"There's one thing these polls are good for, and that is making sure that nobody in the Biden campaign..."

[brooklynite]

"...takes any segment of our vote for granted" --Claire McCaskill.

Hasn't anyone informed her that all the polls are fake and there's nothing to worry about?

[MyNameIsJonas]

1. Not fake but maybe as reliable as that recession you kept saying was almost certain to happen.

[brooklynite]

3. I din't say a recession was coming; I reported what my financial planner said.

And what my wife (a tax professional) occurred on.

As for polls being "unreliable", that seems to be the same thing. Either the electorate TODAY is evenly split between Biden and Trump or they're not.

[MyNameIsJonas]

12. Yes, you're reporting multiple times about this pending recession.

I think last time your wife told you she had heard 70% chance within the next few months or something.

Again: not reliable.

Even more so a year out from an election. Polls are not fake. They're not made up. But they're not something anyone should particularly worry about this far from an election and really only seem to be out there at this stage to feed a narrative.

Kinda like all those reminders over the last 13 months or so that we're literally entering a recession any day now.

Again: not fake but not reliable claims, either. Polls should not be taken as anything but extreme hypotheticals that can be easily manipulated solely because voters aren't engaged in presidential politics at this stage (at least at the level we'll see in six months) and can get away with saying a lot. That doesn't get into how difficult it's becoming to actually create LV models that are accurate and predictive of what the actual electorate will look like in 12 months. Especially since the election isn't today and never will be today so you can't create the same conditions that happen in the lead up to an actual election. No amount of polling is going to do that.

So, yes, unreliable.

[BannonsLiver]

18. Bravo

I too remember the hopeful predictions of a recession.

[brooklynite]

21. Define "hopeful"

[gab13by13]

2. Polls are one of the main sources of propaganda,

denying that is a big mistake.

[brooklynite]

5. They're not propaganda if the findings are true.

Are you saying that they're not?

[Fiendish Thingy]

4. McCaskill is one of the last people Dems should take advice from

After Carville and Axelrod.

[brooklynite]

6. Translation: "let's ignore anyone who says things we don't agree with"

[Fiendish Thingy]

7. Denial, or critical thinking? Let's focus on the stakes, not the odds

MacCaskill’s warning is based on accepting polls a year from an election, overweighted for Republicans, as accurate predictions of the sentiment of the electorate next November.

What segment of the electorate is she warning is being ignored? White, uneducated, “economically anxious” boomers who hang out in swing state diners?

Polls showing a 20+ point swing in voter sentiment, especially in subgroups of POC and young voters, towards Trump, should be ignored, especially when compared to actual election results over the past 6-12 months in places like VA, OH, KY and KS.

If the NYT suddenly released a poll showing the majority of voters supported a national ban on abortion with no exceptions, would you believe it?

Remember the flood of flawed, shitty polls in October 2022 predicting a Red Tsunami? The also predicted 20+% swings in voter sentiment towards Republicans. Accepting those polls as accurate, and incorporating them into 538’s prediction model cost Nate Silver his job.

2024 will likely be another close election in the EC, decided by the turnout of POC and Young voters, just as it was in 2020.

[brooklynite]

8. 'MacCaskill's warning is based on accepting polls a year from an election"

(nb: spelling counts).

McCaskill is saying that the polls today reflect a voter sentiment TODAY which presents a challenge for the Biden campaign. I assume you're not suggesting that the campaign do nothing on the grounds that voter sentiment a year from now MIGHT be different?

I'll ask you the same question I've asked others, with getting an answer. If your claim is that the polling data is oversampling Republicans, what is the ACTUAL vote margin if people voted today?

[Fiendish Thingy]

9. Spelling doesn't alter the point of my post

Did the Obama campaign do a 180 in 2011 when polls showed they were losing to Rick Perry, Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Herman Cain, as well as Romney?

Did they completely change their campaign messaging and strategy?

Just as the Obama campaign didn’t know in 2011, knowing the actual margin of voter sentiment today is close to impossible, but actual elections provide some clues.

Most voters simply don’t pay attention to the news beyond the soundbites and headlines, at least not until the weeks before the election. It’s only gotten worse in the past decade, with most folks getting their “news” from Facebook and TikTok.

The economy continues to improve, and hopefully more folks will come to realize that (somebody’s buying all those Taylor Swift records and tickets, and it ain’t just Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos) over the coming year.

Dobbs, fascism and Bidenomics should all be part of relentless messaging combined with voter registration and GOTV. There is absolutely no need to “move to the center” to deflect accusations of “Socialism!” by a crazy man from a crazy party.

What would you have Biden do differently to heed McCaskill’s “warning”?

[brooklynite]

11. Who said anything about "moving to the center" or "do a 180"?

Neither is required to acknowledge and address the concerns that the voters have. Age (and perceived vigor) is one item. The cost of living is another.

[Elessar Zappa]

13. And how exactly do we address his alleged age and vigor problem?

[Fiendish Thingy]

14. What would you have the Biden campaign do differently?

Regardless of what the Biden campaign does, it’s the media’s response that is beyond their control.

If the media sticks with “Old & Odds” reporting, what, short of Trump’s felony conviction or death, would change the narrative?

I mean, Joe could challenge Kristen Welker to a one handed push up contest, but that would only dominate coverage for one news cycle…then what?

[shrike3]

10. I agree with her. Don't take anything for granted.

[TheProle]

15. Joe Biden is facing a near-historic deficit for an incumbent

Take a look at recent national surveys from CBS News/YouGov, CNN/SSRS, Fox News, Marquette University Law School and Quinnipiac University. All five are high-quality polls that meet CNN standards for publication.

All five give Trump an advantage of 2 to 4 points over Biden among registered or likely voters. On their own, none of these data points mean too much. Trump’s lead in all of them is within the margin of error. Averaged together, though, they paint a picture of an incumbent with a real problem.

Over the past 80 years, incumbents have, on average, led their eventual challengers by a little more than 10 points about a year out from the election. This includes nearly every incumbent for whom we have polling since Franklin Roosevelt in 1943.

It includes Barack Obama against Mitt Romney in November 2011. This is notable because a number of Democrats have tried to dismiss the current data showing Biden in trouble by saying that Obama had been behind at this point, too. That simply isn’t true.

In fact, the lone incumbent to be behind in the polls at this point is the man Biden succeeded and is likely to face again: Trump, who trailed Biden by about 10 points in November 2019.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/18/politics/joe-biden-donald-trump-election-2024/index.html

[Fiendish Thingy]

16. There is a vast difference between "taking any segment of our vote for granted"

And wasting precious resources on voters who are unreliable at best when it comes to supporting Dems.

Do you spend a dollar on a voter (white uneducated boomer) who will definitely vote, but is, at best, a 50/50 (and more often 30-40%) chance at voting Dem?

Or do you spend a dollar ensuring a young voter, with a proven track record (in actual elections, regardless of recent polls) of supporting Dems 2 to 1 over Republicans, is registered and motivated to get to the polls?

[Qutzupalotl]

17. If the polls do not model increased turnout for women,

they will be inaccurate. Women are PISSED OFF about the Dobbs decision and are FAR more likely to vote than men. That's why we won big this cycle in Kentucky, Virginia, Pennsylvania, right after a “Biden is in trouble” poll. In fact, the loss we took in Mississippi was likely from the blue wave not turning out for an anti-choice Democrat.

It's raining? Things are expensive? Maybe dudes won't stand in line. But Dobbs hangs over women like a sword. They can't forget and they won't forgive.

[SoFlaBro]

20. Exactly, women are going to worry about what the fuck happens half a world away much less than their own crotch.

That's what matters more.

[SoFlaBro]

19. Why would you say all polls are fake? What are you talking about?