Fact: Nikki Haley, not Trump, will be the Republican candidate for president next year.

[Cyrano]

I don't have a crystal ball. I don't have ESP. And I don't have any secret/insider info. Nonetheless, Nikki Haley will be the Republican presidential candidate on next November's ballot. Here's why:

Trump's dementia is becoming more apparent with his non-sequitur rants in front of any news camera, and also at his rallies that have dwindling attendance. While many MAGAs would follow him to the grave, others are heading for the Exit. And what the mainstream media never mentions is that he's probably the most hated figure in the non-MAGA part of the Republican Party. They really want him to just go the fuck away, but would never say so out loud.

Regarding the other Republican candidates, most of them are at two to three percent in the polls and will be ignored. How about Ron DeSantis? He has the charisma of a yak, and you need a bit more than that to get nominated. Charles Manson could beat him in the upcoming campaign.

Which leaves us with Nikki Haley. Ninety nine percent of the country doesn't have a clue about her policies, her beliefs, or what she would do if she were to end up in the Oval Office. Nonetheless, as Trump's spell begins to fade, hers increases. She's got the charisma, the smarts and the "Look" to become the candidate.

Trump may win/steal one or more of the upcoming 2024 primaries, but it won't matter. He's over. Nikki Haley will win the nomination for the Republican candidate for the presidency.

(Whether or not she can beat Joe Biden is a question for a different Orignal Post.)

[JT45242]

1. No way a brown skinned woman wins the GOP nomination

The racists won't allow her or vivek to win

[Silent Type]

13. Thought that when she ran for SC Gubnor.

[Cyrano]

14. Exactly.

[Hekate]

22. Nikki Haley looks very "white," chiseled features and all. Vivek is very dark by contrast

I think many Americans will find her acceptable in that regard. Also — she’s the only one who sounds remotely intelligent on stage, in my opinion. Vivek sounds like someone who’s running on a dare from his tech-bros — unserious.

India is a vast subcontinent, with great variation among its people in features and color. The first Asian-Indian I ever met was in a community college class. He had a profile like an Aztec carving and was the blackest person I’d met to that point, like charcoal (I grew up with Asians and Polynesians) .

When I was at university I met many more Indians — professors, students, co-workers. I never met anyone who looked like either Nikki or my freshman classmate — but as I said, India is a vast place.

[LudwigPastorius]

56. "she's the only one who sounds remotely intelligent on stage"

You say that like the appearance of intelligence is a quality most MAGAt voters seek in their candidate.

[wnylib]

68. I get your point, but she would represent the non MAGAs

and would be an effort to win over Independents.

I think that one of her biggest problems in a general election would be her strong anti abortion position. Some might like the idea of a woman candidate, but not when they know her views on abortion, which Dems will be happy to publicize.

[GoCubsGo]

23. Yep, even one who tries to pass herself off as a white woman.

Tim Scott doesn't stand a chance, either.

[homegirl]

32. You called it...

I think the big surprise will be Chris Christie, as the GOP Sacrificial Lamb for 2024. The GOP does not have a viable POTUS candidate for 2024-so throw Christie out there and eliminate him from the political scene forever!

[Jose Garcia]

40. Christie is totally out of step with today's GOP

[NJCher]

2. trump is going to fall flat on his face

this scenario is as logical as any. Because that is going to happen.

[lame54]

5. When? For God's sake, WHEN?

[John1956PA]

8. I had thought that Christie would be the pivot-to candidate.

Christie is intelligent in lots of ways, but he apparently turns off many people, even within the GOP.

[SCantiGOP]

11. Last national poll I saw

Had Christie in low single digits among Republicans. I don’t see that changing.
There is no Republican Party anymore, the MAGA group is in control.

[Cyrano]

16. In today's Republican Party, Christie might as well be a Communist transvestite.

His Republican Party disappeared a long time ago. But, the truth about Republicans is that, even decades before Trump came along, they hated Commies, LGBQT's, and everyone who wasn't a white, "Christian," nationalist bigot. Hatred of "The Other" has always been their trademark.

[madinmaryland]

28. He accepted Obama's support after Hurricane Sandy. That killed any chance as a

Republican nominee. Bridgegate was a positive compared to welcoming and thanking Obama.

[Quixote1818]

65. He falls flat on his face everyday. They don't care. nt

[Ocelot II]

3. I think TFG will be either dead or in prison before the election,

but maybe not before the primaries. What happens if he strokes out the week before the election? If he is out of the running in time for someone else to be the nominee, I'm not sure it will be Haley; she's a brown woman and MAGAts don't seem to care much for brown women. Or women of any color, for that matter. My money is on another white guy, just not Ron DeSantis.

[Attilatheblond]

37. I don't think a lot of GOP voters pay much attention to notice her ethnic heritage.

The woman thing might be more of an issue for many of them. That said, I agree with the OP, and think she will likely be the GOP nominee. She is sane, but hums along with the chorus. She appears sorta competent and does have a better grasp of issues than any of the other clowns but Christy, who is just too disliked.

Do I like her politics? NO. But I don't thing GOP voters bother worrying about that sort of thing. They want a winner and TFG is a LOSER. They also might get a smug pleasure out of being open minded enough to feel good about voting for a woman, you know, to own the libs and all.

[bluestarone]

60. I still believe at some point in time,

Pence will come back into play here. (White and very RELIGIOUS)

[Ocelot II]

61. I don't think so; he shat in the MAGA nest by refusing to stop the elector certification

and he will never be forgiven. But maybe they'll draft MAGA Mike Johnson.



Although I'm betting he has enough skeletons in his closet to fill a cemetery.

[bluestarone]

64. Skeletons a many for sure!

A real creep for sure. (whole family)

[hlthe2b]

4. I think that is possible. The ramifications are not really clear, though becase polling thus far

has shown little desire by Trump or DeSantis supporters (especially the former) to move her way. Will hard-core Trump MAGATs really get excited to show up for an East Indian-heritage (child of Punjabi Sikh immigrant parents) FEMALE candidate--who has not shown herself to be unwilling to criticize "dear leader?" The never-Trumpers likely would, but the rest of the base?

I would certainly be less appalled to see her prevail in the R primary than a Ramaswamy or DeSantis or obviously Trump, but the dynamics of a head-to-head with Biden would be dramatically different UNLESS the MAGATs just decide to stay home and sit this one out.

[Walleye]

6. I don't know, I think Joe could beat her though

Aside from the fact that he is so much smarter, more competent, more experienced. She has the disadvantage of being a woman. That glass ceiling is harder to break than one would think

[lees1975]

66. Easily.

If she's the nominee, he wins 40 states.

[Walleye]

69. That's the spirit !!

[PJMcK]

7. I'm betting on Christie

But I do agree it won’t be Trump.

[SCantiGOP]

9. Trump has already secured the nomination

In addition to the polls, they have changed the rules in many of his strongest states to go from proportional distribution of delegates to winner take all.
Wish this weren’t the case; I think we would be better of with anyone but Trump on the ballot.

[TwilightZone]

10. "Trump's dementia is becoming more apparent " - not really

He's been bleating out a stream of incomprehensible babble since he announced he was running in 2015. This is nothing new, and I'm not sure why people keep insisting that it's going to be his downfall. He's been a mess since day one.

Plus, it doesn't matter. If 30,000 lies during his administration and eight years of constant incoherent babble haven't swayed people by now, a couple more dumb gaffes aren't going to. His supporters love him because he acts just like them -- like a belligerent moron. They couldn't care less what he actually says.

"others are heading for the Exit"

Wishful thinking. There is very little evidence that his popularity is waning anywhere near enough for someone else to catch up. He's still in complete control of the party, as evidenced by the Speaker fiasco. Everyone else is fighting for second --- or 2028.

[SCantiGOP]

41. I don't know if he's worse now

In reference to his speeches. It may just be that he used to use notes, and that rarely happens now so he can just take off into crazy land.

[TwilightZone]

45. He uses a teleprompter most of the time.

He just goes off script - and that's when he goes off the rails.

He had one in Sioux City and still got the name wrong.



Picture caption/credit:
Former President and current Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally in Sioux City, Iowa, Oct. 29, 2023.
Scott Morgan/Reuters

[marble falls]

12. Correction: She will be Dark Horse, Smokey Room at the Convention, Mitt Romney's VP choice.

[getagrip_already]

38. Mitt wont be allowed in....

Bannon and cat turd will be guarding the door.

They won't let Haley anywhere near the nomination either.

It will be someone like Johnson if it isn't tiny. But it will be tiny. And his vp will be the one to watch.

[JohnSJ]

15. If Trump wins their primaries, he is their nominee

There primaries are all or nothing, unlike Democratic which are proportional

[thucythucy]

17. If that happens and Trump is still alive

he will

a) say the nomination was rigged and he's the real candidate;

b) file a slew of lawsuits in an attempt to derail her campaign and

c) run as third party candidate while claiming to be the true GOP candidate.

Millions will vote for him, dooming any other GOP candidate.

[Tickle]

18. November DeSantis and Newsom

will be debating or talking on Hannity. If that doesn't bring DeSantis up in polls, then you are 100% correct.

[Irish_Dem]

19. Nikki has charisma?

I don't necessarily agree with your prediction, but don't get carried away.
She is boring.

[SCantiGOP]

43. I don't know how smart she is

But she is politically very savvy.
I live in the middle of SC politics, and I watched her out-maneuver all of the good ole boys to get the nomination, and she wasn’t even a member of their club.
But I don’t expect her to be that successful on the big stage of national politics.

[Irish_Dem]

49. You can be the most superb state politician but not make it in national politics.

State political skills don't necessary translate to the national scene.
Running for POTUS is an entirely new game.

But it sounds like people are agreeing she may be a front GOP runner.
We shall see.

Keep in mind she is going to have to deal with Trump threats and harassment.
And those of his flying monkeys.

[SCantiGOP]

50. Do t think she is running for VP

But at 51 years old, she may be conceding this race and all of her actions may be looking towards 2028.

[Irish_Dem]

52. I thought she was running for Trump's VP until she started trashing him.

[canetoad]

20. I think you may be correct

Maybe at long last the US is breaking out from the toxic thrall that tfg exerts. I still cannot believe that one man alone, can come close to bringing down a great nation from within.

[Aristus]

21. I respectfully disagree.

If Trump died tomorrow, the GOP would stick a rod of rebar up his dead ass, prop him up in front of cameras, and run recordings of his brain-dead blather 24/7 all campaign season long. They will never, ever abandon him. 'Trump IS President' is part of their identity now, and people have killed for having their self-identity challenged.

The GOP is not going to nominate a brown-skinned, non-Caucasian woman for the Presidency. If they think she is even the slightest bit useful, they will give her the VP slot. But they're not going to nominate a woman. Hell AND high water will come first...

[madinmaryland]

31. Coke Junior will take over the run, though ivanka might have something to say about that. nt

[LudwigPastorius]

57. That is not the craziest scenario out there.

MAGAts, after all, are personality cultists on par with North Koreans, who enthusiastically support patrilineal continuity.

[phylny]

24. I'm most concerned about Glenn Youngkin.

Trump, but younger and more fit.

[Xavier Breath]

25. His cult believe he is currently the rightful president

having been robbed of the office. They are the majority of the Republican party, and I can't believe that majority would pass up the opportunity to reinstall him to the office. And in the process elect a brown-skinned woman, no less? Unless he is dead or incapacitated there is no way anyone but he is the nominee.

[Kennah]

26. No way the GOOP nominee ain't Trump

[Maru Kitteh]

27. Ha!

No

[brewens]

29. I posted this yesterday. Trump would be at high risk for liver disease because of diet and COVID.

That can contribute to dementia. I have a buddy that is 63 and may need a transplant eventually because of a horrible diet most of his life. Not unlike Trump's at all. He's already lost a lot of weight eating healthy for a change. Not a chance Trump would.

I think we know Trump's emergency trip to Walter Reed was because he had some mini strokes, or they thought he may have. That's the only time we ever saw him leave the White House out of his Trump costume. He was scared enough not to give a shit. That's the only way that would have happened. No jacket and his shirt unbuttoned if I remember right. He was dumb enough to give it away by denying mini strokes before anyone else had even speculated that may have been the emergency! LOL

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100218414006

[wishstar]

70. The emergency trip was for a colonoscopy according to Stephanie Grisham

all news sources I have seen have reported the trip as being for a colonoscopy. He looked like shit probably because the prep wiped him out.

https://www.cnn.com/videos/media/2021/09/28/donald-trump-walter-reed-stephanie-grisham-book-lead-vpx.cnn

"Former President Donald Trump's secret visit to Walter Reed in 2019 appeared to be for a routine colonoscopy, according to Stephanie Grisham, Trump's former press secretary and first lady Melania Trump's chief of staff. "

[brewens]

71. That's the best story they could come up with? Why did he get the cognative test he bragged about passing? That was

after my colonoscopy. The prep was all over the counter by then. Not fun but nowhere near as gross as before.

That was an emergency, otherwise they wouldn't be making up a story after the fact.

[dchill]

30. I'll say one thing - Nikki Haley...

...has a lying liar capacity that's right up there with the worst of them. That do seem to be a basic requirement.

[3catwoman3]

33. Desantis - the charisma of a yak??

More like the charisma of a cow pie (or would that be a yak pie?).

[AkFemDem]

34. We better fucking hope not

[AkFemDem]

35. I shared here the other day this disquieting thing

Happened at a breast cancer awareness fundraiser I attended recently. Sitting at a table of avowed progressives but personally knowing several of the women I know they range from very liberal to barely liberal, IYKWIM, and somehow this whole weird convo starts about DeSantis of all people and how Biden is going to trounce Trump and then what if it’s DeSantis and everyone agrees he’s dead Jim. But then someone cautiously suggests if it’s Nikki Haley she is not sure what she’ll do and suddenly everyone; all of these really kind and smart progressive women, start gushing about how great Haley is and how they’d vote for her. I was freaking floored.

[JanMichael]

58. That is horrifying and sickening.

The look on my face would have been like something out of a horror movie.

[Voltaire2]

36. If Trump is breathing he is running. nt.

[peggysue2]

39. I disagree

The Republican primaries are all but over and Trump's the nominee, dementia and all. His die-hard supporters don't care; Donald Trump is their choice, their only choice. They'll go down with the ship if need be, then resurface to make everyone's life a misery.

Haley may be surging from her original numbers but there is a yawning chasm between her position and Agent Orange. Winner take all primaries give Trump a clear advantage to snatch the nomination. It's been all set up for him. If he loses the nomination, it'll because he shot himself in the head.

I don't see that happening.

Voters may claim now that they'd rather eat glass than see a rematch between Biden and Trump. Well, get ready for the nightmare or rethink the proposition, an election that is a stark choice:

American Democracy vs A Wanna-Be Despot and His Pack of Hyenas.

I know how I'm voting.

[tinrobot]

42. If anyone else is nominated, Trump will run a revenge campaign as an independant

And he'll run it from jail, if needed.

It will peel off just enough votes to spoil any GOP candidate.

[former9thward]

47. It will not work that way.

Most states have so-called "sore loser" laws. Which means if you run for a office in the primaries you can't run for that same office in the general election as an independent.

[milestogo]

44. A woman who doesn't support the right of women to choose.

What a shame it would be for her to be elected president.

[underpants]

46. Biden -Harris vs Trump -?

[Jose Garcia]

48. The only way Trump loses if he has serious medical issues

[wiggs]

51. May be correct, with one caveat: Trump will drop out and endorse her. nt

[Mad_Machine76]

53. It would really be insulting

If Republicans won with a woman candidate when the fact that HRC was smeared and rejected by the electorate even though she was leagues more intelligent and competent than Haley and/or the entire Republican Party rolled together.

[nevergiveup]

54. Watch the Virginia elections results here in a few days.

If the Republicans do really well then Glenn Youngkin will be the Republican presidential candidate and you can bet the ranch on it. From what I have read there are big Conservative donors just waiting to dump Trump and go all in with Younkin.

[edisdead]

55. That actually is not a fact

At all.

[pinkstarburst]

59. I suspect you are right, and it makes me nervous

I think Trump is fading fast. He's got his legal troubles and every time he talks, he sounds more wildly in the throes of increasing dementia. It's sad to watch and I think even if the most hardened of the base stick with him, most republicans want to WIN and will recognize that they need someone independents will vote for.

The question is... in a Nikki Haley vs Joe Biden matchup, how does that shake out? Haley will be up against the same sexism Hillary faced (and that Kamala Harris would face, were she to run), plus she's a woman of color, so there's racism to contend with too. That will hurt her. But plenty of voters are displeased with the idea of an 86 year old president and Nikki Haley is a young, fresh face. Of all the republican candidates, she comes off as the least crazy. That could definitely sway some independents who are concerned about age, much as I hate to say it. I guess it comes down to, are you more sexist/racist or against having an 86 year old president, or do you just stay home on election day? I'll be holding my breath until the results are in. Ugh. I think Trump is the easier candidate to beat.

[Cyrano]

67. That's some really thoughtful reasoning, pinkstarburst.

[Quixote1818]

62. If it was anyone other than Trump I would agree. However, his cult members would drink Kool-Aid for him.

Nothing will stop his cult even if he is in jail or on his death bed.

[ratchiweenie]

63. I hope not because she seems both fairly smart and very politically savvy.