Emerson Ohio Senate and Presidential polls

[Polybius]

It's a year and a month out, so the close Senate race could turn around with so many undecideds. However, Trump leading by 12 is disturbing.

Ohio - Trump vs. Biden: Trump 45, Biden 33 Trump +12

Ohio Senate - Brown vs. Dolan: Dolan 38, Brown 36
Ohio Senate - Brown vs. LaRose: LaRose 39, Brown 38
Ohio Senate - Brown vs. Moreno: Brown 35, Moreno 33


Ohio 2024 Poll: Brown Faces Competitive General Election; Trump Leads Biden in 2024 Matchup

[unc70]

1. Many young or minority voters are undecided

Roughly 35-40% undecided.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. It's one poll and the Ohio presidential election won't be seriously contested.

[BannonsLiver]

3. I don't know why it's disturbing

Ohio hasn’t been a swing state in a long time. Politically it behaves more and more like a southern state with colder weather.

[Polybius]

5. Because I had hoped that it would swing back

I don't know what's gotten into Ohio. It's polling to the right of Texas. What did Republicans do that's so good to the people of Ohio?

[MyNameIsJonas]

7. Not hard to see why it's disturbing.

If Biden is going four-points worse in Ohio compared to 2020, it's not unreasonable to think he could be doing four-points worse in states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. If he is, he loses those three states and the election.

[BannonsLiver]

8. It wouldn't necessarily be unreasonable

However, it would reflect a fundamental misunderstanding of how this works, recent history etc. And in any case none of those states were mentioned by the poster.

[MyNameIsJonas]

9. It isn't a misunderstanding of how things work.

Ohio isn't going to be won by Biden but the state still has enough in common with its neighbors to use as a barometer on how Biden is doing in the region.

He's doing 4 points worse than he did in 2020.

He's doing 6 points worse than Tim Ryan did in 2022.

Biden barely won in 2020 and even a small shift of support away from in 2024 could lose him reelection.

And what we've seen the last few election cycles is that Clinton in 2016 did 11 points worse than Obama in 2012 in Ohio. She also did significantly worse in regional states.

But with how close 2020 was, Biden can't really afford to lose support. And since elections typically don't act in a vacuum, Biden doing four-points worse, even in Ohio, could suggest a bigger problem in actual swing states.

Which would explain why the latest Michigan poll has him losing to Trump by 7:

https://archive.ph/pM0yJ

[Demsrule86]

16. 2020 wasn't that close.

[MyNameIsJonas]

22. It was the second closest election in the last 40 years.

The only election closer was 2000.

Biden essentially won by 42,921 votes across Arizona (10,457), Georgia (11,779), and Wisconsin (20,682).

Remember, we don't pick presidents by popular vote. In the electoral college, all it would have taken was for Trump to win 43,000 across those three states and he would have tied Biden in the EC and likely won via the House.

2020 was extremely close at the state level and I see no reason to believe 2024 will be any different.

Even more so now that the electoral college has changed due to electoral votes shifting.

If Biden loses those three states, states he won last time by an average of just 14,000 votes, he loses to Trump 272-266 unless he flips one of the following: Texas, North Carolina, Ohio or Florida. And that's assuming he doesn't lose Pennsylvania (a state he won by 82,000 votes last time or Michigan).

[Demsrule86]

23. Biden isn't going to lose and honestly, your post is doom and gloom and misreading of early

polls.

[MyNameIsJonas]

24. I don't think he's going to lose, either.

But no, I'm not misreading polls lol

If the election was held today, polls indicate the election would be a toss-up. Fortunately, there's still a year out from the election.

[Sky Jewels]

4. Ohio ... The Florida of the North

My home state has been so disappointing. It has a lot of small/medium cities; there's no reason it should be this fucking red.

[brooklynite]

6. Why"disturbing"?

Ohio hasn’t been competitive in Presidential elections since 2012.

[Polybius]

25. Disturbing because a 12 point Trump lead could bring Brown down a few points

We need that Senate seat.

[Demsrule86]

10. More doom and gloom crappy polls I see.

Right-leaning poll with 43 registered voters...not even likely voters. Did you even look at it...and they tell nothing how they picked the participant...just mumbo jumbo.

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/ohio-2024-poll-brown-faces-competitive-general-election-trump-leads-biden-in-2024-matchup/

The Emerson College Polling Ohio poll was conducted October 2-4, 2023. The sample consisted of 438 registered voters, with a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, party, race, and education based on the general population using a sample of n=479 participants and allowing the natural fallout to create the sample of n=438. Turnout modeling is based on US Census parameters, and Ohio voter registration and voter turnout data by regions (OH SOS). Data was collected by contacting a list of landlines via Interactive Voice Response (IVR) and emails provided by Aristotle, along with an online panel of voters provided by Alchemer.

It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and know with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.

This survey was conducted by Emerson College Polling, and questions included in this release are all sponsored by Emerson College. All questions asked in this survey with exact wording, along with full results and cross tabulations can be found here.

[Polybius]

11. Because it's Ohio, I believe it

They have been trending Right since 2012. Trump won there by more than expected in 2020, and there's no way that a Trump backed election denier like JD Vance should have won in 2022, but he did.

BTW, you have a typo. You said "poll with 43 registered voters", but it's 438.

[Demsrule86]

13. so I had a typo ...it is still too small. I live in Ohio I am familiar with these sort of polls...it

is a shitty poll. You don't have to believe me. Doom and gloom dampens the vote which is the purpose of this poll.

[Polybius]

17. I didn't mean anything bad by pointing it out, I love your posts even though we sometimes disagree

I just wanted to let you know. As for doom and gloom, I report good news polls as well. I think polls are fun topics of discussion.

[yankee87]

20. Biased polling

Yet in Pennsylvania, just east of Ohio, went to a Democrat landslide. With Prop 1 and 2, I have hope for Ohio.

[inwiththenew]

12. If Trump wins Ohio by 8% again like he did in 16 and 20 then Brown is likely done for

Unless you believe that enough people will vote for both Trump and Brown.

[Demsrule86]

14. Brown is an incumbent Senator and is still very popular. We shall see.

[DemocratInPa]

15. I am already accepting that we will lose the Senate..

Brown will lose, we will lose Manchin seat, and I am not counting on us keeping Tester or Sinema seats tbh.

I do think we will get Congress back though.

My scare is we are over estimating how Gen Z will show up..We still got a lot of time left, but if you go to Gen Z for change on Twitter, there leader is pretty much blasting Dems for their ignoring Climate Change. She even interrupted a Jean-Pierre briefing over it.

[Alhena]

18. Emerson's PA poll has Trump leading by 9, which can't be right

[DemocratInPa]

19. Living in WPA..

There are Trump signs everywhere...

PA will be battle in 2024 no doubt.

[redqueen]

21. 4.5% MOE (not even MOE, that dreadful interval thing)

In an opt in poll .. sraight into the bin