Does Anyone Here Think That Tr**p Will Not Wind Up As The Nominee Of The Repug Party?.....

[global1]

Is there a chance that this might happen?

[malaise]

1. He will not even be on the tickets/t

[NCIndie]

2. He will be the nominee

[JT45242]

3. Only if incarcerated by the convention

Or dead....

If loose cannon is able to delay and screw things up, none of the criminal trials will be over in time.

Maybe the stress and cheeseberders will make him stroke out.

Otherwise, he is anointed at the RNC convention on July 17.

[brush]

15. SC Smith's trial in DC will be over.

[bluestarone]

36. Just saying, i'm not 100% certain you're right about this.

Bad feeling about appeals AFTER the courts decide anything.

[brush]

37. Judge Chutkan is not playing. She's not the incompetent loose Cannon in the docs case.

She's stated she's determined to get that case to trial.

[bluestarone]

38. Yea i feel the same. BUT

The future appeals will be lost ,BUT the DELAY is that killer for me! The FN courts just sit on them for, seems like months then rule against this turd! (i believe the appeals should be answered in weeks vs. months).

[MOMFUDSKI]

54. It is the delay and the appeals that are bad.

This is all on Garland sitting on his ass because WHY?

[bluestarone]

56. I DO NOT blame Garland

Not in the least bit. Delays are killers but not because of Garland.

[LudwigPastorius]

4. Look at the GOP in Congress.

Trump's been out of power for almost three years and they're still scared shitless of him and his followers.

If Trump wins the primaries, the RNC wouldn't have the balls to name someone else as the nominee.

[Polybius]

7. Well how could they?

If Trump wins the primaries, he becomes the nominee, whether the RNC likes it or not.

[LudwigPastorius]

13. They make the convention rules, and whoever makes those rules can control who is nominated.

But, as I said, it won't happen.

[stopdiggin]

26. by ignoring every delegation sent to the convention .. ?

It's virtually never happened ( in the history of the modern parties). I think that's putting 'theoretical' on a completely different plane ..

[LudwigPastorius]

33. Yes, it won't happen.

There are waivers in place that can suspend convention rules if the RNC determines that it is "in the best interests of the Republican party".

But, they won't do it because they are afraid of the YeeHaadists.

[RKP5637]

53. Sometimes I think the GOP does not care who is president as long as it's a republican

and they feel they can use them to gain more power. They don't give a damn about the country or the people. They would support an authoritarian overthrow of the US if they figure they as individuals can have a good slice of power.

[Silent Type]

5. Definitely possible, although I thought same in 2016. Biggest question is do we have a better chance against trump

or say Haley? I think we have a better chance against trump, but it would be a long 4 years under that POS.

[Polybius]

12. I think any of the younger candidates would be trouble, except Vivek Ramaswamy

Trump will likely be the easiest to beat.

[brush]

18. Agreed. But the RNC/Republican powers that be won't dare deny trump...

if he wins the primary battle.

As for the others, Haley is a woman, and we kinda know pretty well how that ranks with repugs. Christie is formidable but not popular, DeSantis is done, especially after how Gov. Newsom of California dismantled him in their debate. Hutchinson, no, he's hardly registering.

Ramiswamy...ugh. Nobody likes him but his mother, and she's just as guilty as he is in their pump-and-dump, get rich scheme.

IMO Biden beats them all.

[Polybius]

22. Well they can't at that point

If Trump wins the primary, he's the nominee. The RNC can tell voters to vote for Biden, but Trump would still be the Republican nominee if he wins all or most of the primaries.

[womanofthehills]

42. Haley could be a problem as her poll numbers are better than Trumps against Biden

She is such a war mongerer- she will appeal to many. She now has Koch and the head of Home Depot supporting her. She appears to be the backup if Trump doesn’t run.

[rso]

52. Haley

I read something the other day where the founder of Home Depot was actually sticking with trump.

[duckworth969]

62. No disrespect intended to anyone including Haley, but...

Haley may not be white enough for the typical MAGA type.

If that statement offends anyone, I apologize.

[FakeNoose]

6. I believe SCOTUS can legally eliminate the possibility of his candidacy

But whether they will or not, is anyone's guess.

If it's up to the Repukes to select him in the primary, yes indeed Chump will be their candidate.

[flying_wahini]

8. I think it will be Nikki. She's the one we should be worried about.

Trump won’t get the ticket.

[Qutzupalotl]

31. Certainly possible, but if she's the nominee,

I think a lot of Trump die-hards will stay home. Many of those are people who never voted before 2016, and weren't on anyone's radar. She will get some of these but not all.

To her credit, she won't duck a debate. But considering that she speaks out of both sides of her mouth about abortion, I think Biden will be able to extract a statement from her in a debate that will energize women against her, even to vote against the first woman president. They know the wrong woman will set back the cause of bodily autonomy, especially under this court..

[DFW]

9. I have been saying that for many months now.

Some agree. Most don't, but their numbers are slowly starting to dwindle.

If he doesn't recognize his son's name in a live interview a few more times, the confidence in his nomination might start to erode even faster than I thought it would.

[mucifer]

10. I think the next president will be

a right wing republican who is t trump who convinces independents they are a moderate.

[Towlie]

11. I'm more interested in whether he'll be convicted and appropriately sentenced.

 
←

Once he's locked up it should be settled once and for all, and it's not only the question of who's president but also the question of whether we actually have a justice system.

[Silent3]

19. Even if he's convicted before the election...

...he probably wouldn't be sentenced and jailed (if jail is even in the cards) for another year or two. He'll at the very least be given the Steve Bannon treatment of remaining free while an endless appeals process plays out.

He SHOULD be treated like a dangerous criminal and fight his appeals from a jail cell like any other dangerous criminal has to, but I strongly doubt that will happen.

[duckworth969]

63. Cannon sentencing for Mar-a-Lago case concerns me

Hopefully, there are federal guidelines.

[Silent3]

14. Only his sudden death will prevent that

His conviction on felonies certain won't. No new scandal or revelation about Trump likely has any power to stop him.

[wiggs]

16. Won't be on the ticket, except insofar as he will have cut a deal to endorse one of the ambitious

candidates (Haley) in exchange for pardons and a few billion dollars and investigations into his enemies. So kind of on the ticket but not officially.

He can't risk another loss, psychologically or legally. He will throw his considerable weight behind someone else to ostensibly unite the magas and the maga adjacent. (Unless he has made a deal with foreign countries a la Reagan to disrupt foreign stability just before the elections)

His support will continue to erode as Biden starts to campaign, Trump looks worse and worse, trials expose new info, and former Trump cabinet members, conservative leaders, and leading dems start to bluntly share the truth and warn the public.

[stopdiggin]

28. boy .. he sure isn't looking like somebody

that is planning on anointing another player ...
I see it much more likely that he drives the bus, screaming incoherent rage, off the cliff ...

[wiggs]

64. definite possibility. But he has no leverage if he isn't leading the primary race. nt

[mcar]

17. No

[czarjak]

20. Predicting the future is hard.

Based on history, that would be the way to bet though.

[GuppyGal]

21. There is always a chance but if it shakes out how it's going he's gonna be it and we will WIN !!!!! nt

[BlueTsunami2018]

23. Who's going to beat him?

Unless he drops dead, he’ll be the nominee.

What’s worse is he’s got a 50/50 chance to win again.

[FlyingPiggy]

24. I don't think he will be. I've heard Koch pivoted to Nikki Haley.

[Prairie Gates]

25. If Haley overperforms in Iowa and Trump's polls look worse in a Biden match-up

He may be in trouble. Haley's argument should be "Do you want an easy win or do you want to roll the dice again with Trump?" This is why Trump and Trump supporters have been absolutely flooding the zone with an inevitability argument. The moment it seems that Haley is a safer bet in the general, his support could collapse. Strong showings in Iowa and NH for Haley could cause a sudden, catastrophic collapse of Trump's support.

[stopdiggin]

29. this is about the only (coherent) explanation

(short of death or rehabilitation) that sees someone other than Trump ...
And this too supposes an almost startling sea change of support in Iowa. (something that we are not seeing now)

[Prairie Gates]

61. Primaries are sometimes nonlinear surprises

And once a trend stars running against you it snowballs. I agree there’s almost nothing now suggesting it, but even a high teens showing for Haley in Iowa would be overperforming, I think. If she hits 20s then the ground might start tilting from under Trump.

[LudwigPastorius]

35. "...could cause a sudden, catastrophic collapse of Trump's support."

Doubtful. There are dead-enders over 150 years later who still believe "the South's gonna rise again!".

No one is going to de-program 50 to 60 million Trump cultists between now and the primaries.

[Groundhawg]

27. IT is likely to happen unfortunatly.

[Turbineguy]

30. Unless they find somebody worse, yes.

[stopdiggin]

32. without a death, or virtual dehabilitation ...

I don't see how the GOP base could be any clearer in their intentions!
It seems to be an absolute lock - unless he starts soiling himself in public or something.

[MiniMe]

34. I tried convincing myself that nobody would vote for tRump in 2016. That didn't exactly work

tRump lost in 2020 because his failure on the Corona virus was fresh in everybody's mind. Unfortunately, too many people have forgotten what a bad President tRump was.

[ProfessorGAC]

41. While I Understand Your Point...

...I don't think '24 can be compared to '16.
TFG was, to a lot of the electorate, a celebrity, "successful businessman", and an unknown quantity.
Many figured, "Why not give him a shot?"
He's now KNOWN to be a tax cheat, security risk, a liar & a whiner. Plus, he lost.
The middle who changed their mind in '20 is highly unlikely to buy the Big Lie. They will believe that the guy they voted for was the legit winner. And, let's remember that said middle was over 4 million voters.
I'm not about to predict the future here, but there are hard data that makes next year extremely different from '16.

[womanofthehills]

47. What makes it extremely different

Those under 30/40 are getting their news from the internet- not tv. They are getting their news from podcasts & alternative news programs.

The younger generation is way less pro war than the older. Cable news is posting very few horiffic war images while the kids are being flooded with images of dead and dying Palestinian children and communicating with young people direct from Palestine on Twitter.

[ProfessorGAC]

59. And?

You think young people think TFG is a pacifist?

[dalton99a]

39. Trump will be their nominee.

Incarcerated or not (likely not)

[Emile]

40. No way, he has one foot in the jail house.

The only reason he is leading the Republican candidates now is because the GOP thinks they're owning the libs. Once the primaries start, reality will set in and another candidate will be leading the Republican field.

[MOMFUDSKI]

43. I call Nicky.

He will not be the nominee.

[usedtobedemgurl]

44. I don't think he will be....

I used to think he was the only one they would consider. I believe the big backers looking elsewhere is a telling sign. That, plus the poll coming out saying he should not run, gives me the greatest hope.

I can see all the backers getting behind someone else. They choose who will run. Drump gets mad and peels off a whole lot of their side. Then, we win.

He already threatened them if they have another debate. That debate is coming. He is not one to back down. We are definitely living in interesting times.

[Xavier Breath]

45. Barring death or incapacitation, of course he'll be the nominee.

The indictments only made his supporters dig in their heels even more, not to mention digging into their wallets. 'He's a victim of the deep state and must be defended' or some such nonsense. His supporters will never see the light. We can forget them having some come-to-Jesus moment with reality.

[marble falls]

46. Not a fucking chance in Hell.

[sarcasmo]

48. American oligarchs want Nikki Haley, and Trump will Not be 2024 GOP nominee.

[Fiendish Thingy]

49. Right now, he's got a lock on the nomination

But a lot can happen between now and the convention in August…

If they’re talking about this on Canadian media, it’s certainly a topic of discussion here:

https://apple.news/AOFmKh7KAR6KockDRYkYA4Q

[WarGamer]

50. I'll take Powerball odds before Trump not being the GOP nominee.

[claudette]

51. Only if he's

convicted of a crime and goes to prison. Magats have settled for the worst candidate in history.

[doc03]

55. He will be the nominee and won't go to jail either, buckle up. nt

[keithbvadu2]

57. In the long list of GOP candidates of 2016, Trump was the only one who could not beat Hillary.

But he did.

I knew a WWll vet who hated Trump in the primary runoffs.

But he hated Hillary worse.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

58. tRump lost to Hillary

But he won the Electoral College.

[Willto]

60. Sorry..

but if you think Trump isn't going to be the Republican nominee then it's time for the bartender to cut you off and stop serving you drinks. Blood alcohol levels that high are dangerous. His minions would still vote for him in the primaries if he shot a nun on live TV and their numbers are easily enough to win him the nomination.

The Republican party leaders are not going to restrict him from being their candidate either because they know it would be political suicide. A big chunk of his cult would sit out the election in protest leading to a general election disaster for them. No way in hell they are going to suffer that kind of ass kicking in order to take a moral stand against Trump. Are you kidding me? Have you guys been watching the same Republican party that I have for the last decade?

He will be the nominee and sadly it will be another close race with the fate of our democracy on the line.