Catalist: Analysis of decline in Democratic support by Black voters

[brooklynite]

Black voters are the most consistently Democratic-leaning constituency in the electorate by race. In 2022, they continued to play a critical role in Democratic coalitions, but our estimates suggest a decrease in vote share and erosion of Democratic support nationally, especially among younger Black voters but also among Black men, suburban and rural Black voters, and Black voters without four-year college degrees. However, in highly contested states, particularly those with competitive statewide races, Black vote share and support remained fairly stable compared to 2018 and President Biden’s 2020 coalition respectively.

Data report

Before you complain about "corporate media polls", understand that Catalist is a well-respected pro-Democratic data group which my political organizations have worked with for years.

[justaprogressive]

1. Tom Tomorrow calls us

the "Incrementalist Party" If we're going to attract the young and disenfranchised we are going to have to
institute a large number of bold changes in our society...

I can only hope we accomplish this.

[Celerity]

2. White women, Gen X, and Latinos are all major issues in terms of fall-offs from voting Dem now versus historical rates.

No way to sugar coat or deny this.

If white women and Gen X vote as solidly Rethug as they did in 2022 (and 2020 for white women), and if Latinos keep drifting to the right, 2024 is that much more difficult.

We black woman can but do so much, as our percentage of the population is going down.

Black women voted D in similar %'s , but white women & Gen X slid significantly to the RW in 2022, compared to previous elections. as did Hispanics of both genders (in both 2020 and 2022 compared to 2018).

White women went from +2 Dem in 2018 to +8 Rethug in 2020 and then to +11 Rethug in 2022.

It was 61 per cent of white men for Trump in 2020

and 55 percent of white women went Trump in 2020

Gen X overall voted solidly Rethug in 2022, with the 40 to 49 yo cohort especially sliding hard to the RW compared to previous elections

POTUS only in 2020

Age cohorts in 2022

notice 2 things:

1, my (I was 26yo then) Zillennial group (in this poll, we are talking the youngest 4 years and 2 months of Millennials and a 'first 10 months of 1997-born' sliver of the very oldest of Gen Zers) voted Dem at a higher rate than the rest of Gen Zers (ages 18 to 24 years old on election day, so most all of Gen Z who could vote then),

and then, more significantly,

2, look at the pretty significant sliding to the Rethugs by the Gen Xers. Gen X voted Rethug in toto by a pretty healthy margin, which worries me for 2024

2020

[Sympthsical]

5. And AAPI are the fastest growing demographic in the nation

This goes a bit under the radar, but it's true (and Californians especially probably could have told people this).

https://www.axios.com/2023/06/29/fastest-growing-demographics



They're a fairly reliably Democratic voting bloc at the moment. However, one thing I've observed (anecdotal, so keep that in mind) is that they're not hard identified by party. They aren't as loyal to party as, say, Black voters are to Democrats. If they sense they're not being served, they will turn and fast on a politician.

When the Bay Area started getting a little bit on the loopy side of policy, that bloc got the politicians in order fast. Chesa Boudin got bounced, they tore apart the SF school district, London Breed is out there talking like she's half right of center, and Pamela Price is already about to have shit incoming after being elected not too long ago.

They don't like that the racism against them largely gets ignored by us, because it doesn't serve a narrative of all racist assholes being white. They really, really don't like being called "white-adjacent". They don't like education systems making things harder for their kids. They're not fans of undocumented immigration, because so many of them came here via the legal path. They're not real big fans of the crime and social disorder that's been occurring in the cities they and their families have been settling in over the last fifty years.

There are a lot of issues there that astute Republicans could crowbar.

I think we've been ignoring them and taking them for granted. And like the shift we're seeing with Latinos, casting the parties in stark racial terms is slowly losing its effectiveness over time. Political consultants might, gasp, have to come up with policies people like instead of demagoguing identity to win votes in the near future.

What a world that could be.

[Keepthesoulalive]

3. What do you propose we do

If you have any way to fight propaganda and deliberate ignorance I will add it to my bag of tricks.
Black people are not the problem in America. Someone on this thread did the math and we see where the problem is.

[brooklynite]

4. The key is to reach out to them as voters, not "BLACK" voters...

They're not all driven by police violence or discrimination concerns. They have opinions on the cost of living, health care, regulation of businesses, abortion (not necessarily as pro-choice as Democratic base voters) etc.

[Keepthesoulalive]

7. The problem is not black voters

If every black person who was eligible to vote , voted for a democrat it would not change a general election . The problem is with the dominate culture . Why won’t white people vote for what’s best for this country instead of their fears and prejudices ? For example illegal immigration is destroying this country and black people are responsible for crime and it always comes from Fox News propaganda channel around election time. They buy it and parrot it to anyone who will listen. Perhaps the things you listed for black people should resonate with the majority of the white population.

[Elessar Zappa]

9. Democrats DO focus on those issues.

I hear Democrats talking all the time about the economy, inflation, healthcare and other “kitchen table” issues. What more can we do?

Edit: Also black people are more pro-choice than white people, 68% support legal abortion in some or all cases vs 59% of whites. Here’s the link: https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/fact-sheet/public-opinion-on-abortion/

[treestar]

6. I recall the now banned poster warning us there would be no enthusiastic

support from black women if the declared to be female VP candidate Biden picked were not of color.

So that wasn't good enough?

Did the poll ask why?

Black men's increase is support for TFG was interesting. Does it mean they now identify with white men more than before? That would indicate a perception of less inequality.

[Elessar Zappa]

8. I put no blame on black people.

They still support democrats in overwhelming numbers even if those numbers have gone down a tad. White people, especially white men, support the enemy in extremely large numbers. They’re the reason why the Republican Party is still competitive.

[Keepthesoulalive]

10. Someone gets it

Thank you. Everyone should want healthcare, good schools , an educated voting populace, housing and to live without fear. But some folks want to look down on others and rule.