A Rated Marist Poll - Joe Biden 49% TFG 47%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/2024-presidential-contest/


That's like a 12-point shift in two weeks in favor of Joe but you can't really compare polls from different pollsters.

[Recycle_Guru]

1. the slob slide will continue

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. Their congressional leader was expelled and their party leader is in court.

Not good for the brand.

[Celerity]

11. lol, slob side

[JohnSJ]

3. Frankly I don't buy any of the national polls right now as a predictive of what will happen

[Recycle_Guru]

4. I don't either..but I think we'll see a long slide downward in next 6 months

for slobby

[JohnSJ]

6. I sure hope so

[Demsrule86]

16. With all the issues with polling and some like real clear politics are funded by Republicans now...

I don't know about going by the polls.

[Recycle_Guru]

20. in my mind, directional trending more important than absolute number

[The_Casual_Observer]

5. Trump isn't going to advertise this one.

[Samix]

10. What was Hillary's lead in 2016 when Trump won, in percentages?

I’m trying to see if a candidate can win with a 2% deficit.

[Demsrule86]

13. 16 is a completely different animal...Biden is an incumbent. This is more akin to 12...

[Recycle_Guru]

21. Dems were over sampled then. and under performed to polls

reverse is true the past election cycles

[MyNameIsJonas]

32. Not 2020, tho.

The average had Biden winning nationally by 7.2% and he won by 4.5%. That's a difference of 2.7 points - a larger difference than the national polls forecasted in 2016 (in the final average, Hillary led Trump by 3.2 points and won by 2.1 points).

To compare poll vs poll, the final 2020 Marist poll had Biden beating Trump 54-43.

Nowhere near the actual results.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

26. Welcome to DU.

[DemocraticPatriot]

7. "Democrats Generally Satisfied with Biden as Democratic Nominee"

"Three in ten Democrats and Democratic leaning independents say they would be very satisfied if Joe Biden is their party’s nominee. 46% report they would be satisfied. 80% of Democrats and Democratic leaning independents have a favorable impression of Biden."


So almost all of those Democrats who tell pollsters they don't want Biden to run, or are 'concerned' about his age---

will still be "satisfied" with Biden as the nominee!


I think we worry too much about this thing...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

28. Joe's age isn't optimum* but we have to play the hand we're dealt.

I believe age is just a proxy for general dissatisfaction.





*I like the job he's doing.

[DemocraticPatriot]

34. Yeah, like "inflation" which is aggravated by corporate PRICE-GOUGING....

and what party would you guess that most of the people who 'set prices' belong to ????


The Republican party.

There was much price inflation because of the pandemic, yes,
but corporate Republicans took advantage of it, and have advanced prices further than was necessary, IMHO.


My observation of this has been my experience as a 'Kroger shopper'.

Pre-pandemic, Kroger groceries always seemed the most reasonable prices....
(and usually better than dollar stores...)

Now, there are a few products whose prices have increased by 100 percent or more,
(and forget about beef--- $20 for one steak is INSANE, good thing I can live without it)

Prices on some products increased by 100 percent, while "inflation" was supposed to be only about 8 percent...

Things like a bottle of generic hot sauce doubled in price...

Kroger brand soups went from 88 cents to 1.19---
(and the Dollar General still has MANY soups for $1 a can--- what is wrong with THAT Picture???
Such stores had always higher prices than Kroger...)


Pre-cooked bacon I like to buy to bake "bacon-cheese-tomato" things on wheat toast, under the oven broiler--- something my mother used to make---- (pre-cooked so I don't have to fry the damn bacon is easier and cleaner)...

Well, I recently dicovered I could buy a package of "pre-cooked bacon" at the Dollar General a block from my house for only $3.65---
about two dollars less than at Kroger (but the Kroger I shop at, seems to have "dropped" their own brand of pre-cooked bacon in favor of the more expensive "name-brand" items...)


I'm pretty sure "inflation fatigue" is entirely due to food prices, and the always evolving gasoline prices...
and I have been angry about that myself, but I certainly didn't blame President Biden---



After all, President Biden has no role in setting the price of hot sauce, soup, or pre-cooked bacon...

[DemocraticPatriot]

40. Agreed.... and it is mostly about "inflation"----

which is now statistically about as low as it has been for the past ten years....

English translation:
Corporations are wringing as much out of "inflation" as they can get--- way beyond the "statistical" inflation


When prices for groceries are supposedly inflated by 8 or 10 or 20 percent,
but the price of certain specific items have increased by as much as 100 percent
in the past few years, that IS corporate greed....

I used to swear by Kroger for the lowest prices,
but they are screwing the people wherever they can--

when 'Dollar General' prices some of the same "generic" type food items
lower than Kroger, "there is something wrong with this picture"....

(soups immediately come to mind...)


I have said since last year, that the people setting prices are mostly Republicans---

and it is "win-win" for them--- they raise prices beyond the inflation rates,
and their company makes more money, and they HURT President Joe Biden...
who gets blaimed for it, but has no role in setting prices...

[DemocraticPatriot]

41. Looks like I repeated myself! LOL oh well, it IS "REPUBLICAN INFLATION!"

and ought to be repeated!

[budkin]

8. I'm done with polls good or bad

They aren't ever close to accurate anymore. Just tools to drive media coverage.

[roamer65]

9. There is only one poll that matters.

5 November 2024.

[Demsrule86]

12. I don't think polls this early tell us much...but polls in the last two weeks were suspect...ABC

in particular is complete nonsense. But still, it makes a nice change from the constant drumbeat of gloom. Thanks and Rec

[DemocraticPatriot]

35. Yes, they only give us a "snapshot of sentiment" at this point in time--

which may or may not be "flawed" in one respect or another---

but they cannot be 'predictive' of what will happen in the November 2024 General election,

which is a "political eternity away" from now...



Still, it is always better to be seen as 'ahead' rather than behind---

so I like this poll.... was getting pretty sick of all the pro-Trump or even-Trump polls....

[Kingofalldems]

14. It's a long way to Tiperrary.

A long way to go but I'll take it.

[WarGamer]

17. This poll confirms my personal biases, thus it is an excellent poll, accurate and well run.

Funny how polling this far out gets so many folks worked up...

As everyone says... let's wait a year and see what polling says.

[Kingofalldems]

23. Did I say that?

Don't put words in my mouth.

[WarGamer]

30. lol... OK

[WarGamer]

15. The not so good part... Independents favoring Trump +8%

[Demsrule86]

18. I don't really believe that and lets see when state polls come in...that is what is important.

[WarGamer]

19. Agreed...

Doesn't matter if it's Biden +32% in California...

Or Trump +26% in Alabama...

Let's see some PA, WI, MI, AZ, GA and VA numbers.

[Recycle_Guru]

22. how many total are undecided. that is usually huge at this point

[DemocraticPatriot]

36. Independents favoring Trump +8% but with Biden still up plus 2...

Personally, I did not like the "don't like either candidate" group with Trump winning 2-1 in that group,
but Biden nevertheless in the lead overall... well, the second part is all right...



I don't think the Republicants and Trump are going to 'improve their margin' with independents over the next year....

[brooklynite]

24. What this says is...the race is close

As the Biden campaign and every political expert says.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

27. Until he's convicted on any of the 91 charges and put under the most onerous house arrest.

[DemocraticPatriot]

37. Yeah.... closer than it 'should' be---

but only a "snapshot in time" which is only accurate to a degree which is impossible to ascertain...


Still, nice to see another "inaccurate poll" which puts President Biden ahead,
there have been too few of those lately.....


Yes, it will be "close", probably too damned close in the 'swing states' which will decide the election...


but I am calling Michigan for Biden.

(of course, we have to do the work... but we will win here)

[scipan]

25. Third party candidates

When third party candidates are factored into the 2024 presidential mix, Biden (40%) and Trump (39%) remain competitive among voters nationally. Three percent would vote for a Libertarian candidate, and 2% would vote for a Green Party candidate. 12% of voters would support another independent or third-party candidate.

[flamingdem]

29. Excuse me but..

.. this is INSANE!


But.. we know this.

Will it help if Chump is in prison?

[DemocraticPatriot]

38. Will it help HIM, or Us?? Sorry, I don't know anymore...

Logic and 'Elections 101' say it would help US,

but with the Republcants having become the "pro-crime party"

fucks up all the previously "obvious" political calculations...



I just hope the majority of the American people come to their senses,
before they cast their votes in 2024...

[Takket]

31. oh so the Nov 2024 election ISN'T already over in Oct 2023?

[DemocraticPatriot]

39. And a virtual ROUT in the electoral college....

although less than his first election, it still was "not close"...


I was closely following the results that night.... when Romney lost Florida, I knew it was over....


(so what the fuck has happened to Florida since then??? lol
too many Republican retirees moving there, perhaps---

hope they enjoy the rising water levels...)