Was the purpose of the sketchy NYT polling release to suppress Dem voter turnout this week?

[themaguffin]

On one hand, terrible polling isn't new, but as we saw in 2020, it really feels like already outdated polling methods are also being obscured with propaganda - at least that was the case in 2020 with fake polling groups being added to Real Clear Politics and 538's aggregates etc.

[FSogol]

1. Yup. Lots of polling these days seem to be little more than ratfucking.

And the NYT is the king of that.

[NCIndie]

4. Ratfucking? Sorry, I don't know that one.

[FSogol]

11. Ratfucking is an American slang term for political sabotage or dirty tricks, particularly pertaining to elections.

It was brought to public attention by Bob Woodward and Carl Bernstein in the book which chronicled their investigative reporting of the Watergate scandal, All the President's Men (1974).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ratfucking

[EYESORE 9001]

13. My fellow submariners and I invented a card game we called RF

It was loosely based on ‘hearts’. The rules were arbitrary and capricious, and winning added to the likelihood of continuing to win. If I remember correctly, the winner of a hand got to make up rules for the next round. The things we do to amuse ourselves.

[NCIndie]

17. The NY Times? Political sabotage?

Well ... ok.

[flamingdem]

52. See: "Roger Stone" ratfucker

King rat himself. "Roger Stone" "Al Gore"

[padfun]

28. Deleting this as it could be misunderstood.

nt

[Sneederbunk]

42. First of all, you get a rat.

[NCIndie]

46. Ah. Literal and not metaphorical.

[GreenWave]

61. Careful what you ask for...

[Walleye]

2. TV news should rename their programs. Like, CBS Morning Polls

[NCIndie]

3. Polling isn't perfect. That's why statistics exist.

A crappy poll is not evidence of anything but a bad sample design.

I will admit that wild conspiracies are a lot of fun to talk about.

[TwilightZone]

12. Many people also don't understand margin of error.

They see polling numbers as fixed and not within a range.

Some seem to believe that 52/48 with a 4% MOE means that the person with 52 absolutely should win.

[NCIndie]

22. It's worse than that.

In this case, self-declared Republicans or right leaning types were overrepresented in the poll. This likely skews the polling result to favor a GOP-friendly outcome. The NY Times knew this when they published the results, but they had only two choices: throw out the poll and don't report the results (flushing the expense down the toilet) or report the results, including the flawed distribution of respondents. They went with the latter, and the conspiracy theorists at DU had a field day.

We at DU supposedly support scientific results (e.g., climate change) and ridicule those who deny the election results. But every time a poll comes out that doesn't agree with their point of view, so many here run around with hair on fire screaming that the fix is in or the NY Times is guilty of political shenanigans.

Quite frankly, it's difficult to maintain respect for people who refuse to take an objective look at what's really happening.

[redqueen]

31. Did the NYT report that the results were skewed when they published?

[Think. Again.]

33. You just mentioned...

...that the Sienna poll was skewed rightward, and then knowingly published.

Is that not an objective view of what really happened?

And wouldn't you agree that knowingly publishing skewed polls would be considered 'political shenanigans'?

[NCIndie]

45. No, because they also released the distribution of the respondents.

If they had not released the distribution, then they could be accused of lousy polling and lack of disclosure. Accusing them of playing games in an attempt to manipulate the election suggests we have insights into their minds; I have no such gifts.

[Think. Again.]

48. No,....

...I don't think having suspicions of wrongdoing based on nefarious actions can be considered clairvoyance.

If it were, we would certainly have far fewer court cases going on though!

[NCIndie]

60. The level of evidence required for a court conviction is pretty high.

I think it's a good standard. The level doesn't exist here.

[Think. Again.]

64. That level of evidence rarely exists...

...without some investigation in any situation.

I have no idea what happened with that poll or how and why any media chooses their stories or decides on how to present anything.

I just think red flags should not be ignored, and I do know that sometimes those red flags mean something.

And we do know how malicious some media can be to leftwing politics.

[NCIndie]

65. I agree completely.

Unfortunately, some of our DU colleagues see this differently.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

83. Fortunately, many DUers are proactive not reactive.

[dpibel]

90. Amusingly,

I believe you don't agree at all with the poster to whom you're responding.

I could be wrong. But English is not that mutable.

And I'm pretty sure you've read it quite perfectly backward.

[dpibel]

80. On a discussion board?

You think beyond reasonable doubt is the threshold for calling bullshit on a political discussion board?

Wow.

[dpibel]

81. "Released" as in, you can get it if you dig

The story was not reported with the oversampling called out.

You really think the average reader, even of the mighty NYT, makes a practice of checking the backup data on polls?

[dpibel]

82. It does have to wear on a person

Seeing that sort of thing over and over and over again for all the whole time you've been on DU. Especially for a long-term member like you.

Hang in there!

[Kid Berwyn]

5. Couldn't have been better timed.

The subtext was clear: “Democrats, no matter how much good you do, it doesn’t matter. No one cares. You are outnumbered! Don’t bother to vote.”

[Peacetrain]

6. My guess also!!

[yankee87]

7. Right Wing Media

Let's face it, all media is RW. They always go against the Democrats.

[bigtree]

8. there isn't enough focus on the increased manipulation of these polls

...and the way news orgs immediately post self-serving articles behind their push-polling as if they're established fact and not mostly supposition.

[shrike3]

9. I don't think so.

Media narratives form, however, and the current one is, Biden is too old and should drop out. Hence, media pounced on the Siena poll because it supports the narrative. I wasn't even aware that there are apparently other polls which show Biden either tied or in the lead. Probably because no one reported it: not surprising, those polls don't support the narrative.

[MyNameIsJonas]

19. There's also other polls that show him losing.

They pounced on the NYT poll because it's the New York Times and Sienna is a very respected poll.

But there have been two other polls released the last few days that also have Biden losing in these states:

Emerson
Bloomberg/Morning Consult.

These polls were likely done because we're now a year out from the election. It's common a year out to get polls showcasing the election at this point.

The reality is that those who treat those polls as gospel probably shouldn't but those who dismiss these polls also shouldn't.

They definitely indicate what needs to improve from Biden's side to win.

And as much as his campaign will dismiss polls in public (every campaign does when they're losing), they're certainly taking things seriously and understand what their biggest problem areas are so they can focus on those heading into 2024.

[shrike3]

25. So, there's a mixture in the polls.

Why aren't they saying so?

Unfortunately, media narratives do indeed form; I worked in media and saw it happen. The current narrative is that Biden is too old. In

[Think. Again.]

34. Wouldn't a good definition of...

..."propaganda" be: "The creation of a media narrative"?

[shrike3]

39. Well. Sometimes the narrative isn't deliberate.

I would define propaganda as deliberate. Sometimes, it's just somebody throwing their weight around in the newsroom: "Everybody knows X." I can recall being told ahead of time what the story was about, and anything I found out to the contrary was cut out. And these were very minor stories. No real reason to control the narrative, yet it happened. I used to think sometimes that was it was laziness. If we know ahead of time what the story is, it's easier to package and place it, and we all go home early.

However, I'd never claim to know what goes on in elite newsrooms like the WaPost and the NY Times. Maybe in those places it's more sinister than I think.

Anybody who doesn't think there's a narrative about Biden's age isn't paying attention. Like this tidbit, from the Post: "The video begins with President Biden standing at a podium and saying, “We stand with Israel” about as forcefully and defiant as the almost-81-year-old president can sound these days." Huh?

The Ashley Biden wedding kerfuffle was the clearest sign yet. The media gets pepper-sprayed during the BLM protests, threatened during TFG rallies, and but not getting to attend a wedding is the hill they die on?

[Think. Again.]

44. Thanks....

...I certainly don't want to get paranoid, but it's seems to me with so much American money and power at stake, it would be reasonable to assume that media sources do indeed deliberately form these narratives, or at the very least, allow certain narratives to carry on without correction while also quashing certain other narratives at any chance they get.

I believe the infamous phrase 'conspiracy theory' was coined specifically to derail narratives which threaten to lead to suspicions, which in turn threaten to lead to investigations.

[shrike3]

49. Again, I'm not privy to what goes on in elite newsrooms.

But I really, really hope that all this is not deliberate. I really, really hope.

[Rebl2]

40. If Biden

is to old, so is trump and manchin-in their late 70’s.

[shrike3]

51. Oh, I agree.

There was an article over in, I think, Media Matters, which tracked how often Biden's age is mentioned as opposed to Trump's or anyone else's. The percentages weren't even close.

[Rebl2]

88. Figures

It just seems when we elect a new president, the media immediately starts in on them pointing out what they think he is doing wrong-well except for tfg. He deserved every bit of negative press he got.

[MyNameIsJonas]

43. Because the polls that show Biden leading are not well-known.

And these were state polls.

There was no mixed Pennsylvania poll results this week. Every poll released this week has Biden losing in Pennsylvania to Trump.

Bloomberg/Morning Consult has Biden down 3.

Emerson has Biden down 4

NYT/Sienna has Biden down 4

There were no PA polls released this week that showed Biden leading - so how can they talk about mixed polling?

Most the narrative this week has been on the swing states. And Biden is losing in multiple polls.

[shrike3]

50. The "Biden should drop out, Biden is too old, Democrats are nervous," narrative started long before these polls.

Anyone who doesn't know that hasn't been paying attention.

Pennsylvania's the most important state? Good to know that.

[MyNameIsJonas]

70. They started when that one poll a couple months ago that had 70% Americans who said Biden was too old.

I don't doubt it's a narrative the media is pushing but it's a narrative nonetheless and something the Biden team needs to be focused on because pretending it doesn't exist won't help. Americans believe it. Fair or not. It's the perception. I have friends who believe it. Who have flat-out told me Biden is way too old. Will they still vote for him? Probably but they're very concerned with his age.

This is an issue for Biden and no amount of ignoring it will change it. Fortunately, I think Biden CAN shift the narrative a bit by running a highly energetic campaign.

As for Pennsylvania, yeah it's one of the most important states. It has 19 electoral votes - more than any of the states Biden flipped in 2020. Georgia, Arizona and Nevada are not going to be givens in 2024. But if Biden wins Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, he wins reelection even if he loses those other three (barely, btw, as he'd win 270-268 assuming he wins Nebraska's congressional district again and Trump wins Maine's - if not, it's a 269 tie). Michigan and Wisconsin appear to be more favorable to Biden than Pennsylvania at this point. But he isn't winning reelection without Pennsylvania. That's my call. So, yes, it is important.

[shrike3]

75. Nope. Narrative started long before that.

https://www.ft.com/content/7b4b4fdb-fb8b-4556-b614-cff3035b5e07
The awkward issue of Biden’s age Jan. 2022

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/07/12/politics/joe-biden-age-presidency-what-matters/index.html
People are talking about Biden’s age again July 2022

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/3701485-biden-acknowledges-his-age-is-a-legitimate-voter-concern/
Biden acknowledges his age is a ‘legitimate’ voter concern October 2022

The above is from a one-minute google.

I don't know where you got the idea it only came up a couple of months ago. It's been a drumbeat for well over a year. They talk more about Biden's age than they do his policies.

Didn't mean to burst your bubble, but narratives like these happen all the time. I was in the biz; I saw it happen. Sometimes the stories are minor, sometimes they are not. And they do impact how people think.

And, uh, yeah, I do know Pennsylvania is important.

At least you're not insinuating Biden might have to drop out, the way some around here have.

[MyNameIsJonas]

92. lol who cares when it started?

I don't even know what you're arguing. You're all over the place.

It doesn't matter when the narrative started - or when it really started getting play. It's been consistently an issue that has dogged Biden the last few months and is only getting louder with each poor poll. Regardless when it started, or when it picked up, it's here now and it's clearly becoming the perception of the voter and it absolutely is killing his polling right now.

So, while you get lost in the weeds of when this narrative began (by citing polls that showed it was always an issue with voters - so maybe not a poll-driven narrative), the question still remains: how is Biden going to overcome it?

Because he will have to. Biden isn't getting any younger. A year from now, he'll be one year older than he is today and that narrative, unless combated, will only be worse.

I don't want Biden to drop out, as you know, but I also know that this is something the campaign HAS to deal with because it's a narrative that, unfortunately, kind of feeds on itself.

The voters have concerns about Biden's age, which is somewhat understandable since he's the oldest president in US history, especially when he takes a stumble up the stairs of Air Force One or falls while giving a speech > the media reports on the news that Americans are concerned about Biden's age > more Americans hear more negative views about Biden's age due to the media > polling picks up on that negativity even more > media reports it ... so on and so forth.

Eventually, Biden is going to have to somehow break the narrative.

I trust his team can but it's definitely something that people should take seriously and focusing on when the narrative started or how it started doesn't change the fact it's still out there and it's hurting him.

If Biden was ten years younger, I do believe his numbers would be much better than they are today. Unfortunately, he's not ten years younger. This was always going to be the biggest risk of running Biden in 2024 and so far, as much as I live him, I don't think his campaign has done a good job combating that narrative. I hope they do better. They need to do better. Fortunately for him, his opponent is Trump, who's also older. But, right or not, the perception about Trump is that he has way more energy than Biden and that's in stark contrast to 2020:

For the moment, voters also appear unpersuaded by one of the primary attack lines Trump and his party have used against Biden: the claim that, at age 77, he is simply too old for the presidency. Trump, 74, has mocked Biden’s mental acuity frequently over the last few months and his campaign has run television advertisements that cast Biden as absent-minded and inarticulate.
But three in five voters said in the poll that they disagreed with the claim that Biden was too old to be an effective president. The percentage of voters who agreed, 36%, exactly matched Trump’s existing support in the presidential race.

https://archive.md/kQoaV#selection-2287.0-2291.238

He's gotta change it. Hopefully he does. I think he can - but right now? It's a big liability.

[shrike3]

96. Darlin', you said "Biden is too old" started a couple of months ago.

I was merely pointing out that it did not. That it's been a media narrative for almost two years. It's "dogged" Biden for years. Did it impact the way voters see him? Of course, it did.

Sorry the post wasn't up to your standards. Luckily, nobody cares, including me. Oops, you care, but -- so what?

As for the rest of your palaver -- same old talking points I've read on DU and elsewhere. And, as usual, no new ideas or solutions, just blah, blah, blah. Luckily, Biden has smart people on his team, and I'm sure they are already putting plans in place. Hey, why don't you offer to volunteer? An individual of your towering intellect would be welcome, I would imagine.

[MyNameIsJonas]

97. Honey, you brought it up first.

Let me give you a little reminder:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=18445017

They certainly amplified the criticism the last few months - especially after that poll earlier this summer that showed 70% of Americans said he was too old to run.

As for ideas, hon, I never said anything in the post you originally replied to about Biden's age. You were the one that interjected it into the conversation. Here, let me remind you, Peaches:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=18444717

And these were state polls.

There was no mixed Pennsylvania poll results this week. Every poll released this week has Biden losing in Pennsylvania to Trump.

Bloomberg/Morning Consult has Biden down 3.

Emerson has Biden down 4

NYT/Sienna has Biden down 4

There were no PA polls released this week that showed Biden leading - so how can they talk about mixed polling?

Most the narrative this week has been on the swing states. And Biden is losing in multiple polls.

Can you point me to where I said anything about Biden dropping out or his being too old?

You interjected it into the conversation, Sugar. Not me.

I just pointed out in my initial reply that there were multiple bad polls. That's it. You responded with a non sequitur about his age, Angel.

But yes, the issue with his age is far more prominent today than it was a year ago because more and more polls are showing him losing and the number of Americans who are responding that his age is a liability has grown as well.

What can I offer? I'm not his campaign team. All I can say is that get him in front of crowds and frenzied rallies because that will make him seem more energetic and that will positively impact the stamina issue. Trump is out there doing a rally a day in front of thousands of supporters and that's what people see. They see he has the energy. I think Biden does too but he's going to have to get out there and show it routinely.

But I ask you: what are you offering beyond just blabbering about the narrative and when it began? As I said, Sweet pea, it doesn't matter when it began. It's absolutely intensifying and spreading. Do you think Biden should just ignore the age issue and debate about the narrative's starting point - or work to combat it?

[shrike3]

99. Aw, glad you like endearments, too.

Last edited Mon Nov 27, 2023, 11:46 PM - Edit history (1)

Makes posting so much more fun, doesn't it? Repeating them multiple times doesn't have the impact you think it does, though.

Now, can you do anything other than post the exact same talking points I have read ad nauseum on DU and elsewhere? You're not reinventing the wheel, doll. Nor are you telling me anything I don't know or haven't heard before.

A poster of your brilliance must have tons of ideas. C'mon. Share 'em. What should Biden's people do? It's above my pay grade so I am happy to let Biden's people, the experts, do their jobs. They know what I don't know. Since you seem to know everything, perhaps you should contact them forthwith.

There's something off about you. Can't quite pinpoint, but something's off.

[rso]

55. Poll

Here’s one from last week, quite well known in PA.
https://www.fandm.edu/stories/october%20franklin%20and%20Marshall%20college%20poll%20%20.html

[MyNameIsJonas]

69. Yes. That was the last poll that had Biden up in PA - but it's not from last week.

It's from two weeks ago and a poll that was conducted starting on October 11th, nearly a month ago.

It's an out of date poll.

[womanofthehills]

84. True - links to poll numbers

Some of the latest polls are now including Kennedy & West.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

[womanofthehills]

98. Here are the other polls this week

They include Kennedy & West. Unfortunately, they are similar.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

[shrike3]

100. Biden's people have their work cut out for them.

No doubt about that. But I would never count Biden out. I thought he'd be gone after the first primary debates, to be honest. Early in his term I thought, "Well, he's not going to get anything done." He ended getting transformative legislation passed. Never thought I'd agree with Joe Scarborough, but Biden's been underestimated his whole life. So, I'm not panicking yet.

[blm]

10. NYTpoll, other bogus reporting was setting path for No Labels and Manchin.

There’s BIG BUCKS to be had from a closer, contested race. Bucks they knew they wouldn’t get from lack of primary advertising.

[brooklynite]

14. Explain why they'd want to.

And do you reallyy think voters would say "I'm really in favor of reproductive rights, but a poll about someone who's not on the ballot said....."?

[dchill]

76. Horse race.

[brooklynite]

77. Where was the "horse race" in Tuesday's election?

[dchill]

85. Not everything advocated has an obvious result.

[brooklynite]

91. Not everything is a conspiracy

[dchill]

93. It's not a conspiracy.

It's just everyone doing the same thing because it's good for clicks. As Dubya said, "It's just business." No secret meetings necessary.

[brooklynite]

94. Suppressing turnout is good for clicks?

[dchill]

95. Evidently.

[Emile]

15. Bingo

[MyNameIsJonas]

16. No lol. It's very common for a slew of polls to be released a year out from an election.

It's a typical heat check for campaigns. Since we're officially a year out from the 2024 presidential election, you're going to see these types of polls as a way to showcase where things are 12 months out.

The reason it coincided with an election is because federal law stipulates elections will be held on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November. So, of course there was going to be an off-election on the pending anniversary of the 2024 election.

[themaguffin]

20. I'm referring to the 2024 polling released just prior to the elections this past Tuesday, given the "bad" numbers for

...President Biden.

[MyNameIsJonas]

41. I know what you're referring to.

I explained it. It's very common to release polls to coincidence with the presidential election being a year out. Just because the polls are bad doesn't mean it's a conspiracy.

[themaguffin]

66. No, you're missing the point

I know that polls are released a year out. Hell, they're released even before that.

[MyNameIsJonas]

71. I think you're confused by your own point.

Your post is literally asking if the NYT purposely released these polls to suppress Democratic turnout in an off-election. That's what you said. I am telling you that the NYT released this poll this week because it coincided with the US being one-year out from the 2024 presidential election. It's why there have been a slew of other swing state polls, including from Bloomberg and Emerson (that support the NYT poll) released this week.

Nothing more. Nothing less.

The reason they're bad polls is because Biden is not popular. It's that simple. It's why even Democratic-leaning polls done by places like DailyKos have his approval at the lowest of any incumbent president since H.W. Bush.

[themaguffin]

73. Ok, you missed my point

Last edited Sat Nov 11, 2023, 10:18 AM - Edit history (1)

[brooklynite]

18. The problem with conspiracy theories is that they have a tendency to grow...

Last week the theory was that the Times wanted to depress support for President Biden. Now we're speculating that the Times wants to defeat Democrats in every State, at every level, as well as stop reproductive rights.

[NCIndie]

23. +1

[Think. Again.]

35. Yep...

...I'd say the evidence tends to support those theories.

[Blue Owl]

21. That seems about right

The corporate media owners love playing those sick fuck macho head games with their shitrags...

[honest.abe]

24. The voting on Tuesday had very little to do with Biden.

It was almost entirely the effect of abortion rights.

[Tree Lady]

30. Well hopefully they will realize all the rights

they will lose if they don't vote for Biden.

[honest.abe]

67. That is precisely what we need to focus on for 2024.

[gab13by13]

58. Why didn't the poll pick that up?

[honest.abe]

68. The polling was about Biden vs Trump not about abortion rights.

[MyNameIsJonas]

72. What do you mean polls didn't pick that up?

Bashear was the favorite in Kentucky.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2023/governor/ky/kentucky_governor_cameron_vs_beshear-8119.html

The Ohio abortion vote was expected to pass:

https://www.bw.edu/news/2023/fall/10-bw-ohio-pulse-poll-shows-ohio-voters-favor-issues-1-and-2

None of what happened was a surprise if anyone followed the polls. The only real surprise was Virginia but that was because there weren't any polls done at the state district level so no one really knew what to expect.

[bucolic_frolic]

26. Any bandwagon effect is real but narrative cannot dictate an outcome

In a world where Democratic ground game turnout motivates voters to vote, polls and scare tactics are less relevant. It's an imprecise pseudo-science.

[Think. Again.]

36. Psychological manipulation...

...is far from 'pseudo-science', it has shown extremely effective results for centuries.

[calimary]

27. Wouldn't surprise me.

[DoBW]

29. pandering to the right

A. G. Sulzberger, NYT publisher, made it clear in 2018 that the company would court conservatives-- check the bio. i don't trust their polls at all. ...shit sampling

[jaxexpat]

32. Sketchy polls are designed to confuse and mislead.

They are some of the elemental building blocks necessary to harness the will of the mob.....I mean, "informed voters".

[Basic LA]

37. If you're into nutty conspiracies...

...the right-wing probably thinks the exact opposite, that the "commie" Times released the poll results purposely to spur Dems to vote. And it worked.

[LakeArenal]

38. Totally dislike posts that call polls "reality".

Then insult people who call polls bs sad or biased.

[303squadron]

47. I wonder what President Dewey thought of polls?

[CanonRay]

53. I noticed Joe "No Labels" Mancin got right out there with his announcement

to kill of the Dem victory story. With "friends" like these...

[Silent Type]

54. Doubt seriously the NYT's poll was designed to suppress Dem vote.

[gab13by13]

59. Why?

[Silent Type]

63. Why do you think so? I just don't think the polls are as nefarious as some. You might not like the poll,

it might not have everything perfect, etc., but it wasn't developed to supress the vote.

[rso]

56. Poll

Well known polling entity in PA. has Biden ahead. Also, dems swept local and statewide races on PA. this week, I’d rather win elections than worry about polls.
https://www.fandm.edu/stories/october%20franklin%20and%20Marshall%20college%20poll%20%20.html

[Kaleva]

57. Is there any evidence to support that?

I prefer to live in a world based on facts . Other people don't and that's their right.

[gab13by13]

62. Polls are a means to push propaganda.

Of course polls that show Dems behind depress the vote. People want to vote for winners. People will drop their favorite sports team and go to a winner.

The polls had Brashear a dead heat and he wins by 6 points, there is no excuse for that.

Why do the vast majority of the polls overestimate the Magat candidate, I can't think of any polls recently that overestimated the Democrat. What is the explanation for that? The polls should be missing 50/50.

[brooklynite]

74. Take a look at the polling summary

All but one had him winning, by up to 8%.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/governor/2023/kentucky/

[Celerity]

87. +1

[58Sunliner]

79. Yep.

[Takket]

86. "to suppress Dem voter turnout this week"

I think you answered your own question.

[Celerity]

89. No.

I usually reject CT and I am choosing to do that now.