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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsPolitical Wire: "Biden Has Lost Young Voters"
A big one is that Joe Biden barely tops Donald Trump among 18-to-29-year-old voters, 47% to 46%.
That doesn’t mean young voters suddenly like Trump. They don’t even lean towards Republicans.
If you dig into the poll’s cross-tabs, you find that when Trump is matched against an “unnamed generic Democrat,” young voters break hard for the Democrat, 55% to 34%.
https://politicalwire.com/2023/11/05/biden-has-lost-young-voters/
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FarPoint
(14,766 posts)We are a year away from the election....
brooklynite
(96,882 posts)Yes we are a year away from the election. But if young voters feel that way it's an issue. And if you believe young voters DON'T feel that way, what of you think the actual polling numbers should be?
ZonkerHarris
(25,577 posts)It all boils down to money.
for all of them
Clicks equals money for "Political Wire"
You've done your part for them today.
stopdiggin
(15,463 posts)And I have absolutely no 'fix' or solution for it. But the disaffection is there. (and with the young not being the only demographic disaffected) And Joe Biden, despite a fairly upbeat record and persona, remains a lukewarm figure for many in the public. The faint sliver of light here - is the the Republicans continue to torpedo their own brand, almost on a daily basis, with that same pool of voters. Extremely unpopular on all measures - except among the hard core MAGA.
FarPoint
(14,766 posts)2024 election will be won ...Biden due to the women voting and young voters....
brush
(61,033 posts)At least two trials will start before the election, and he's not beating all of them.
That's gonna lose him votes...except for the hardcore magats of course.
ismnotwasm
(42,674 posts)Young people interested in politics are passionate and angry at several things right now, and lack confidence in government as a whole, not just Biden.
Biden has shown remarkable political acumen and is actively reaching out to young voters.
What’s disturbing is how many like Trump.
KentuckyWoman
(7,401 posts)In the booth they'll have to decide if they want to save the whole idea of Americans having a voice in government or throw it in the manure pile for decades to come. "Young voters" are the group most impacted by that. I don't take for granted anything, but I do have faith that this group will do the right thing.
WhiteTara
(31,260 posts)Next week is a different day and different poll. It's a year away.
Elessar Zappa
(16,385 posts)Young voters certainly have no love for Republicans, in general. With the right messaging we can get those voters back.
JohnSJ
(98,883 posts)are going to vote for Trump. It indicates that progressives really not going to vote for Biden over Trump. It indicates that only a slight number of women in this poll concerned about the right to choose, Etc.
Biggest issues in this Sienna poll were the economy, crime, and immigration. If all that is true, and trump is the republican candidate, then we are in trouble, and it is beyond Biden or any other possible Democratic candidate.
Except for the "age concern" reflected in this poll, there is no Democratic candidate who would change the opinion of those in this poll, because those possible Democratic candidates would be different than Biden on the Economy, which was by far the most important issue in this poll.
The most troubling part of this poll is that those polled are saying they have no problem electing someone who tried to overthrow the government, and if that is the case, the country is truly finished.
Qutzupalotl
(15,824 posts)It's not going away, even if men can forget it. Women might wish they had the luxury of voting their pocketbooks/purses. Or constitutional government vs. fascism. They see their rights being taken away mostly by men, who will never walk in their shoes. And they're angry about the situation, as evidenced by all the special elections since Dobbs.
Republicans know they're vulnerable, too. So our job is to remind all voters what's at stake and what could be with an all-D or all-R House, Senate, and presidency.
Alliepoo
(2,832 posts)That Biden needs to appoint someone now to be the Greedflation czar ( thanks to another DUer that came up with that!) The economy to most people is the ridiculous prices we pay at the grocery. Make no mistake-Biden and the Dems are being blamed. I have seen so often lately on local neighborhood pages, Facebook pages, even talking to folks at the swimming pool that people are very upset about this. Yesterday on a food/cooking fb page I belong to there was a huge to do about this very thing. Most people don’t follow politics like we do and don’t know the reasons for high prices or care why they’re high but that they’re high. They don’t care that it’s global. They care about their own wallet. Me and a few others tried to hold the line and explain why but it blew up fast and we were completely drowned out and overwhelmed by peeps blaming Biden and remarking” how bad the economy is when Dems are involved”. These are everyday folks that just love to cook and share recipes. I went back to say more but the admins had removed it. This is what everyday folks are thinking. . It’s anecdotal but it seems to be everywhere online that I go. The DUer that suggested the Greedflation czar and that weekly public reports should be made as to greedy corporation of the week, how/what/why companies are making record profits etc, was spot on. What a flipping great idea! It would get peoples attention and educate them at the same time. Dems should come out swinging and be loud about what they’re doing to help bring prices down and make life more affordable for folks. High prices. That’s what folks care about and have to deal with every single day.
yellowdogintexas
(23,694 posts)brush
(61,033 posts)It's total BS that that many Black voters will support that openly racist, four-times indicted crook.
BTW, I'm Black and know better from discussions and comments of disgust at such a notion from family, friends and associates.
Keepthesoulalive
(2,304 posts)Black folks aren’t stupid, they know what’s going on and vote accordingly.
brush
(61,033 posts)
Aepps22
(383 posts)Black folks will vote and will vote in numbers for Joe. We aren’t stupid and we know what Trump is all about
tavernier
(14,443 posts)Last edited Sun Nov 5, 2023, 07:28 PM - Edit history (1)
If you don’t know what I’m referring to, google her influence on millions of young women and fans in general. She has broken registration records across the country as she tours and asks her fans to register to vote. And they have.
brooklynite
(96,882 posts)...then you can wonder whether the Taylor Swift fans in the buzz of her tour will remember a year from now to show up and vote.
tavernier
(14,443 posts)I never complain. Ever. Just ask my hubby.
Cha
(319,081 posts)She wanted to stand up for Rights in America.. Voting and LGBTQ.. That wouldn’t be happening under the traitor.
tavernier
(14,443 posts)Thanks for that creepy reminder, Cha! 
My 50 year old daughters are TS fans. I love her ferocity regarding support of women and mothers and daughters! Im not that nuts for her music… ok, I’m old and a die hard Freddie Mercury fan.. but I respect this sister greatly!!
Whatever Jim Jones Kool Aid group this ding bat poll happened to call, they didn’t get any of today’s youth. These kids aren’t stupid! They want to save the planet for themselves and for their children. They want women’s equality and women’s rights for their own bodies. They want a country where their children and grandchildren don’t have to worry about being blown up in their kindergarten class.
Stop selling us bullshit and trying to make it smell like honeysuckle.
Cha
(319,081 posts)to describe it!
Oh and how could I have forgotten Women's Rights.. Mahalo!
Another good Point .. "Save the Planet for themselves"!!
My sister took her grandkids, too young to vote, to a TS concert on May 25th in New Jjersey .. showed me a short Vid.. it was Huge and Happy!
Martin Eden
(15,629 posts)Who will likely be a convicted felon in less than a year.
Economy? Biden wins hands-down if public perception can be pushed closer to reality.
Sugarcoated
(8,240 posts)granddaughter and several of her friends. Her major is political science. They follow political news/people on tIk tok and IG
Cha
(319,081 posts)
andym
(6,066 posts)It finally looks like the Fed's aggressive monetary policy is working. Gas prices are again falling. Barring unexpected bad news, the economy with regards to inflationary pressures is cooling just enough that the Fed could consider reversing their policy in about a year (or maybe less). Bidenomics will benefit just as Reaganomics benefited 40 years ago, transforming Reagan from a certain loser to an unbeatable candidate. The biggest problem is that there is at least a 6-9 month lag between the parallels in 1983 and 2023, so the recovery will be less complete in 2024 versus 1984.
Also, it's not just young voters who will care.
Fiendish Thingy
(23,240 posts)Or merely misplaced them?
I’m not worried; if these numbers hold next summer, then I’ll be worried.
Meanwhile, keep your eyes on non-primary elections between now and then.
If young voter turn out for abortion rights in Ohio on Tuesday, I can’t believe they won’t vote for Biden next fall.
LenaBaby61
(6,991 posts)with tRump media says. They'd love to have tRump back in office because they can make big ad dollars off him, unlike with President Biden who hasn't been convicted of sexually misconduct/rape against a woman. Lie he wouldn't take them outback and shoot them or push them out off windows if they said one thing that he didn't disagree with? And by the way, this same corporate media wants to bash Kamala Harris and let what tRump did go? We have a media that isn't worth a damn in this country. And, don't get me started on these propagandigized Chinese Tik Tock polls which brain washes young folks. Back to our polling in the USA where most keep talking about how old and feeble Pres Biden is, but no such thing is said about tRump whose only 3 years younger and whose looking worse by the MONTH physically, and whose becoming more unhinged each trial. You notice that? This mostly corporate media has normalized tRump. Pres. Biden trips over a sandbag, and it's oh no, Biden's feeble, frail. tRaitor tRump's talking about ending the US Constitution, jailing people, murdering and assassinating Retired Generals because they wouldn't help him with his January 6th coup/insurrection, and it's mostly crickets from this no account, mostly corporate media. tRump's out here now trying to rig Nevada while he's on trial, and is this media talking about it? Nope, manyy are totally fixated on talking down Pres. Biden's accompmlishments, or they're floating a "How much people 'hate' Kamala Harris" memes. Have the asses seen Britain's economy lately, and how right-winged Brexit destroyed it? tRump's melting down cognitively more each week. Have you seen clips of his rallies lately, where even his maggot followers are walking out on? tRump may not even make it TO November 2024. In what's left of his mind, he's running vs Pres. Obama for God's sake, says that whales are being killed by windmills and that he won all 50 states in 2020's general election? I can guarantee you, he didn't win California. It's sad, but many in our media are not functioning well, is gas-lighting and outright LYING to it's OWN citizens. It's bad enough that what's left of Russia is still meddling with our eleections, and that putin's trying to still get his rapist, treasonous, criminal, ass-kissing lap dog tRump elected again. With fake reporting by this mostly corporate media, it's no wonder people are canceling their newspaper subscriptions.
3catwoman3
(29,406 posts)Too hard to read.
SWBTATTReg
(26,257 posts)Cha
(319,081 posts)And leave the post.
Celerity
(54,410 posts)that Taegan Goddard is referring to.
TIA.
Sympthsical
(10,969 posts)Celerity
(54,410 posts)Sympthsical
(10,969 posts)Which was linked way at the bottom of the Times article.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/05/upshot/polls-biden-trump-2024.html
Celerity
(54,410 posts)
DoBW
(3,223 posts)i have learned most polls are what are called suppression polls, designed to wear people down into thinking their participation in democracy is of no use or pointless, designed to demoralize and erode spirit. These polls are deployed as weapons or active measures. Their true origins are murky at best, but all this GOP sh*t comes mainly from Russia. Hearts and minds and all that sh*t. 3 posts about polls in under an hour, gimme a break. Useful idiots out there
bigtree
(94,265 posts)...because who the fuck is Goddard, but some opportunist making bucks posting opinionated blurbs in response to other people's articles?
Many of them outwardly hostile to Democrats.
No poll this far out is a credible or reliable measure of an election more than a year from now.
Moreover, this 'weighted' poll is an effort to equalize results by oversampling republicans based on their OWN past surveys:
Weighting — registered voters
"The survey was weighted by The Times using the R survey package in multiple steps to account for the oversample of Republican voters."
...how's that?
First, the samples were adjusted for unequal probability of selection by stratum.
Second, the first-stage weight was adjusted to account for the probability that a registrant would vote in the 2024 election, based on a model of turnout in the 2020 election.
Third, the six state samples were weighted separately to match targets for the composition of the likely electorate. The targets for the composition of the likely electorate were derived by aggregating the individual-level turnout estimates described in the previous step for registrants on the L2 voter file. The categories used in weighting were the same as those previously mentioned for registered voters.
Fourth, the initial likely electorate weight was adjusted to incorporate self-reported vote intention. The final probability that a registrant would vote in the 2024 election was four-fifths based on their ex ante modeled turnout score and one-fifth based on their self-reported intention, based on prior Times/Siena polls, including a penalty to account for the tendency of survey respondents to turn out at higher rates than nonrespondents. The final likely electorate weight was equal to the modeled electorate rake weight, multiplied by the final turnout probability and divided by the ex ante modeled turnout probability.
Finally, the six state samples were balanced to each represent one-sixth of the sum of the weights.
The margin of error accounts for the survey’s design effect, a measure of the loss of statistical power due to survey design and weighting. The design effect for the full battleground sample of registered voters is 1.29. The design effect for the likely electorate is 1.46, which includes the added variance due to incorporating the probability that a respondent will participate in the 2024 election.
methodology: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/11/05/us/elections/times-siena-battlegrounds-registered-voters.html
unc70
(6,501 posts)Having four separate manipulations of sample of data is rather excessive. Trying to force the data into all those different subgroups is likely to totally deform the samples, making the results little more than gibberish.
While my graduate courses is statistics, experimental design, etc. were fifty years ago, the underlying math hasn't changed since then. Just because SAS (or whatever) can compute some numbers doesn't make them valid.
FHRRK
(1,410 posts)Last edited Mon Nov 6, 2023, 12:39 PM - Edit history (1)
Delete
vercetti2021
(10,481 posts)You're telling me that the same youth that overwhelmingly prevented a red wave on 2022 are all of a sudden okay with fascism? I'm not buying it
tavernier
(14,443 posts)If it smells like bullshit…
Bleacher Creature
(11,504 posts)Grumble all you want about Biden - I'm confident that every complaint can be refuted - but if someone thinks that Trump is better on anything then they are not a rational person.
forthemiddle
(1,459 posts)It’s if they are motivated to come out and vote.
They will always sway left, but they aren’t always motivated to come out and vote.
ColinC
(11,098 posts)I think this will eventually pass as soon as the crisis is resolved. If by next summer it is not, then we could be in trouble
walkingman
(10,865 posts)
liberalmediaaddict
(998 posts)For every good or bad poll there's one that contradicts it.
Honestly if Democrats focus on reaching out directly to voters where they live and GOTV efforts we should do a lot better with young voters.
Unfortunately President Biden isn't the strongest communicator and Democrats don't have a trio of media propaganda networks pushing out our message 24/7.
The Biden team and DNC seems to recognize that's a liability. They've got a lot of smart, experienced people trying to change the narrative. It's definitely an upheaval battle.
Oopsie Daisy
(6,670 posts)
Lettuce Be
(2,355 posts)No matter who wins the nomination, anyone who cares and is paying attention will not be voting for R's.
All the advance hype, is for eyeballs, and that is all. For some reason, the media seems to believe we would all tune out if the news was good, so they try to scare us every single day. I remember it with Obama, and they were very wrong.
emulatorloo
(46,155 posts)bullimiami
(14,075 posts)
Initech
(108,783 posts)Trump and Fox News turned America into a nightmare version of its' former self. Biden isn't perfect, but to quote Bill Maher, he's at least trying to get the smell of stupid out of the room. And Trump left a giant, steaming, rancid turd for Biden to clean up.
Look, there's going to be multiple attempts to gaslight the 2024 election. There's way too much at stake. And we can't let Trump and his gonna win. They will murder people in the streets. They will round up and execute their political opponents while declaring martial law. They will commit mass murder. All the signs are there. If you're not outraged by the horrors of what a second Trump administration would bring, you're not paying attention close enough. 
DoBW
(3,223 posts)Suppression polls are engineered to wear you out. They're junk products for the weak-minded
Think. Again.
(22,456 posts)...made it clear that strong climate change action is a major priority for them.
Biden has done some fantastic stuff on that issue, but unfortunately the administration has not made either their accomplishments OR their intention to do a LOT MORE very visible or celebrated.
It needs to be made undeniably clear and, well, sexy, that climate change action is definitely a huge priority for Biden, on an ongoing basis.
Very loud, very clear, and very consistent, nonstop.
Sancho
(9,205 posts)No action on gun control.
No action on immigration.
Women are losing their rights.
Sexual orientation is not protected.
Registering to vote is hell and everything is gerrymandered.
No real action on the environment.
War, war, war...
The young voters are fed up, and the polls show it.
There are a subset who are falling for the right-wing extremism, but most just want something real to happen.
Think. Again.
(22,456 posts)...we are disregarding their very rational concerns at our own peril.
These young people have the strength of being correct going for them.
We need to show them we can be strong for them too, or they will rightfully look elsewhere.
vercetti2021
(10,481 posts)Do they believe under Trump and the GOP it will get better? Like do they not understand that progress takes time and a Democratic Congress? This is what bothers me about youth voters. They are fucking fickle on shit because they think protest voting is gonna change everything. Or teach Biden a lesson. And if fascism takes hold. They'll bitch and moan about why they lost their rights. These young people sadly have a lot to learn about the real world of politics.
SYFROYH
(34,214 posts)He could vote in local elections this Tuesday, but he said he doesn't care.
I still have a year to work on him.
JohnSJ
(98,883 posts)immaterial?
Do they want someone who is far left with the ideology of AOC?
Happy Hoosier
(9,535 posts)… enjoy living under Fascism.
greatauntoftriplets
(179,007 posts)
PortTack
(35,820 posts)Please please don’t pay attention to these fear mongering polls! They have the effect the gqp is hoping for!
Polls at best are a brief snapshot of this moment, nothing more.
peachpit24
(97 posts)If that's true, it's their future they are shaping. The USA will be on its way to Handmaids Tale.
vercetti2021
(10,481 posts)Youth voters sadly have no real world concept on politics.
The_Casual_Observer
(27,742 posts)Like in the past
betsuni
(29,078 posts)Metaphorical
(2,634 posts)Young people are far more employed today than they were in 2020. They are far more concerned about LGBQT issues, and women's autonomy. They are less concerned about inflation than older demographics, and generally are not as dependent upon gasoline, which is the most unpredictable component of inflation. If Powell is correct, rates should start falling before the end of the year. Tech sector is hurting, but the vectors there are in the right direction. Most young people are NOT invested in the stock market - they distrust it, and most can still not afford to be invested in it.
Sounds to me like polling, like everything else, has been corrupted.
ecstatic
(35,075 posts)starting next summer, I'm really going to use every tool I can to get them on track. I feel like if I were to try now while they're still angry about various things it would be a waste of time. But next year the pressure will be on.
mzmolly
(52,793 posts)eom