'Trump isn't going to win': Analyst makes case that major 'MAGA defeat' is a certainty

[Tom of Temecula]

Buried deep in an analysis of all of the reasons why Donald Trump will go down to defeat against President Joe Biden in the 2024 presidential election, a columnist suggested that history is not on his side and that the MAGA movement is winding down.

Writing for the Atlantic, Hussein Ibish of the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington explained that there are multiple roadblocks that will deny Trump a second presidency, including his extensive list of criminal trials that are casting a cloud over his campaign, his disparaging comments about the military that are resurfacing, and the fact that he is not the man he was in 2016 when he won his surprising victory over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

More to the point, he added, has been the string of losses at the polls suffered by MAGA candidates he has endorsed and a general dissatisfaction with the Republican Party overall.

"Trump has a strong record of electoral losses with his 2016 upset, which apparently surprised even him, as the lone exception," Ibish wrote. "His party suffered the standard midterm defeat in 2018. Then he lost the 2020 election. Then Republicans lost control of the Senate after Georgia’s runoff in early 2021. Then his party was denied the standard midterm victory in 2022, barely eking out a four-vote House majority thanks in large part to his own handpicked, election-denying candidates, almost all of whom lost in competitive races."

That led him to conclude, "There is no obvious reason that 2024 should constitute a sudden break from this pattern of MAGA defeat."

https://www.rawstory.com/trump-maga-2024/

[Irish_Dem]

1. Putin/GOP tricks are the wild card.

Both are desperate.

The GOP needs to "win" the election to avoid consequences for their many crimes.
Putin must win the Ukraine war.

[sop]

4. Putin and his bag of dirty tricks worry me the most.

Putin has to win in Ukraine. If he loses it's curtains for him in Russia; his political life literally hangs in the balance. Trump being elected is the only way he remains in power. He sees a second Biden term as an existential threat, and everyone knows how Putin deals with personal threats.

[Irish_Dem]

5. Yes exactly.

Putin is waging war on the US and has done so for decades.
We can see that he has installed his puppets throughout the US government.
Just like he has done in Europe, all the far right extremists everywhere across
democratic countries.

Yes if he loses the Ukraine war it is most likely curtains for Putin.

Both Trump and Putin are desperate.
Trump is facing serious legal and financial problems which all go away once he is "elected."
All of Putin's problems also go away if Trump is in the WH.

[PatSeg]

14. And desperate men with power

can be extremely dangerous. That is why it is so scary when such men have nuclear weapons. If Putin's whole world is falling apart, I don't think he'd hesitate to launch nuclear missiles.

[Irish_Dem]

15. Psychopaths backed into a corner are very dangerous.

However Putin very much wants Russia to be a global superpower, so nuking the world
doesn't seem like a good way to achieve that goal. He also knows Russia would be destroyed if
he used strategic nukes against a democratic country.

That said I do think he would consider using smaller tactical nukes in Ukraine.

And of course he is going to ramp up his covert psy-ops war against the US.
Like he did with the Hamas-Israel war and propaganda.
He effectively got liberals divided overnight and at each others throats.
There will probably be more of this.
Many of the controversial issues in the US are manufactured and stirred up by Russian and Chinese bots.
With the help of the GOP of course.

[PatSeg]

16. Putin is sinister, yet brilliant

in a perverse way. I do believe if he were backed into a corner with no way out, he wouldn't care what he blew up.

[Irish_Dem]

19. Yes. He is truly the epitome an evil maniacal genius.

Pat I totally agree with you.

If Putin is ever backed into a corner with absolutely no way out, yes he would blow up as much as he could in retaliation.

The good news is that Putin most likely has no intention of being placed in that situation.
He is one of the richest and smartest men on the planet, ex KGB to his core. It is certain he
has more than one escape and extraction plan.

[PatSeg]

20. Though I think he is very smart,

his invasion of Ukraine has been a debacle. His hubris overshadowed his good sense. Usually he is good at playing the long game, but this time he was reckless and impulsive. It might have had something to do with his health issues. Maybe he thought he wouldn't live long enough for the long game and wanted to expand the Russian empire before he dies.

[Irish_Dem]

21. Yes but I think it is much more complex.

Yes Putin's judgment was poor, and yes it could be related to his health problems and a mental decline.

But I also think he is a victim of his own fascist, totalitarian regime. And also geopolitical forces.

Putin uses the same loyalist model of government as the GOP favors.
The only thing that matters is total personal loyalty to dear leader.
Any dissension results in people being too close to windows in tall buildings.
This means people lie to the leader all the time and tell him what he wants to hear.

We know his intelligence advisors were afraid to tell him the truth.
There were videos of people trying to tactfully speak honestly and it did not go well.

Additionally Putin is very corrupt, he is the richest man in the world. He did this by
basically stealing most of of the resources and cash belonging to the Russian people and the country.

Putin allowed some of his loyal generals and advisors to be corrupt as well.
But he probably didn't realize how corrupt they were, it appears the Russian generals
stole many military resources and cash too.

We know corruption also impacted the invasion in other ways. Putin had planned carefully with
the help of Russian intelligence assets to bribe and install high level Russian puppets in Kiev.
When Putin rolled into town they would all take charge and we know what would happen to Zelensky.
But instead the Russian puppets all pocketed the bribes and left town immediately before the
invasion.

In terms of geopolitical pressure, Putin and Xi are allies and both want to be global superpowers,
Putin will take the west, Xi the Pacific. Both appear to have plans to demonstrate the necessary regional control
by invading a nearby democratic country. First Putin would invade Ukraine, it would take a couple of weeks max.
Then China would invade Taiwan, the same exact plan Putin had and the plan is about three or four
days. So Putin was feeling that pressure to keep the bargain made with China.

[PatSeg]

23. Yes, that all makes sense

Putin is the kind of leader that Trump would be if he could hold on to power, though not nearly as smart or strategic as Putin.

[Irish_Dem]

25. Yes

Trump has an animal cunning, and street smarts.
He has a charisma that appeals to quite a few people.
And he's a good con artist. He can read the room and
know how to manipulate people in a crass, vulgar way.

Trump to a large extent is being used as a clown front man who is a good con artist.
But there's absolutely no way Trump has the brains, education, or interest in how to manipulate
the US government, and understand the levers of power, etc. That's all being done for him.

This is the man advisers reported that they had to draw pictures, and keep everything very short and
very simple. There is no way this man has been capable of making the kind of plans that are being made on his behalf.

But yes few people are in the same category as Putin who is extremely smart, cunning, ruthless
and knows how to wield power and maintain it. Oh yes he has long-term strategic planning abilities.
Like Trump, Putin has quite a sadistic cruel streak. Trump doesn't even match him in that regard either.

[PatSeg]

77. That is all spot-on

[bucolic_frolic]

48. Just like we did post-WWII

We wanted democracy in Eastern Europe. What we got, mostly, was Soviet puppet governments. Free elections were anything but.

[Irish_Dem]

49. Yep.

I can't help but think of all the Cold War games we played.
All the covert CIA activities. We thought we were immune
from the those same tactics being used against us.

[elleng]

37. DAMN, sorry you're right.

So many evildoers around the globe will do us ALL in.

And goes along perfectly, with polling, including White House's internal polling discussed here yesterday.

[Irish_Dem]

39. Yes the US has been naive and gullible.

We may have a painful learning curve as another DUer put it the other day.

The global autocrats are serious about taking power away from western democracies.

[elleng]

40. We seem to specialize in naive and gullible,

and we Dems are always too kind.

[Irish_Dem]

41. I am proudly on the kick ass side of the Dem party. :(

Though I have been known to be quite kind at times.

[elleng]

42. GOOD!!!

[rampartc]

2. trump does not need to win

if his thugs can discredit the election and throw things into the house and supremes he has many mire election officials better placed than 2020.

[Irish_Dem]

22. The only saving grace is that Trump makes the SC nervous.

They have no problem with his ideology. But they will be damned if they are going
to help anyone become more powerful than they are.

[LiberalFighter]

46. There needs to be an education campaign on tv and any other way of how elections are conducted.

Understanding that there are over 3,100 counties or equivalent and there are multiple polling places and in most cases each polling place involve multiple precincts. The ballots are not all the same for each precinct. And for an attempt to hack the results is extremely difficult. There are plenty of safeguards from the election workers have people from both political parties at each location. To the results are transmitted to headquarters consisting of both paper receipts and cartridge used in each voting machine. Voting machines which are not connected to the internet.

Election workers report to their own respective political party the results and if they don't match up with the results reported at election headquarters then there would be a problem. Those election headquarters have both Democratic and Republican workers to help tabulate the results for multiple election positions.

[rampartc]

61. i have been working elec tions in orleans parish for 50 years.

fraud at superlative level claimed by trump is not possible.

[LiberalFighter]

65. I agree. I've been involved in assignment of election workers from 2005 til 2020.

I understand mostly what it entails from that until results from each polling place are turned in. The voting machines are not internet connected except for those used for signing in. We have over 300 precincts in our county and they are split up between about 110 polling places. The Inspector/Judge sets the machine based on the precinct. And there are multiple voting machines used. The voting machines are not dedicated to just one precinct. Which would make it even more difficult for someone to tamper with a machine via WiFi. Since they could only tamper with one machine at a time. And then figuring out which votes they need to tamper with when there is more than just the Presidential election on the ballot.

[rampartc]

67. all of that is true

and the numbers have to match - signatures in the precinct register must equal number in the voters lists. you can't just dum,p thousands of "fake ballots" and have the number of ballots' equal the nunber of voters.

[underpants]

3. God I hope so. I agree but he won and lost due to the media

Not how they cover him but simply air time. In 2016, he got free blanket coverage. He was this new odd thing thing. Oh and the media told everyone it was OVER at least a month out.

While in office the public got a good look at him as they didn’t like it. The COVID press conferences were a disaster - demeaning, rambling, and self promoting while people were concerned and wanted information. He made excuses instead of leading and showing any empathy.

Now, as news hounds like DUers know, he’s unhinged. He’s shown some really erratic behavior of late and it’s getting worse. He has no new material either. Much of it repeating RW media and to those not immersed in it seems weird.

The “World’s greatest salesman” schtick wears off over time.

[Stuart G]

6. WHERE DID THE BINDERS GO? WHY? CAN IT BE PROVEN TRUMP GAVE THEM TO RUSSIA?

Mark Meadows IS THE KEY......and Donald Trump is sure that he can get away with anything...

..iIf Trump gave binders to Russia, then Trump belongs in jail for the rest of his life.

[Lonestarblue]

28. If Trump gave the binders or any information in them to Putin, he deserves execution.

That is the penalty for treason.

[TexasDem69]

29. Maybe he didn't?

Trump is clearly a narcissist who only cares about himself. But there’s no evidence he’s passing intelligence to Russia.

[tazkcmo]

66. And under our Constitution presumed innocent.

Still, I'll take odds he did.

[Emile]

7. It's their willingness to cheat that bothers me. I know Biden will win.

[PatSeg]

11. Plus the fact that Trump can lose the popular vote

and still win the electoral votes like he did in 2016. With a little cheating in certain states, he could still win.

[Jim__]

8. He may not win, but I'm betting that he will declare victory.

The ensuing chaos may make January 6th look like a "tourist visit."

I hope Joe Biden prepares for chaotic violence following the election.

[elleng]

34. Very sorry to say you are right,

the ensuing chaos may break records, as lots of 'spoiled brats' who don't pay attention to facts and so much bad/wrong information put out.

[yardwork]

9. Love that photo!

[republianmushroom]

10. Heard this before and it was wrong, hopefully it will be correct in 2024., hopefully.

[Hotler]

12. See it to believe it friends. Until the votes are all counted it doesn't hurt to prepare in case of a

fascist take over. In addition to the Insurrection Act there could be martial law. Stock up on supplies. If you don't own a firearm think of getting one, you may need home defense. Those camps they're talking about are for Dems & Libs also.

[bdamomma]

35. We need to VOTE.

Our lives depend on it. Let's show who has the REAL POWER it's us!!!!

I am just getting tired of all his HATE and Division of Americans. He's a sick bastard.

[yardwork]

13. I see some hopeful signs, as a lowly ordinary Democrat.

We can't let down our guard and we need to get out the vote. We need hard-hitting, targeted campaign ads and smart social media campaigns. We must fight the false narrative that Biden has dementia.

However, there are signs that suburban white people are getting sick of MAGA. Abortion is a winning issue for Democrats IF campaign ads remind people that these new anti-abortion laws were passed by Republicans. Most Americans are tired of hysteria in school board meetings. They no longer believe that the gays are destroying the country. Attacking trans people is getting old, even for mean people. Not many people want to see school library shelves bare because of a handful of annoying evangelical busybodies.

I think a lot of suburban white Republicans are embarrassed by Trump. They won't admit it but I notice that they don't talk about him. The enthusiasm is gone. I'm hopeful they won't bother to vote.

The economy is very challenging for young people and people on fixed incomes, but upper middle class suburbanites are doing just fine. If they're honest, they have no reason to complain about Bidenomics. Gas prices are falling. Employment is improving.

I'm worried about Russian interference on social media, but I think many Democrats are savvier than they were in 2016. We will argue among ourselves (that's what Democrats do) but I hope and trust that we will turn out for Biden. If we turn out, and Republican turnout is lackluster, Biden will win.

[shrike3]

57. Good post. You're right; we definitely can't drop our guard.

[Dulcinea]

17. From your post to God's ear.

I drive through GA-14 (Margie Trailer Queen's district) several times a year, & I'm not seeing Trump signs even there. I agree that people are sick of him & his constant chaos. People want stability in an uncertain world. GOTV is key, & there are plenty of people in GA as well as other swing states who will work to make sure Biden is re-elected.

[struggle4progress]

18. The only thing needed for evil to triumph in the world is that enough good people do nothing

[sakabatou]

24. Perhaps, but it's still too early to tell in my book

Next year, in October, we'll have a much better picture.

[bdamomma]

36. or months

sooner than October. We have to mobilize, and take action.

[UTUSN]

26. "man he was in '16" - same as ever, con man who never should have won

More like, the idiots who fell for it in '16 should hopefully not be the same as in '16.

[elleng]

30. I sure hope he's right.

Sadly, some apparently authentic polling is not optimistic.

[MyNameIsJonas]

31. Trump might not "win" but Biden could lose.

And what I mean by that is Trump might not win many more votes than he did in 2020 but Biden can lose votes to a third party candidate and lose the race.

Right now, Biden is polling really badly and there's multiple reasons to believe a third party will be strong in 2024. Because of this, Biden is not safe at all.

[Think. Again.]

53. That's very true...

...I hope the Democratic becomes more appealing to the farther left and young voter blocs.

We here on DU (a publicly open site that many non-members do check in on), can do our part of being more welcoming to undecided or even fringe voters also, since we do indeed get views from all over the political spectrum.

[shrike3]

54. Self-delete

[shrike3]

59. Which certain posters spend a lot of time telling us.

Kind of makes me wonder if that's their whole reason for being here ...

[Think. Again.]

60. That would be good...

...if they come just to try to help make the Democratic Party stronger!

But really, I thought that's why we're all here.

[shrike3]

69. I don't know that everyone is.

Just my opinion.

[Think. Again.]

71. Well, yes, you're right...

...I do suspect that there are folks here who are attempting to work against the success of the Democratic Party.

Our MIRT teams are top notch, but I think it's widely acknowledged that DU is just as vulnerable to 'trolls' as any other site.

I guess my hope is that somehow we can be welcoming and inclusive for more of the people who might be thinking third party (with the best intentions, of course) or of not voting at all, and hopefully they will see that we aren't scary, and that voting a unified Democratic Party ticket really is the best possible chance we have to defeat the evil we are all up against.

[shrike3]

72. Oh, definitely, we're vulnerable.

But trolls aren't that hard to spot. There are a couple of posters I think ARE trolls, but I can't call them out, against the rules.

Positive posts, about Biden's accomplishments and the good work of other Dems, would do more to win over visitors than endless "we're doomed" posts. But that's me.

I appreciate your desire for inclusiveness. btw, what's going on in the world is dampening the mood around here as well, for obvious reasons. Have a good rest of the evening.

[MyNameIsJonas]

64. I think people are concerned.

How can they not be?

Trump seems 1000x times worse than he was in 2016 and that was an election he won for the same reason: third party candidates took a large amount of votes away from Hillary.

[shrike3]

68. Posters with no suggestions, no ideas.

Nothing good to say, really. Just "Biden is gonna lose," over and over and over ....

Plenty of right-wing talking points too, lifted right from the source, one might think.

AND, my opinion hasn't changed about certain things and certain DUers. Something's off.

[MyNameIsJonas]

75. What suggestions would you like?

Do you think Joe Biden's campaign is on DU scouring for tips on how to change the dynamics?

The irony is that I've made suggestions in the past and was called out by DUers then too.

But it doesn't matter. What we suggest is irrelevant because at the end of the day, the burden is going to fall on Biden to make his case to the American people that they need to vote for him. What you and I say isn't going to change that. We could phone bank (and I do every election) but even that has a limited stretch.

The problem with a lot of people here is that they deem everything negative toward Biden a right-wing talking point.

It just seems like a good amount of people want to bury their head in the sand. Well if you do that, don't be surprised when you bring that head up out of the sand on Nov. 6th, 2024 and Trump has been elected president.

[shrike3]

76. Goodness gracious, you've terrified me now.

What ARE your suggestions, darlin'? At this late date? The end of 2023? Don't tell me you're another Dean Phillips guy.

We are in a very strange political environment. No one knows what's going to happen. I suspect a lot's going on behind the scenes I don't know, and it's all out of my control anyway. It would be nice to see someone talk up the Biden administration's accomplishments, and I can't imagine it's not already being talked about within the campaign. We'll find out.

One thing I do know Biden's campaign is not doing. Coming on here and posting ad nauseum "Joe's gonna lose, Joe's gonna lose, Joe's gonna." Favorite pastime of, er, certain low-count posters, shall we say?

As I told you in a past post -- this isn't our first dance -- everything you say is repeated ad nauseum on this site. Ad nauseum. AND by legacy media and non-legacy media. You are not reinventing the wheel, too. We KNOW all this already. We hear it ALL. THE. TIME.

[TexasDem69]

32. In 2020 Donald Trump

Received 74.2 million votes. President Obama received 66 million in 2012. Hillary Clinton received a bit less than 66 million in 2016. Trump’s supporters are going to vote in 2024, and there’s a very real chance (probably greater than Trump beating Hillary) that Trump beats Biden.

[standingtall]

74. Meaningless stats without context

There was a population increase by nearly 26 Million between 2012 and 2020. So indicating that Trump got more votes in 2020 than Obama in 2012 is misleading especially sense Trump lost, because Biden got over 81 million votes and no he is not more likely to beat Biden than he was Hillary unless there is going to be another James Comey to Sabotage Biden's chances in the last week of the campaign.

[Silent3]

33. I lean toward believing this myself, but not with anywhere near enough confidence...

...to not be scared shitless that Trump can still win.

Something is deeply wrong with this country that Trump is still even in the game at this point.

[bdamomma]

44. Something is deeply wrong

with people getting propaganda drilled into their minds. That orange thug needs to put away for a very long time. He's a CRIMINAL.

Those who sacrificed their lives to keep our Democracy alive, must be rolling in their graves.

[Silent3]

47. The susceptibility to that propaganda is as big problem as the propaganda itself

The propaganda would fail miserably without an audience sorely lacking in critical thinking skills, or without an audience motivated by greed and prejudice to want to believe the propaganda.

[bdamomma]

50. Definitely

lacking in critical thinking. So sad, we are at this point. I hope we can heal ourselves and do the right thing.

[0rganism]

38. Hmm, reminds me of shit I was saying back in 2016

I was wrong then, so wrong. Maybe this Ibish guy is correct. I hope so.

I do wonder what crimes his MAGA zealots will commit if he loses, 40% of the country seems to be hardened in their delusions and pre-disposed to violence.

[Think. Again.]

73. Don't give them TOO much credit...

...yes, they're scary, I worry what they'll do whether he loses OR wins, but they are nowhere near 40% of the country, they are only around 28% of the actively voting public.

Still scary though, because they have no boundaries when it comes to getting what they want (or just hurting people for kicks).

[bucolic_frolic]

43. National ticket vs. grass roots organizing

MSM is not the voting booth.

[MichMan]

45. President Biden is going to win by at least 15 points

Trump will likely be in jail

[shrike3]

51. Posts like this won't keep the concern crowd in business.

I believe the race is tied and no one should take anything for granted. But there are people on here, many of them new, whose sole purpose seems to be tell us, post after post, that Biden is in trouble.

[Silent Type]

52. It was pretty much a "certainty" he'd lose in 2016.

[Think. Again.]

55. I remember that very well...

...I went to sleep comfortable that Clinton would be our next president, and excited that a first Woman President would be following our first Black President, and woke up the next morning to a trump win.

I firmly believe that's why so many far-left voters opted to vote 3rd party, they felt sure it was safe to make that statement and still win with Clinton in the lead.

[shrike3]

56. I had a very bad feeling that entire campaign.

Couldn't shake it. Even after everyone assured me Hillary would win. Then the Comey/laptop thing happened, and part of me was not surprised at all Trump won.

[Torchlight]

58. And pretty much a ""certnainy" he's lose in 2020 as well.

[Silent Type]

62. And during the biggest pandemic of our lifetimes, trump lost by less than 100K votes in EC.

I like to believe his actions since Jan 6th will result in a landslide loss for trump, but don’t really believe that is what will happen.

trump should lose unless trump, Putin, Hamas, Iran, etc., pull stunts like hostages in 1980, trump announces some trumped up negotiations to end Ukraine/Russia war, people stay home to protest some BS, etc. Not getting comfortable until votes are counted in Democrats favor.

[shrike3]

70. I can agree with that.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

63. Romney was on track to win in 2011

Link to tweet