The latest from Ukraine: There is no point in denying it.

[Tomconroy]

Ukraine's southern offensive in the Robotyne Verbove area has failed, at least for now. There hasn't been significant progress in over a month and Ukraine has not been able to seize the hills south of Robotyne which would come close to dominating the key city of Tokmak. Ukraine seems to be rotating troops in the area. I'm not sure if Ukraine has run low on ammunition or troops or both. It does seem that they will need a change in tactics if it is even possible to make progress in this sector.

OTOH Ukraine has achieved a significant victory by driving a lot of the Russian fleet out of Sevastopol and the adjacent Black Sea. For now grain is being transported freely from Odessa and surrounding ports.
Additionally, Ukraine made a very good first use of the very late arriving ATACMs systems by destroying or damaging some 20 Russian helicopters parked at southern military bases. Good hunting.

Link to tweet

It is worth while keeping an eye on the left bank of the Dnipro River. It seems that a second bridge head has been seized in the area to the south of Kherson City and troops may be gathering for something more significant:

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

I'll try to write a bit about russias so far failed attempt to seize the initiative in Eastern Ukraine at some point later in the week.

[gab13by13]

1. Thank you for your updates,

I only click on your posts about Ukraine.

[uponit7771]

2. No credible person claimed Verbose should be taken in a month

[Irish_Dem]

3. And now the US attention is elsewhere.

Quite coincidentally, I am sure.

[Starfury]

4. Were you really expecting Ukraine to just roll through extensive minefields and trench networks?

And all the while, weathering continuous Russian counterattacks across the front and doing what they can to keep their soldiers alive? Just look at Russian losses this week alone. Thousands of dead soldiers and hundreds of destroyed pieces of equipment (tanks, personnel carriers, artillery, etc.) Is that further evidence of Ukrainian "failure?" Are those the tactics you feel Ukraine should adopt?

[Tomconroy]

5. I am not a military professional. I have no views

On what tactics Ukraine should adopt.
I find your comment bizarre.

[Starfury]

6. No kidding.

You're the one who suggested Ukraine should change tactics. Have you forgotten your OP already?

This conflict doesn't need any more armchair generals.

[leftstreet]

8. Do you have a link to your "thousands of dead soldiers" claim?

[Elessar Zappa]

10. There were several posts here last week confirming that a few thousand Russian troops were killed.

The defense ministry of Ukraine also posted it on their Twitter. The total amount of Russian casualties for the entire war is near 300,000.

[WarGamer]

12. The Russians launched a major counter attack recently and have suffered major losses...

Total meat grinder.

I don't believe what Ukraine claims re: losses... but the OSINT crowd has confirmed that the losses are high... for both sides in the last week or two.

[Starfury]

18. From the UK MoD:

Link to tweet

[LetMyPeopleVote]

9. Russia is still suffering massive losses

Link to tweet

[WarGamer]

13. I wouldn't believe anything coming from Ukraine or Russian Gov't sources....

There are better estimates out there.

[WarGamer]

11. Not surprising for anyone who has been paying attention.

The problem is... too many people follow social media accounts with Ukrainian flag emojis, those who call Russians "orcs" and all they do is spin news from the war to pump up international support.

That's nice and all but it's propaganda.

In reality, there is no real change on the battlefield. None was really every expected... look back at General Milleys quotes from earlier this year...

The only thing happening on the battlefield is death. It's a WW1 style stalemate. The difference is, with modern weapons, soldiers from both sides can't even venture out in the open without a $400 drone with a hand grenade falling on top of them.

Russia has built extensive defensive works and has the motivation to outlast the Ukrainians and their Western allies.

War is terrible. I wish they could have ironed all this out peacefully in 2022...

[Skwishy]

14. And now that North Korean murderer is helping Russia

It’s an axis of evil

[scipan]

15. Thank you for the update. What about the

idea that this is a war of attrition, rather than land taking.

I believe, in that scenario, that it will seem like a stalemate until Russia suddenly collapses due to them running out of arms.

[Tomconroy]

16. Ukraine needs more and better weapons

I think. It is doing well to destroy Russian logistics with what it has but it needs more, and the weapons are slow to come. In particular it needs more artillery ammunition, but, for a variety of reasons, the West was unprepared for a real land war in Europe.
Russia seems to have an endless supply of mobiks but destroying Russian logistics is probably the way Ukraine will win the war. Logistics in this case means rr bridges and locomotives.

[scipan]

17. Thanks. It would have been so good if Ukraine

Had cut off the rr to Crimea. But I think they are within striking distance now especially with the new longer range equipment.

I definitely could be wrong. Can't seem to get into military stuff although I try.

I look forward to your updates.