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markpkessinger

(8,928 posts)
Fri Dec 8, 2023, 12:48 PM Dec 2023

Foreign Affairs: Israel's Failed Bombing Campaign in Gaza

Superb article from Foreign Affairs magazine:

Israel’s Failed Bombing Campaign in Gaza
Collective Punishment Won’t Defeat Hamas
By Robert A. Pape
December 6, 2023

Since October 7, Israel has invaded northern Gaza with some 40,000 combat troops and pummeled the small area with one of the most intense bombing campaigns in history. Nearly two million people have fled their homes as a result. More than 15,000 civilians (including some 6,000 children and 5,000 women) have been killed in the attacks, according to Gaza’s Hamas-run Ministry of Health, and the U.S. State Department has suggested that the true toll may be even higher. Israel has bombed hospitals and ambulances and wrecked about half of northern Gaza’s buildings. It has cut off virtually all water, food deliveries, and electricity generation for Gaza’s 2.2 million inhabitants. By any definition, this campaign counts as a massive act of collective punishment against civilians.

Even now, as Israeli forces push deeper into southern Gaza, the exact purpose of Israel’s approach is far from clear. Although Israeli leaders claim to be targeting Hamas alone, the evident lack of discrimination raises real questions about what the government is actually up to. Is Israel’s eagerness to shatter Gaza a product of the same incompetence that led to the massive failure of the Israeli military to counter Hamas’s attack on October 7, the plans for which ended up in the hands of Israeli military and intelligence officials more than a year earlier? Is wrecking northern Gaza and now southern Gaza a prelude to sending the territory’s entire population to Egypt, as proposed in a “concept paper” produced by the Israeli Intelligence Ministry?

Whatever the ultimate goal, Israel’s collective devastation of Gaza raises deep moral problems. But even judged purely in strategic terms, Israel’s approach is doomed to failure—and indeed, it is already failing. Mass civilian punishment has not convinced Gaza’s residents to stop supporting Hamas. To the contrary, it has only heightened resentment among Palestinians. Nor has the campaign succeeded in dismantling the group ostensibly being targeted. Fifty-plus days of war show that while Israel can demolish Gaza, it cannot destroy Hamas. In fact, the group may be stronger now than it was before.

Israel is hardly the first country to err by placing excessive faith in the coercive magic of airpower. History shows that the large-scale bombing of civilian areas almost never achieves its objectives. Israel would have been better off had it heeded these lessons and responded to the October 7 attack with surgical strikes against Hamas’s leaders and fighters in lieu of the indiscriminate bombing campaign it has chosen. But it is not too late to shift course and adopt a viable alternative strategy for achieving lasting security, an approach that would drive a political wedge between Hamas and the Palestinians rather than bringing them closer together: take meaningful, unilateral steps toward a two-state solution.
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yagotme

(4,136 posts)
2. Really??
Fri Dec 8, 2023, 01:11 PM
Dec 2023
Mass civilian punishment has not convinced Gaza’s residents to stop supporting Hamas.


Hmm. I've been led to believe that Gazan's DON'T support Hamas. Interesting.

markpkessinger

(8,928 posts)
6. I believe the poinjt the author was making . . .
Fri Dec 8, 2023, 02:52 PM
Dec 2023

. . . is that the Israeli response will, liikely as not, solidify, rather than undermine, support for Hamas.

yagotme

(4,136 posts)
7. In a roundabout way, yes.
Fri Dec 8, 2023, 02:58 PM
Dec 2023

The point I was making, in case you missed it, is that it has been said here that Gazan's don't support Hamas, but this author states that they do. Just wondering who's right...

markpkessinger

(8,928 posts)
9. I believe the point people have made with regard to support for Hamas . . .
Fri Dec 8, 2023, 03:01 PM
Dec 2023

. . Has been that many -- and probably a majority -- of Gazans are opposed to Hamas -- not that all Gazans are.

yagotme

(4,136 posts)
12. And I have seen posts where the poster believed NO Gazan's supported Hamas.
Fri Dec 8, 2023, 03:08 PM
Dec 2023

Obviously wrong.

 

brush

(61,033 posts)
3. Thoughts to ponder in this post: Does Israel needs to boot the Netanyau/Likud admin now?
Fri Dec 8, 2023, 01:29 PM
Dec 2023

Last edited Fri Dec 8, 2023, 02:49 PM - Edit history (2)

Is it incompetence?
The following below is just a snip from the OP.

"Is Israel’s eagerness to shatter Gaza a product of the same incompetence that led to the massive failure of the Israeli military to counter Hamas’s attack on October 7, the plans for which ended up in the hands of Israeli military and intelligence officials more than a year earlier?"


Kick the admin to the curb and let Bibi face the music for the corruption/court finagling charges.

FBaggins

(28,707 posts)
5. "(O)ne of the most intense bombing campaigns in history." ???
Fri Dec 8, 2023, 01:49 PM
Dec 2023

The author is either disconnected from reality or history... perhaps both.

EX500rider

(12,655 posts)
18. Sure...if you were totally ignorant of the scale of the bombing of Germany & Japan
Fri Dec 8, 2023, 07:41 PM
Dec 2023

More Germans were killed in one night in Dresden then in a month of IDF bombing of Gaza



And the Gazan casualties would be a rounding error on a bad day in Japan

Just one raid on one day:

.....on the afternoon of 9 March 346 B-29s left the Marianas bound for Tokyo. They began to arrive over the city at 2:00 am Guam time on 10 March, and 279 bombers dropped 1,665 tons of bombs.[105] The raid caused a massive conflagration that overwhelmed Tokyo's civil defenses and destroyed 16 square miles (41 km2) of buildings, representing seven percent of the city's urban area.[106] The Tokyo police force and fire department estimated that 83,793 people were killed during the air raid, another 40,918 were injured and just over a million lost their homes; postwar estimates of deaths in this attack have ranged from 80,000 to 100,000

 

brush

(61,033 posts)
10. I dunno, in the short period, small area and dense population, it's pretty intense.
Fri Dec 8, 2023, 03:05 PM
Dec 2023

What do you say about the incompetence being related to same admin's incompetence in dismissing a year-old intel report of a coming attack, and then completely failing to detect/move to combat the Oct. 7 attack?

And it was reported yesterday on MSNBC that it took many hours for ANY response at all from the army to help Israelis while the attack was going on...from 5 to as much as 20 hours before help arrived.

Talk about asleep at the wheel...

FBaggins

(28,707 posts)
14. The author made no such qualifying statements
Fri Dec 8, 2023, 06:07 PM
Dec 2023

If it had been "for a peewee football game in a state that isn't Texas... this is one of the largest crowds in history!"... then that could make sense. But he effectively claimed that it was one of the largest crowds in history.

But there were individual sorties in WWII involving hundreds of bombers and several hundred tons of bombs.

Current estimates say that Israel has dropped 20k tons on Gaza. In Vietnam, the US dropped several million tons. Dessert Storm is well down the list... but we dropped about four times as many bombs in less time.

 

Proudfoot

(29 posts)
11. Prof. Pape
Fri Dec 8, 2023, 03:08 PM
Dec 2023

You do realize that Professor Pape literally wrote the textbook on bombing campaigns, right? Bombing to Win

FBaggins

(28,707 posts)
13. So it's an integrity issue rather than a competence issue?
Fri Dec 8, 2023, 05:57 PM
Dec 2023

I suppose I can live with that.

As for the prof - it's more than a stretch to call his work the "textbook on bombing campaigns". It was a useful critique of the use of military force (particularly air power) to achieve coercive ends... but the notion that airpower alone is rarely decisive isn't really new - and obviously isn't IDF's strategy. Outside that already-accepted maxim, the work isn't all that well thought of among the actual experts.

 

Proudfoot

(29 posts)
15. Bombing to Win
Fri Dec 8, 2023, 07:05 PM
Dec 2023

"Now, as the airpower text most widely read by national security practitioners, Pape’s book is clearly a literary success."

https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/Wild-Blue-Yonder/Article-Display/Article/3177766/bombing-to-win-papes-denial-in-the-nuclear-age-and-the-russia-ukraine-context/

So, having been shown your assumptions are 100% wrong, your response is to question the integrity of the experts.

FBaggins

(28,707 posts)
16. "...however, the usefulness of Pape's argument ends there"
Fri Dec 8, 2023, 07:09 PM
Dec 2023

Same review

So, having been shown your assumptions are 100% wrong, your response is to question the integrity of the experts.

Your appeal to (bad) authority fallacy is noted and rejected. The magnitude of other bombing campaigns is not exactly a secret available only to academics. And the data proved the statement incorrect. The current boming campaign is intense enough (given the small scope of Gaza) to support Pape's position in the book that bombing alone can't achieve some strategic objectives. But that's not the debate (nor is he the only one to make it... nor is it what is happening in Gaza since there are substantial troops on the ground)

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