopping around with a 300-word functional vocabulary.

They have reduced Trump's brazen corruption to numbers (4 indictments, 91 felony counts) and suggest reasonable people could see persecution and prosecutorial overreach. Equal attention needs to be paid to Hunter Biden's taxes and gun folly.

They don't want a long discussion and close examination of climate change. But we can always talk about the weather.

[onetexan]

21. THIS!!☝️

[ProfessorGAC]

27. To Clarify A Point...

...there are no "owners" of the media. CNN, for example, has no entity with 8% of shares, and that is Vanguard which manages over a trillion of 401k money, the retirement funds of millions of typical workers.
The single largest individual shareholder has 3% of outstanding shares & is uninvolved in operations.
Disney (ABC) is similar except that the 2 numbers used are even lower, just like Comcast (NBC).
The problem may be a management who is focused on the wrong things, but there's no cabal of "owners" who are directing coverage of the news.

[hay rick]

35. I'm not suggesting that there is a smoke-filled room.

I do take issue with the assumption that broad-based stock ownership assures democratic behavior in the board room. My observation is that the current framing of issues and choices to focus on some while ignoring others benefits the interests of a few to the detriment of the many. The mechanics of how that is achieved is a separate discussion.

[ProfessorGAC]

36. There Was No Such Assumption

You are arguing against a point I never made.
I acknowledged the motives (and incompetence) of the executives.
So, not sure what your objection is.
The broad based ownership, however, is a fact.
You said "owners". That's inaccurate. My objection is quite clear.

[LiberalFighter]

32. Everytime they bring up his age his health and that of the other guy.

Complain of his age? Carter will be 99 next month.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

8. Thank you for posting this

[Laura PourMeADrink]

9. Actually read the article. Very interesting especially that

2021-22 were normal and as accurate as is typical.

Thanks for posting

[betsuni]

10. K&R

[Cha]

11. "..Pollercoaster.. " No Kidding. I

don't pay attention to polls.

TY

[ailsagirl]

12. Smart!!

Hi, Cha

[Cha]

17. Aloha ailsagir!😎

[True Blue American]

20. The polls are wrong. Even Cook said

“ Polls are getting harder to take all the time!”

For me , I am sick to death of the media repeating them over and over as “Gospel truth,” when we all know they are lying. I read an article that was headed,” The Media Is Lying to you!” We all know that is true.

[Cha]

24. Yes the Media LIES.. that's

why I stopped them ALL in November 2002.

Aloha TBA

[True Blue American]

25. Lying polls.

[RandySF]

13. There was even talk of a primary challenge in 2012.

[Cha]

18. Oh yeah I remember well.. Too bad

about those in 2010 that sat home to teach lessons.

But Pres Obama prevailed in spite of all the doom and gloom.

I read mitt hadn't prepared a concession speech.

[betsuni]

22. I read in a book that Howard Dean stopped that person but can't remember

which book and it's bugging me.

[DallasNE]

14. His Handling Of The Economy?

Biden's record on handling the economy is outstanding. He has been the greatest job creator in our history. He inherited supply chain issues related to Trump's tariffs and the hangover caused by Covid and he managed both very well. Biden also inherited looming inflation that has turned out to be rather tame compared to what the doomsayers were forecasting. The last time we had an inflation headache it lasted for more than a decade. This time it has lasted less than 2 years. Yes, we have the war in Ukraine now putting modest pressure on inflation but there is no reason to panic. At least, not yet. In my view, Biden has the best record on the economy in my lifetime and I am 83 years old.

This time next year Donald Trump will be appealing numerous felony convictions so will he even be the Republican nominee? I have my doubts. This is no time to panic.

[Cha]

19. IKR.. Filthy RW & media Lies.

TY!

[lees1975]

34. I have my doubts, too, that Trump will even be the GOP nominee.

And I doubt the accuracy of the polls at this point. Even composite pollsters have reluctantly admitted that conservative polls are flooding them with data that is based on bot models, not real gathered data.

My guess is that if the election were held tomorrow, Biden would get 55% of the popular vote and well over 300 electoral votes, including North Carolina and Ohio that he didn't get in 2020.

[Hekate]

15. KnRnBookmark

[BaronChocula]

16. I have yet to collect

on several bets I made at this time in 2011 that Obama would win reelection when polls showed him in the same place. People can't help living in the latest snapshot without any context of how time plays out. The week of that calamitous pullout from Afghanistan, a friend who thinks he's a genius because he can cite WSJ op-eds insisted "this is really bad, I think this is really going to affect Biden's ability to get anything done domestically." I explained to him that bad things happen to all presidents in snapshots, but of course it went in one ear and out the other. Two years later, Biden has gotten more done in one term than most get done in two. But Mr. Wall Street Journal hasn't had anything to say about Biden's success. Of course.

[True Blue American]

23. Polls.

https://www.palmerreport.com/analysis/so-much-for-that-poll/51962/

Shows how media lies, but what is worse so many quote them as Gospel.

The media did not even show President Biden’s great speech in Hanoi. The only station that showed the whole thing was Fox News, even the questions and answers.

Of course they wanted to attack, but even when the media sows him they cut it off in the middle to start simpering about something Trump did! They followed Trump breathlessly when he went to. nK, but did not even bother, except brief clips.

And they wonder why we say,” The media is not your friend.”

[True Blue American]

26. Cheap Skates, too!

"

[peggysue2]

29. There's also an interesting link within this piece

If you go inside Pfeiffer's article, you'll find a link to Jim Messina's state-of-play analyses of the 2024 election highlighting Joe Biden's advantages and his challenges.

One of the points I found interesting (if not mind-blowing) is: 71% of the electorate says the economy is not so good to bad while 60% says their personal finances are good to excellent. Real disconnect here, so obviously Biden's challenge is to bang the drum on his real economic accomplishes to counter the endless Trump narrative that he and he alone produced the best economy EVAH. Total fabrication but this is the power of constant propaganda and Big Lie spin-offs.

The underlying message is: this is a winnable election but not without hard work and commitment from Democrats across the country.

We can do this! Because we must and we've done it before!

[BumRushDaShow]

30. "Biden's challenge is to bang the drum on his real economic accomplishes"

He HAS been but it is barely covered by the M$M or has been drowned out by 45 and his cabal's criminality or by natural disaster reporting, or mass-shooting news (and there has been a lot of all of that recently).

And when it is posted about or reported, the eyerolling starts, even here on DU. I have tried to even post his live video speeches that are done at various locations around the country touting the jobs - and particularly what is happening with both the BIB (Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill) and IRA (Inflation Reduction Act), e.g., the latest in the U.S. on Labor Day with a speech in front of a union here in Philly, and it barely got any replies.

Every chance they can, the President, VP, and cabinet have been doing pressers around the country and posting on social media like "X" (tweets) regarding the accomplishments - particularly when economic reports come out (that I also post weekly when I can).

Ignored.

The same thing happened under Obama when "the list" was posted over and over and summarily ridiculed, dismissed, or ignored.

Being in PA, a swing state, I *have* seen the multitude of Biden commercials, including his own and 2 PACs (Future Forward & Emily's list) - at least on MSNBC. I know they usually target these to certain locales and often show a variety depending on the market. But it seems that doesn't "count".

Right now, in response to the overwhelming criminality of 45, the media have decided to promote a "narrative" that introduces and magnifies "FUD" (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt) to bring Biden down to 45's level. And when you have "push polling", introducing controversial and unproven allegations to the poll questions (i.e., "Hunter Biden" that was prominent in that CNN poll), then that serves to actually "introduce" a polling population to a false storyline that then sows "doubt", because most people are not doing deep dives into politics, and rely on the "news media" to tell them what is going on.

[peggysue2]

33. Yes, the Biden Administration has been broadcasting the Good News

But in these early days, the message is getting diminished in the noise and Biden's campaign is just warming up. The campaign will need to continue broadcasting, again and again and again. Until they're blue in the face, as well as pickup the message of our existential threat from the America First movement.

The 'Saving Democracy and American Freedoms' worked in 2020 and 2022 as well. That message is just as relevant now, even more so.

As for Trump? He's more and more erratic as these legal cases move forward. The details of his crimes and sedition will eventually seep into the public consciousness and journalists will cover it ad infinitum. Despite all the howling from Republicans, the J6 Committee investigation had an impact on the electorate.

I truly believe this will turn around in Biden's favor despite the shitty reporting and polls we're seeing now.

But it's not going to be a walk in the park, even though it should be. As the article states, this is a winnable election as long as we all do our part in whatever form we're able and/or not delude ourselves that it's going to be easy-peasy.

We can do this! Even against current headwinds.

[Aristus]

31. I wonder less about the numbers generated by the polls, and more about the wording of the questions

themselves.

It wouldn't surprise me to learn that some questions include:

"People throughout history have died much younger than Joe Biden. Isn't he too old to be President?"

"No President has ever before been indicted for crimes. Donald Trumps' indictments are unlawful and unfair, aren't they?"

As MAD Magazine reported decades ago, it's all in how you word the question.

[inwiththenew]

37. I don't know that historical context has much value

This isn't like a McCain or Romney or Bush running. It's a guy who attempted a coup and is facing 91 counts and has made no mistaking his intentions should he get back in. He shouldn't even be within 10 points. We are way off the map as far as history of presidential elections in this country. We've never had anything like this in the entire almost 250 years of this country.

[Elessar Zappa]

38. Keep panicking if you like.

I think we’re in excellent shape to win in 2024.

[gristy]

41. Yes indeed,

the media's and Republicans' normalization attempts notwithstanding.

[4lbs]

39. All Biden needs to do is make 2024 just like 2020.

In 2020, Biden got 306 EV and won by 7 million popular votes.

Even giving GA and AZ back to whatever GOP candidate gets the nod, still gets Biden 279 EV because GA and AZ combined are 27 EV.

The only way the GOP wins in 2024 is if they steal (literally steal) some blue states like they did in 2016.

That is why they are pushing so hard for third-party candidates. They are trying to make 2024 so much like 2016, however, the 3 blue states that Dumpster won in 2016, won't be friendly to him or most of the GOP like they were then.

The backlash after Roe v. Wade's reversal and others will make sure of that.

Also, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania all have Democratic Governors, like they had in 2020, and will in 2024.

In 2016, Michigan and Wisconsin had Republicans in complete control, and Pennsylvania was further right than it is now. Biden is from Pennsylvania (born in Scranton) and I don't see him losing his birth state. If Biden wins his birth state, he wins re-election. That's my marker.

Now, Pennsylvania has a Republican SOS, but he was appointed by the Democratic Governor, and I doubt he would have done that if he were pre-disposed to liking Dumpy or any of the far-right GOP.

Michigan and Wisconsin have and will have Democratic SOS in 2024.

[SouthernDem4ever]

40. I could care less what the polls say

I am more worried about the elections being conducted properly and fairly. There seem to be way too many repuglicans willing to just break the law for a despot asshole.