Here's why Trump is ahead of Joe Biden in the polls.

[Cyrano]

Because Trump voters can't grasp that they're sticking their necks in a noose and they'll back "Dear Leader" forever.

And we Democrats are busy fighting each other.

Republican politicians stick by him because they're afraid of losing their jobs if they oppose him.

Republican Corporations and investors are only interested in the tax breaks he'll deliver.

Average Republican Americans who vote for him are either uninformed, brainwashed, or just plain brain dead.

So Trump's voters are living in either fear, greed, or some variation of "The Matrix."

And we Democrats have decided to fuck ourselves and our freedoms by not standing together against the Trumpism threat.

We can't convince or change the human self-destructiveness and chaos that is the Republican Party. But we can decide to drop our differences and come together to defeat the threat to democracy presented by our Domestic Enemies.

So here's reality as stated by Benjamin Franklin: "We must all hang together, or, most assuredly, we shall all hang separately."

If we win the presidency, the House and the Senate next year, we'll be safe for a while. After all, American fascists aren't going away and we'll have to fight them again. And again. We must be as dedicated to our freedoms as they are to destroying them.

If we lose, our freedoms are gone, our Constitution will be a meaningless piece of paper, and America will be over.

So fuck what the polls say. We Democrats must all unite and slay this deadly dragon.

[onecaliberal]

1. The polls are reicht wing fantasy. It's pure propaganda. Bullshit mountain.

[Cyrano]

3. Nonetheless, propaganda must be fought. Constantly.

[hadEnuf]

49. There is and has been a propaganda war going on for years.

And unfortunately we have been losing. Badly.

We all like to see the facts speak for themselves and people make their own informed decisions, but that’s not really how it is anymore. People need to be told. Constantly and relentlessly.

We need our own Fox News and radio media that tells the truth in the same way they spread their lies and hate.

[agingdem]

4. exactly...

did we learn nothing from the 2022 midterms...you know, the "omg Dems are so screwed" RED WAVE polls?..

we're a year away...the sky is not falling...fuck the polls!!!

[orangecrush]

20. Oligarchy psyops

Hard at work

[former9thward]

29. Polls did not say it would be a red wave.

They said it would be close and it was. Republicans drew more votes than Democrats in the House elections by about 4% which is why the House flipped.

[PortTack]

36. The Gerrymandering of the NY maps played a big role. AOC has said had it not been for that, the Dems

Would have held the house

[former9thward]

38. Well the issue I was replying to was polls.

Polls were accurate in 2022.

[MadameButterfly]

92. lots of polls are panned the night of the election

then after the votes are all counted days/weeks later (absentee, vote by mail, etc.) they turn out to be accurate. Hillary was supposed to win by 3% (polls May thru Nov.). She did. Problem was the Electoral College.

I know it's far out, but usually when polls are bad a year ahead it's because of particular events, economy, and either conditions change or a rip-roaring orator like Obama runs a brilliant campaign.

Conditions have been pretty good for Biden (until the war in Israel), bad for Trump, and speaking isn't Biden's forte. So I think we need to take the polls seriously.

Sorry to be a downer.

[lees1975]

95. RCP and 538 both had a written narrative analysis

one week before the mid-terms that didn't use the term "red wave," but through terms like "the odds are" and "if this develops that could develop" and "if we see this happen and then that happens," made it clear that their best guess was a gain of 25 seats in the house for the GOP and 75% odds the GOP would also get the Senate majority. I thought that was a little off, since the senate majority came down to Fetterman, and he had a comfortable lead, and won by 3 points over the margin of error of the polls.

And didn't 538 admit, after the fact, that part of the reason they were off was that there had been some polls inserted into the composite that didn't have and substantiation, and may have been "fake" polls? Or was that BTRTN?

The NYT may be reacting to getting predictions on several house seats in New York wrong.

[FHRRK]

104. MSM used favorable polls for Repukes

To push the narrative of a Red Wave.

There was a reason that Fox News and Repub Reps were so disheartened. And Steve Kornaki, they pushed a narrative and failed.

[Zeitghost]

93. You are confusing the polls with the narrative surrounding them

The 2020 mid term polls were pretty accurate and we lost by 3%.

[NCjack]

34. I don't trust any poll done by telephone. Since I got my first iPhone about 10 years ago,

I have not patricipated in any poll -- because I'm able to use the iPhone's call screeners -- the callers never get to talk to me. All the MAGAts that I know are not smart enough to set the screening tools. I think that DEMs (smart enough to use smart phones) are under-represented in the polling sample and MAGAts (not smart enough to use smart phones) are over-represented.

Remember when "President Dewey" was declared the victor over President Truman by the Chicago Daily the morning after the election? That huge mistake was based on telephone polling. Poor DEMs could not afford land line telephones, but most GOP households could. Self-deluded pollsters did not see the bias in their polling sample.

I will believe a poll in which the pollster shows me that all demographic groups are correctly represented from in a sample of likely voters. And, the pollster makes face-to-face contacts and speaks to randomly selected persons -- no telephone or telephone data base is employed to form the sample. That would involve a huge amount of work to do a proper job, and no publisher would pay the costs for such a result.

As onecliberal sums it up: just bullshit polls to stir up DEMs while collecting $bucks from those who will publish them.

When these bullshit polls are thrown at DEMs on TV shows, the DEMs must scream back BULLSHIT and demand to know the details of the polling. Was a telephone used? Was the sample respresentive of the likely voters?

[former9thward]

39. Why do Democratic campaigns pay for polls?

If they are all BS? Believe me no one is going face to face as you would like.

[DemocraticPatriot]

66. And how many of those 'campaign polls' are published by the MSM bedwetters ?

Practically none, because they are considered 'secret' by the campaigns who commission them, and held in confidence...

[former9thward]

96. The same organizations do them.

And the campaign polls are not going door to door.

[ExWhoDoesntCare]

94. Oh FFS

Pollsters don't just ring a number and hope for an answer anymore. They're making use of email, voicemail and text messaging to contact people who don't answer unknown numbers--just like the rest of us.

Really!

I took part in a poll after one of the big ones contacted me for it via text message.

The response rates are about the same as they were back in the cold call eras.

[iluvtennis]

41. +++ agree. I'll start paying attention to this polling BS (..maybe..) when general election starts next summer. n/t

[azureblue]

75. it's how the polls are conducted

1 - by landlines, which younger voters don't have
2 - By cold cell phone calls, which most people ignore.
3 - By on line polls, which about everybody knows are used for data harvesting. So smart people (Democrats) ignore them, but Repub brigade them, skewing red.
4 - By media polling from sites that younger voters don't go to.

All the polling methods are directed at older voters - the pollsters have no clue about how the reach younger voters. Pollsters are dinosaurs.

Of the younger voters I know, they are all fed up with the mess the GOP made - yep they see who is causing it - the low wages, the cost of housing, abortion, and the push for a fake Christian theocracy. They see how the GOPers are acting like a bunch of total crazies, and letting things go into the crapper while the GOP plays their little games. They know the rich have all the money, too. Their philosophies are altruistic - helping others, the environment, wage peace, not war. And they are done with out of touch old people running things, so they are going to vote them out. They talk among themselves and generally are very skeptical of what some media person says. IOW they are about immune to propaganda, and yes, they can spot propaganda a mile away.

Early voting has proven this - younger voters are showing up and not voting GOP.
And to add, when Taylor Swift says to get out and vote, her Swifties will show up at the polls. And she has a LOT of followers.

So "the polls" are all crap.

[wnylib]

79. Overconfidence and complacency are risky.

I don't believe the polls that give Trump a significant lead. But I do believe that the race is competitive. It shouldn't be, given all that Biden has accomplished. But that's where we are. We need to focus on spreading the word about how Biden has benefited the American people vs how Trump hurt us and would do worse.

I suspect that Trump will not make it to the election in 2024 because of either his legal problems or his health. That still does not give us a guarantee of winning in 2024. The establishment Republicans are trying to take back the party from MAGAs. I have not forgotten how slimy they are in elections, just as skilled with twisting facts and images as Trump is.

So we need to be Biden's spokespersons everywhere we go, pointing out what he has accomplished. Make a list of the Biden accomplishments for ourselves and promote them.

[PBateman70]

2. I hope you're wrong

Good points. Hope you're wrong about the Dems. Was it Nancy Pelosi who said that hetting Democrats together is like trying to herd cats? That may be a widely attributed quote, lol.

[bif]

10. I think that might have been from Will Rogers

[PBateman70]

23. Mayhap so

Your guess is as good as mine 😄

[Axelrods_Typewriter]

30. That one wasn't from him, but Will Rogers had a few quotes about the Dems

It seems like he saw the same thing 100 years ago

- I am not a member of any organized party - I am a Democrat.
- We can make this thing into a Party, instead of a Memory.
- You've got to be optimist to be a Democrat, and you've got to be a humorist to stay one.

It should be mentioned he was a lifelong Democrat but very carefully avoided partisanship.

[OKIsItJustMe]

28. Al Sharpton?

https://www.azquotes.com/quote/1343615

[GiqueCee]

46. I think that very appropriate quote...

... has been around for as long as there have been cats. And Democrats. Republicans are easy to herd because Follow Der Leader is a game they know well, and it saves them from having to think for themselves, a trait that is frowned upon in conservative circles.

[Bev54]

5. One third of those polled did not vote in the last election, so they are not likely voters.

Jennifer Rubin WaPo.

[edhopper]

6. But the polls show

Trump has support among swing voters. Way beyond his base. I don't get how anybody but the die hard Trumpers still will vote for this criminal.

[MyNameIsJonas]

59. The polls show Trump is pulling in about the same support he won in 2020.

The difference is that Biden's support hasn't fully coalesced around him like Trump's. Trump only wins with 47-49% of the vote if Biden loses support to third parties. Just as it was in 2016 and 2020, the election will be decided by whether Biden can keep the third party vote low.

[edhopper]

61. Okay

So having four trials and 91 criminal indictments has lost him zero support.
The voters are idiots.

[MyNameIsJonas]

65. I mean, these people voted for him in 2020 despite everything he did.

Why would they stop now?

[agingdem]

83. but his voters have not changed in numbers..

his numbers are stagnant...his brain-dead base will vote for him regardless but his base has not grown...his indictments, his verbal vomit is having a negative impact with mainstream Republicans (if there's still such a thing)...they're turned off by the chaos, the name-calling...good

[azureblue]

76. 3rd parties

will only siphon votes from the GOP. Their platform is GOP Lite, and with now plans or solutions that make any sense.

[Charging Triceratops]

7. I'll say it forever

ALL polls are lies. They are not meant to gauge opinion; they are meant to force opinion.
And they are NOT news is any form!

[zanana1]

12. I'm with you there.

[former9thward]

31. Why does the Democratic party use contributors money to pay for these polls?

If they are all lies? The Democratic campaigns pay tens of millions for polls. Seems like a horrible waste of people's money if they are just lies.

[Captain Zero]

53. to gauge areas of swing states that flip the electoral

College.
Unfortunately that's all that matters anymore.

I did get polled by AP-NORC in 2020 about 10 days before the election. And I think that poll ended up about right.

Are there an AP-NORC polls out there yet?

[former9thward]

54. Yes, I agree 100%.

My point is that professional campaign organizations know these polls are not "all lies". Most are reasonably accurate at that point in time. Yes, you can have odd ball polls or polls commissioned directly by candidates which can give suspicious results. But an average of polls gives you a good picture and a point on a trend line.

[Farmer-Rick]

71. The real polls,

The ones the candidates look at and establish campaign policy around, are never published.

Maybe near the end of a campaign a quality, party poll will get published. But I highly doubt that campaigns will pay good money for accurate, well prepared polls and then give them out for the media and their opponents to use.

The ones we see published in the media are for propaganda purposes.

The exit polls can be pretty good too....but that's after all is said and done. Unless your Rove and W with Ohio results.

[stopdiggin]

105. I guess you can SAY anything you want.

Doesn't really change the fact that there are good polls - and bad polls - but all polling should be judged on its merit.

[Walleye]

8. News media covers it like it's just another GOP versus Dem. presidential election

I don’t think there’s anything we can do about that, it’s very frustrating. Most of the reporters, especially on TV, are in their tabloid, reality TV mode. That’s where they make their money. The issues we are facing are so dangerous and complicated you would think they would come up with something besides who is up in the polls this week.

[calimary]

9. Just means WE ALL have to make sure we VOTE

Do not get depressed or panicked. It’s WAAAAAAY too early for that.

I don’t like how the Sunday shows are all obsessing on the latest polls. We’re A YEAR away. A lot can happen between now and then. But then again, bad news really sells, and gets ‘em talking. And news coverage does always seem to accentuate the negative.

DON’T panic. Just let it firm up your resolve.

[zanana1]

11. Just how are we fighting each other?

[Wednesdays]

15. Take a look at ANY thread about Israel or Palestinians. nt

[yardwork]

18. Disagreement on I/P doesn't translate to not supporting Biden.

It might, but I don't see evidence that it's happening yet.

[womanofthehills]

33. Biden's favorability among Dems dropped 11 points

Not good. All the young name calling Biden at rallies- not good.

[Captain Zero]

55. Any party with a sitting prez that doesn't nominate him

For a second run.

HAS LOST.

[Army Brat]

78. That would be against the terms of service

so you won't see it here.

[Zeitghost]

97. There are plenty of people threatening to withhold their votes

Still lots of time to see how that translates to overall voter turnout. But there is definitely a wing of the party lead by Congresswoman Tlaib doing their best to trash President Biden over this.

[yardwork]

100. Well, I don't think most American voters agree with Tlaib.

[BaronChocula]

32. Perhaps not here on DU

But there are Dems STILL complaining that Biden is too old. It impacts enthusiasm, but if a poll is between an old man and an old man indicted on multiple charges, I would still think they would choose the one who isn't indicted.

[budkin]

13. Trump isn't ahead at all

These polls are garbage.

[Sky Jewels]

14. It's beyond depressing that there is even a remote possibility that

that treasonous traitor terrorist piece of shit could get reelected after attempting a violent coup d'etat (as well as a list of other horrors a mile long). I really hate this country sometimes.

[ShazzieB]

45. It was already beyond depressing that he had a chance to be reelected in 2020.

After everything that's gone down since then, it's absolutely mind-boggling.

I felt like I had fallen into some sort of alternate reality after the 2016 election. When Biden won in 2020, I was naive enough to think the nightmare was finally over. At this point, there's no telling when it will be completely over. Trumpism is actually a word now, and MAGA is a recognized "movement" of sorts. He's bound to die sometime, but he could be around for quote a while yet, continuing to influence his followers, even from a prison cell.

My hope is to outlive him by enough years to see MAGA sink into the sunset. Fingers crossed that I make it.

[Sky Jewels]

98. I had the same feeling. I felt like I'd woken up in a dystopian nightmare.

And then you look around, and tens and tens of millions of your fellow citizens are just fine and dandy with the dystopian nightmare. And now many want to return to it.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

16. President Obama was predicted to be a one-term POTUS at this time in 2011

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

[C Moon]

24. That was before the "47%" comment in mid-September 2012.

[gulliver]

17. Trumpism and wokeism are the same thing.

Both are acts of desperation and resentment. They are a form of acting out. Both are ridiculously misguided, unjust, and, most annoyingly, unnecessary. Everybody's so informed now that there's an epidemic of foolishness.

[Blues Heron]

77. cool story bro

[sabrams]

19. Get the word out

Democrats, must start going on the offense. We must proudly and loudly talk about Biden's accomplishments. Point out all the things that Biden has done that trump failed to do. Don't be afraid to talk about trumps poopy pants. Show clips of him talking gibberish. Talk about that fact we are producing more energy now than ever before. Go to the EIA.gov site and learn the reports.
I don't expect to convert any trump supporters, but I would hope we could get democrats and those who understand this fight isn't about red vs blue to get out and vote. To many democratic voters are ignorant of the Biden wins.

[Lonestarblue]

21. According to the latest NYT/Siena poll, responders cited trusting Trump more on the

economy, foreign policy, and immigration. Great jumping Jehoshaphats! The Biden administration has helped create over 14 million jobs at a pace far better than Trump’s even before Covid. As for foreign policy, world leaders thought Trump was an ignorant fool, and most Europeans thought US voters had gone off the deep end to elect Trump. He tried to destroy NATO, and he managed to alienate every one of the leaders of our allies with his buffoonery. Most openly laughed at his ridiculous posturing.

As for immigration, Covid slowed the onslaught of migrants at the border, along with Trump’s heinous policy of separating children from parents and putting even toddlers in cages, which should have been considered a crime against humanity. Even today, years later, the government doesn’t know where thousands of kids Trump took from their parents are. For all we know, they were all sold for sex trafficking because that would fit with Trump and Stephen Miller’s warped sense of retribution for desperate people daring to appear at the border.

Those polled cited that Biden’s policies had hurt them personally. Of course, the pollsters never asked how they gad been hurt. I suspect the hurt would natch right-wing media lies.

[Shermann]

25. The best foreign policy is no foreign policy in the right wing view

I don't think his anti-NATO rhetoric has aged well going into 2024 given the Ukraine situation.

[padah513]

22. They're back to this again, huh?

I guess all those special election wins don't count.

[LenaBaby61]

44. "I guess all those special election wins don't count."

NOPE they don't count.

The mostly corporate media's out here busy bashing Kamala Harris and talking about how much people really hate her guts, yet they're not paying much attention to how traitor tRump is melting down cognitively and speaking unhinged gibberish during his rallies and also missing the fact that his so-called rallies are getting much much smaller. I had to look to overseas media to see where tRumpers are walking out on their deranged cult leader during his unhinged klan rallies here in the USA. As someone up thread said, these piece of shit polls aren't even interviewing likely voters or people who've even voted in any rrecent election. Look at that piece of shit Washington Post poll that was run and circulated widely which we cross-tabs showed that they over-sampled the GQP voters AGAIN, and where they're still polling folks on landlines Then to hear Dan Balz of the Post say that the poll that was run in his estimation was a huge outlier poll for sure. WHY in hell run your fucked up, let's over-sample GQP voters on landlines method poll Mr. Balz? Good Lord, it's getting more difficult to tell if russia or the mostly corporate US media's talking about our own country and siding with tRaitor tRump, who you know wants tRump back in the Oval. And damn, look at Tick Tock. A friend (Jewish) told me last week that her granddaughter told her that she and many of her buddies canceled--and they're telling their Friends--to cancel their subscriptions on Tick Tock, because they're only running a pro-Hamas angle, which is unfortunately getting many young folks to take a look at Hamas in a 'different' light. Look at Hamas, a terrorist organization using those poor Palestinian people as human shields in a different light Yeah, those poor folks at Hamas are misunderstood 👀 Gee, the Chinese government (besties with Vlad) does that on Tick Tock? So, the 240 hostages (Some US citizens) aren't hostages being held by Hamas? The hopeful thing is that my friends grands and her buddies do not want a war fought by right-winged, Likud criminal BiBi in their name, have much compassion for te Palestinian people, and who are not falling for Chinese Tick Tock's pro-Hamas stance. My friends relatives living in Israel HATE Hamas, uh yeah, but they still hate BiBi also. They want peace and less Likud trying to destroy Israel. Gee, Tick Tock is running with Chinese government propaganda and speaking up for Hamas, a terrorist organization? Quell surprise 👀

Dems MUST get out there on the offensive like Pres. Biden's doing as it relates to aid to Ukraine and Israel, and while I know that these corporate-loving Sunday political shows only mostly invite GQP'ers on, Dems have to talk up how the US Taliban party aka the GQP wants to federalize abortion, and give more tax cutts to the rich and get rid of social security, SNAP, medicare, medical et al. Keep talking about this loud and strong.

[Nasruddin]

26. I think it's simple

Last edited Sun Nov 5, 2023, 07:34 PM - Edit history (1)

Cost of gasoline in Illinois in 2022 2020: $2.65/gal
Cost of gasoline in Illinois in 2023: $3.45/gal

That's a cost people see just about every day. That's the meaning of "inflation" to most people (never mind how some egghead defines it).

You want to make this election work? Change that table! (ceteris paribus)

[moniss]

42. Illinois and some other states

have also made increases to their state gas/diesel taxes that account for some of that but never get focused on by the media reporting. Illinois is typically one of the highest per gallon tax in the nation. In fact according to the EIA government price survey for the week of 10/30/23 the average price for diesel in the Midwest region was $4.44 per gallon versus $5.32 per gallon a year ago. Diesel nationwide is nearly 90 cents per gallon lower than a year ago.

The EIA government survey shows Midwest regular gas at $3.25 per gallon the week of 10/30/23 versus $3.64 a year ago. In my per gallon pricing I left off the usual 3rd place behind the decimal point because I don't think we're really talking about a tenth of a penny here or there.

https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/

[Nasruddin]

50. Re: Illinois and some other states

Sorry, that figure is from 2020, not 2022 - I'm going to correct the posting

[Shermann]

43. That was the essence of Pence's campaign

It ran out of gas.

[Nasruddin]

51. Not the general election

1) He's running against the cult inside his own party
2) He has the charisma and charm of a wet mop

[sleroy49]

73. Inflation is it.

I hear people complaining about it constantly, and they're right. Feeding a family of 4 at McDonald's costs $50 now. Grocery bills seem about doubled. People are gonna blame someone. It looks like they have chosen Biden.

[DoBW]

27. Psyops is right

i have learned these are what are called suppression polls, designed to wear people down into thinking their participation in democracy is of no use or pointless, designed to demoralize and erode spirit. These polls are deployed as weapons or active measures. All this GOP sh*t comes from Russia.

[moniss]

35. The media consistently looks to report

negatives,problems and conflicts and then claim nothing is being done. You won't see the media talk about the massive success across the entire country of the Infrastructure bills that the Democrats got passed despite Joe Manchin and "Cinema". All you see reported is a non-ending scream when gas prices go up and barely a whisper when they go down.

It's an agenda by the media to have their "close horse race" and they'll do whatever it takes to manufacture that. Notice that during the UAW strike and the UPS/Teamster negotiations you didn't see media reports about how those increased wages would help the workers send their kids to college, pay the mortgage etc. or help their kids starting out in a marriage by putting up the down-payment to buy a starter house. What you did see were all kinds of reports about how it was "maybe asking for too much" or how it might affect car prices or inflation. So they could make the framing a simple argument of "greedy worker asking too much" versus "struggling company" and "greedy worker making things bad for the rest of us".

[The_Casual_Observer]

37. Trump has been promising to solve all the worlds

Problems on day one. His speeches reach millions of people. He's the only person that makes those audacious claims and it gives people hope and direction.
It's all utter bullshit, but it works.

[SWBTATTReg]

40. This fear mongering doesn't do us any good, and I don't think it's accurate, the %s being reported.

I think as one DU responder said w/ regards to the 2022 results, no one expected that democrats would pull off basically a save when we were expected to lose, due to history when the opposing party wins the House, as repugs did barely in 2022. This tells me that more and more Americans are tired of tRUMP's games, verbal gonorrhea, and just plain idiotic comments that have nothing to do w/ real earth stuff, such as toilets flushing, The U.S. vs. us, and other idiotic things that tRUMP has spewed out.

Yeah, sure, Pres. Biden isn't running around w/ his head off sprouting nonsense like tRUMP, but I like a steady hand at the helm, with Pres. Biden, and we don't need the grief and crap that tRUMP will bring back again, after we had him for four years and he somehow thinks that he is good for the Country? tRUMP has been running a presidential campaign literally since day 1, and Pres. Biden has yet to really start. So yeah, maybe some poll numbers are up for the orange tangerine, but I view them really cynically, especially at this stage of the game, it hasn't really started yet.

[Celerity]

47. Non voters (the ones who should be voting for Dems) are a large problem too, aided by RW voter suppression

[WarGamer]

48. It's simpler than that.

There ARE NO fence sitters.

Each side hates the other and the side that GOTV will win.

Don't try to use logic...

The danger is that people WON'T SHOW UP because they're mad about Israel or inflation or whatever the gripe of the day is.

[Nasruddin]

52. It would be nice if this is true

Because it really would be simpler.

However, there are [STILL] an enormous number of people who don't pay much attention day-to-day but will show up for a presidential election - the proverbial low-information voter. They may, in those magic 6 states, decide who wins. You have to reach them.

[MyNameIsJonas]

60. We saw there are fence-sitters, tho.

They exist.

They're the reason Trump even won in 2016.

Go look at his numbers and compare them to Romney's - he only saw a one-to-two point increase in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin compared to Romney. In all three of those states, it shouldn't have been enough to win him the presidency but because Hillary saw a significant drop in support compared to Obama, it did. Where did those voters go? They voted third party.

Those are the fence-sitters we need to be worried about. In 2020, they came back into the fold. Trump didn't do much worse in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin than he did in 2016.

In Wisconsin, his support went from 47.22 in 2016 to 48.82 - so, he actually improved marginally.
In Michigan, it went from 47.25 to 47.77 - so, again, he actually improved marginally.
In Pennsylvania, it went from 48.17 to 48.69, so, barely improving.

What won those states for Biden is that he gained back a lot of the third party votes who went against Clinton in 2016.

If Biden wins 'em back by this time next year, he'll win reelection. If he fails to win 'em back again, 2024 will be like 2016.

These aren't voters who'll sit the race out - they're voters who will go to the polls and vote third party.

That doomed Hillary in 2016 and if Biden loses, it'll doom him in 2024.

[WarGamer]

62. Those aren't fence sitters.

Those are people who were previously disengaged with the process.

[MyNameIsJonas]

64. They absolutely are fence-sitters lol

What the hell do you consider a fence-sitter?

It's literally the definition. They're not committed to supporting the Democratic nominee. They might. They might not. It'll depend on things. In 2016, they decided to go vote third party. In 2020, they decided to vote for Biden. In 2024? We don't know.

What we do know is that they're probably not inclined to vote Trump. This isn't Biden vs Trump with these voters. It's Biden vs West/RFK Jr/Whoever.

Literally the definition of a fence-sitter.

[Pototan]

56. From your keyboard to God's eyes (NT)

[bdamomma]

57. This

And we Democrats have decided to fuck ourselves and our freedoms by not standing together against the Trumpism threat.


We must stick together or those who want to see our democracy fail will be celebrating. You know who I am referring too.

[JayDem]

58. It's just like trying to predict the winner..

of the World Series before the first game of the season has been played. Any polls this early have about that same level of validity. But, there seems to be a great deal of interest in the polls, even here on DU. I find this very surprising. It is almost as if we are all excessively interested in this main stream media "eyeball capture" issue. I think I'll try to find something more informative to do with my time.

[IbogaProject]

63. You know the last two elections were decided by a small number of voters in a few states?

We won the last election not by 8 million votes, but by about 133,000 votes over 4 states, T45 won in 2016 by under 90K over 3 states. This will be a close race no mater what, the Electoral College insures this and will need to be abolished eventually.

[brooklynite]

67. Reality check: its not about Democrats or Republicans...

Approximately 45% of voters will support the Democratic candidate regardless. Approximately 45% of voters will support the Republican candidate regardless.

We're fighting over 10% of the electorate, who don't have a strong ideological bent, who don't watch unless hours of cable news or hang out in political blogs, and who live in States with a high inclination to switch between Democratic and Republican candidates.

Understanding their issues and concerns is a critical element in preparing a campaign strategy,

[AverageOldGuy]

68. Before freaking out, read this analysis of the NYT "polls"

This analysis of the NYT "polls" points out some critical facts -- "The NY Times polls do not pass the sniff test."

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/11/5/2203808/-The-NY-Times-Polls-do-not-Pass-the-Sniff-Test?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web

[ALBliberal]

72. Thanks for posting!!

[AverageOldGuy]

69. I can't vouch for any of this . . .

This information was copied directly from a comment on a Washington Post article about Trump's upcoming testimony in NY. No sources given. If this is true, then, the poll is useless.

ANSWER—>Who participated in the NYT/Sienna Poll:

Majority identified as leaning or Republican voters (49%)
High school graduate
White, (only 12% African/Black)
79% aren't paying off college loans,
Over age 45 with a large chunk over age 65

[bucolic_frolic]

70. Biased MSM will never allow Democrats to be the dominant party

We are always barely squeezing out victories, surprise victories, come-from-behind wins. MSM view Republicans as the dominant party, entrenched in power, losing only when underperforming or fumbling issues. So this polling is consistent with that bias.

[Magoo48]

74. Trump is not ahead of Joe Biden.

Trumped up—ha ha—right wing horseshit and gunsmoke, as well as corporate media’s willingness to say whatever is necessary to improve greed driven ratings, doesn’t mean shit and has no roots at all In really.

[doc03]

80. How can you say the polls are down because Democrats are fighting each other,

when for a year Democrats have been laughing at the House Republicans for being in total disarray and in a civil war? Rather than sticking our head in the sand we better take the polls for what they are. When you are running against someone
with 91 felony charges and one of the worst records in office and you are being beat in the polls something is seriously wrong. When people like James Carville and David Axelrod say we are in trouble that is big. Rather than attacking the messenger
Democrats need to make some hard choices and fast. Seems like now everybody is banking on the outcome of Trump's court cases to win the election for us.

[RKP5637]

81. Very well said!!! n/t

[CincyDem]

82. Agree. It's the difference between "any" and "every".

Republicans seem to look for ANYthing in a candidate they can support and disregard the rest.

We seem to look for EVERYthing in a candidate before we can support them.

This is the time to focus on one issue - democracy. If we let ANYthing cloud our vision of that goal, we let EVERYthing slip away.

A close friend, a long time (and at times) rabid dem, sent me a text recently saying he was “unsure” about Biden’s commitment in Israel and none of this should have happened if trump were in office.

What the actual f’ckety f’ck. He’ll come round but I never thought I’d have to put him on my watch list. Sheesh.

But that’s our issue.

[Chainfire]

84. Lets face it, in some ways Biden is like Trump; he only inspires his true believers

and the Party faithfuls. Good works and a highly successful presidency is not good enough for the American people. Young people certainly aren't impressed with his age; he just isn't cool enough. The question will boil down to who has the most true believers. It is going to be close, and while polls can be wrong, theyare not meaningless regardless of what we want to believe. We have an uphill struggle on our hands in a battle we can not afford to lose.

[muriel_volestrangler]

85. Isn't that "*because of* what the polls say, we Democrats must all unite and slay this deadly dragon"?

If the polls showed Trump far behind, there wouldn't be a need for further uniting.

[Historic NY]

86. I constantly get calls for opinions etc.

I just don't answer, so they must keep calling people until someone picks up

[hibbing]

87. You left the racism off the list n/t

[Ferrets are Cool]

88. I do not agree with most that you say in your post...

anyone who listens to polls and believes them is deluded. They are skewed. It's been proven time and time again.

[Lanius]

89. "And we Democrats are busy fighting each other."

When has this never not been the case when Democrats are in power? The various factions that make up the Democratic Party take control of government then fall into fighting amongst themselves, especially progressives vs. centrists. Sometimes the fighting gets so heated that a certain segment of voters won’t turn out or vote for a candidate and it costs the party an election.

[Cyrano]

91. We can't afford to lose next year's presidential and congressional elections.

And, if we do lose, (especially the presidential election), we may never again see another election in our lifetimes.

We Dems are wired differently from our fascist opponents. If they win, they'll destroy us in a heartbeat.

[mkassowitz]

90. Active Measures

Prediction: We're going to find out not to far down the road that the conflict among Dems about Gaza/Israel is being amplified by active measures from Russia. These guys still want Trump back in the White House and they are not idle.

[qwlauren35]

99. I don't think this is the reason.

I think the election will be won by Independents. Who lean Republican, but aren't. They are not MAGATs. But they are not impressed with our economy. Can we impress them with the economy in one year? Maybe. But high interest rates are not in our favor.

The election will also be influenced by the young, who are looking at Biden siding with Israel and are concerned. Not noticing that Trump calls himself Israel's best friend. They may choose to stay home, or vote for another candidate who has not emerged yet.

I don't think it's too late for an Independent candidate to make a difference.

[walkingman]

101. For Unity!! ☮

[Chainfire]

102. We may fight among our selves, most families do, but we will know what to do on election day.

[Tribetime]

103. No way it should be even close media won't

Do their job

[IAmReynaldo]

106. Real

There are a lot of reasons that we can talk about but there are some just a lot of issues with how people see this.