Americans Are Down on Biden. Why Does His Party Keep Winning Elections?

[RandySF]

For nearly two years, poll after poll has found Americans in a sour mood about President Biden, uneasy about the economy and eager for younger leaders of the country.

And yet when voters have actually cast ballots, Democrats have delivered strong results in special elections — the sort of contests that attract little attention but can serve as a useful gauge for voter enthusiasm.

In special elections this year for state legislative offices, Democrats have exceeded Mr. Biden’s performance in the 2020 presidential election in 21 of 27 races, topping his showing by an average of seven percentage points, according to a study conducted by the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, the party’s campaign arm for state legislative races.

Those results, combined with an 11-point triumph for a liberal State Supreme Court candidate in Wisconsin this spring and a 14-point defeat of an Ohio ballot referendum this summer in a contest widely viewed as a proxy battle over abortion rights, run counter to months of public opinion polling that has found Mr. Biden to be deeply unpopular heading into his re-election bid next year.

Taken together, these results suggest that the favorable political environment for Democrats since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade has endured through much of 2023. Democratic officials have said since the summer of 2022, when the ruling came down, that abortion is both a powerful motivator for the party’s voters and the topic most likely to persuade moderate Republicans to vote for Democratic candidates.





https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/26/us/politics/democrats-special-elections-biden.html

[Walleye]

1. Maybe we should consider the fact that Biden knows more about winning elections than the pundits do

[Happy Hoosier]

2. FWIW....

I did hear a poll analyst saying that Approve/Disapprove numbers are a bit misleading. Among those who "slightly disapprove" of Biden, Biden leads by 18 points.

People who are disconnected might buy in to the "Biden is too old" or "Biden caused inflation" narrative, at least for now, but The GQP isn't a viable alternative.

[bob4460]

3. The polling model is very flawed

The polling model is only getting 60 and 70-year-olds with landlines. Gen x and younger won't answer the phone for anybody they don't know and very few have landline phones. Not to mention the large amount of new voters in 2022 and that will be voting in 2024.

[Abnredleg]

9. Not true

Polling has kept up with demographic and technological changes. That’s why it’s become so expensive to do good polling, and why we are seeing fewer polls.

[Think. Again.]

11. Polling is extremely...

...well suited to the manipulation of data to achieve desired, pre-determined results.

[Abnredleg]

13. Which is why you do comparisons

between polls. Outliers soon become apparent.

[Think. Again.]

16. OR...

...you could look at the actual occurances the polling is supposed to be getting a snapshot of.

Is Biden Popular? Look at the election successes of his Party colleagues. Better yet, look at his own results in the coming election.

I remember when they were doing "exit polling" during some election a few cycles ago. The vast majority of the exit polls were presented as saying one candidate was strongly leading everywhere. Then the results came in and the polls proved to be completely off base.

[bob4460]

21. How about that Red wave the polls predicted?

[Abnredleg]

22. 538's end numbers were fairly accurate

but that was because their algorithm factors in the historical accuracy of the polling companies. Plus you had “polling” companies created by GOP operatives specifically to game the polling average sites such as RCP. Yes, there is a lot of crap polling, but the traditional polling companies are working hard to do good polling. That’s why I only pay attention to certain polling companies.

[Blues Heron]

4. Biden is not deeply unpopular.

These polls are full of it. You can design a poll to say what you want, especially if you over sample the pukes like they have been doing.

[dlk]

5. Polls can be designed for intended results

As we are seeing.

[bucolic_frolic]

6. Success climbs a wall of worry, just like the stock market

[everyonematters]

7. In 2022, Democrats did well in special elections.

The Republicans still won the house and got more votes for congress. Biden is not on the ballot in special elections.

[Recycle_Guru]

18. but that is almost always expected--some gains by opposition party in first midterm

them fact is, we kept the US Senate and GOP barely scraped together a thin majority. It is widely seen by political analysts as a good sign that most of the country was not motivated against Biden's administration.

[JohnSJ]

8. and I suspect that is the flaw of many of these national approval polls. Someone who leans right

will disapprove of Biden, and not vote for him, while someone to the left may disapprove of Biden “not doing enough”, but will vote for Biden against the Republican crazies.

In addition, I suspect a significant number of people do not answer calls from numbers they do not recognize with all the spam calls occurring, and those who do answer calls from numbers they do not recognize are from an older demographic, which skews the polls.

It is these types of changes that may alter the reliability of polls today from what they were before.

All that being said, Democrats must come out and show why they are better in running the government, then those who want to tear it down

[yardwork]

10. I like Biden. My son, who is very, very far to the left, likes Biden.

Ordinary people - who are rarely represented by the NYT - like Biden because he seems sincere. We like that he told Trump to shut up when he was constantly interrupting in the debate. We like that Biden left a VM for his son, telling him he loved him and urging him to get help. We like Dark Brandon.

We're not the only ones. I don't need David Brooks to tell me how to think.

[delisen]

14. Biden has a Truman-like persona I find appealing.

H was never my first choice for president but I see no good reason to vote for someone else against him.

We have big storms ahead of us. He is tried, true, honest and won’t run scared.

[Think. Again.]

12. The headline is flawed...

...to be accurate and informative, it should read:

"Polls Say Americans Are Down on Biden. Why Does His Party Keep Winning Elections?"

And then the honest journalistic reporting that follows the headlines should report on the fact that although the polls say this one thing, they are obviously very wrong because of the verifiable fact that Biden's party keeps winning elections.

[msfiddlestix]

17. I agree the headline is very flawed. When I read "Down" in the context, I intrepret as "approves"

.

When I say something like "i'm down with that!" It means I'm game. I'm in favor of it.

It never has meant what the author intended. I'm wondering if it's a journalist or AI?

[Brainfodder]

15. Whose actually polled?

The country is BLUE, perhaps very light blue but BLUE nonetheless?

Biden won by about 10% last time against Trump, flaunt that % once in a while?

[marble falls]

19. Stop following polls!!!

[Bobstandard]

20. More New York Times horse race journalism

Any data that can be used to promote the media’s ‘horse race’ obsession will be spun to that end. So much so that Democrats winning elections count less than questionable polls and visits to diners in Republican states.