From a Vanguard briefing: 70% chance of a recession in mid-2024

[brooklynite]

Matches my wife's (Treasury Dept) assessment.

[BannonsLiver]

1. Now when has that been heard before.

Hmmm🤔

[dchill]

17. So typical of the msm "moderate" consensus crafters.

[roamer65]

2. "Higher for longer" will probably burst some price bubbles.

It did in 2007.

[Hekate]

3. KnR

[bucolic_frolic]

4. It will be mild. Remote, home-gigs, consumerism will not dim much.

Employment market is strong.

[MyNameIsJonas]

5. I remember when Bloomberg economists predicted 100% chance of a recession within a year - last year.

lol

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-17/forecast-for-us-recession-within-year-hits-100-in-blow-to-biden?leadSource=uverify%20wall

[BannonsLiver]

7. The recession predictions have been flowing since Covid started.

In March-April 2020 Covid was going to destroy consumer confidence and spending. We all saw how that went. And then for the last 2 years a few times a year these analyst dipshits start beating the recession drum again.

[Recycle_Guru]

10. oligarchs hate that improved wages and working conditions are happening

so they want a recession and unemployment to punish labor

[brooklynite]

11. So President Biden appointed an oligarch as Fed Chair?

Inflation (mortgages/home prices) is good?

[Recycle_Guru]

13. Jerome Powell was nominated by Trump

higher wages does not equal inflation. It can contribute, but talk to me when we get to the inflation-adjusted wages of 1973.

[former9thward]

18. He was re-nominated by Biden.

No requirement to do so. He is a Biden nominee.

[Recycle_Guru]

19. In my estimate, $50 to 60 million net worth isn't quite "Oligarch" status

[brush]

6. What happened to all the soft landing assessments that were being talked up just weeks ago?

[MyNameIsJonas]

8. They will return. It's all a cycle...

And everything is predicated on the job market cooling off to the point we dip into a recession. But each time they make that prediction, the economy gets a boost from a strong jobs report or a better than expected lowering of inflation.

These people like to doom.

[Recycle_Guru]

9. A year ago there was 100% chance of recession this year--consensus view

https://www.theringer.com/2023/8/8/23823982/economist-prediction-2023-recession-jason-furman

[Yavin4]

12. Do any of these models take changing demographics into account?

The entire baby boomer generation will reach retirement age in 5 years, and a year after that, the GenXers will begin their march into retirement. And that doesn't factor in early retirements. Labor shortages will be a persistent problem for the foreseeable future which will act as a counter balance to any slow down in spending.

[pnwmom]

14. Of course. The large corporations want the Republican to win, so they'll do their part. nt

[Sky Jewels]

15. Mmmhmm.

We'll see. The "experts" have had a pretty shitty track record as of late.

[WarGamer]

16. Which would mean negative GDP in either Q1+Q2 or Q2+Q3...

It's possible... depends on the end point for the Fed rate hikes.

Mortgage rates just hit 7.49%

Powell is bound and determined to crush inflation even if it means taking the economy down with it.