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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsBiden said to be increasingly frustrated by dismal poll numbers
Washington PostAfter pardoning a pair of turkeys, an annual White House tradition, Biden delivered some stern words for the small group assembled: His poll numbers were unacceptably low and he wanted to know what his team and his campaign were doing about it. He complained that his economic message had done little to move the ball, even as the economy was growing and unemployment was falling, according to people familiar with his comments, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a private conversation.
For months, the president and first lady Jill Biden have told aides and friends they are frustrated by the presidents low approval rating and the polls that show him trailing former president Donald Trump, the front-runner for the Republican nomination and in recent weeks, they have grown upset that they are not making more progress.
Perhaps someone should tell him the polls are all fake? Or that worrying about polls a year out is meaningless?
Prairie Gates
(8,157 posts)A message to the board.
shrike3
(5,370 posts)Cha
(319,077 posts)this... considering all the Experience he's had.
He was there with Pres Obama when Romney was suppose to win. Mitt didn't have a concession speech even written.
Buckeyeblue
(6,352 posts)And then as the campaign starts up people begin to really evaluate them against potential replacements and numbers go up?
Polybius
(21,901 posts)Only Carter's was worse at his point. Approval in the high 30's is rare. Obama's was as low as 41% though, so take it for what it's worth.
shrike3
(5,370 posts)Early in 1983, oddly enough, which would have been right after he was re-elected.
ITAL
(1,323 posts)Not in 1982.
shrike3
(5,370 posts)1982 being the year I looked for a job at a time unemployment was nearly 12 percent. Burned into my memory.
If he started 1983 with a 35 percent approval rating and ended up re-elected the following year -- well, that's heartening.
MyNameIsJonas
(744 posts)When Obama had low approval, he also had disapproval below 50%. That meant that while not a lot of Americans approved of him, a good number didn't necessarily disapprove of him.
Reagan did hit 54% disapproval in January, 1983 but ended 1983 with a positive rating.
Biden is ending 2023 with an average disapproval of 56%.
If this was early 2023, I'd be less worried.
But Biden absolutely is entering an election year with the worst disapproval rating of any president since Carter.
shrike3
(5,370 posts)I think you're here for a certain reason. Time will tell.
uponit7771
(93,532 posts)shrike3
(5,370 posts)Some less than others.
MyNameIsJonas
(744 posts)By this point in 1983, Reagan had an approval of 54% and a disapproval of 38%.
https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/ronald-reagan-public-approval
Reagan's high in disapproval was very brief. He was in the 50s in disapproval for a few weeks in December, 1982 and very early 1983.
People quote that high in disapproval but ignore it came nearly two years before the 1984 election and that, as I mentioned, was very brief. It was there just a few weeks.
The last time Biden scored a disapproval rating lower than 50% was an Emerson poll from September (47%). The last time Biden actually averaged a disapproval rating below 50%? October 5, 2021.
Over two years ago.
MyNameIsJonas
(744 posts)He started 1984 with an approval rating of 52% and a disapproval of 38%.
That's a net positive of 14 points.
To put that into perspective: Biden's current approval average is 40.8 and disapproval 56. That's a net negative of 15.2 points. Essentially the reversal of Reagan's numbers.
That means Reagan, in overall margin, is doing almost 30 points better than Biden.
Reagan's bad polling came early in 1983.
Biden is entering an election year with the lowest approval/disapproval of any president since Carter.
To give you an example, here's the approval/disapproval for each president as they entered their reelection year:
Biden: 40 to 56
Trump: 44 to 53
Obama: 46 to 47
Bush: 60 to 35
Clinton: 42 to 49
H.W. Bush: 46 to 47
Reagan: 52 to 38
Carter: 32 to 55
The best comparison might be Clinton, who entered 1996 with a 42 to 49 approval/disapproval rating. But even that was likely tied to the shutdown the government saw in December, 1995. It was brief - by the end of February, Clinton had an approval of 53% against a disapproval of 40%.
Maybe Biden's approval will be better in February.
uponit7771
(93,532 posts)Shermann
(9,062 posts)Brush off poll numbers at your peril. It's not appropriate for POTUS to obsess over poll numbers the way TFG did, but it is entirely appropriate for Biden to task his aides if it is just an optics problem.
Emile
(42,289 posts)Just saying
brooklynite
(96,882 posts)That the story didn't happen?
WhiteTara
(31,260 posts)the story happened, but the telling is in the worst possible light.
Deadline White House should be somewhat focusing on this WH administration to tell the good story...but if it bleeds, it leads. and it;s that what's his name all the time. It still continues to suck all the oxygen from the planet.
brooklynite
(96,882 posts)Emile
(42,289 posts)brooklynite
(96,882 posts)Do I trust they have accurate sources? Yes I do.
Emile
(42,289 posts)So accurate the sources needed anonymity, lol.
brooklynite
(96,882 posts)everyonematters
(4,158 posts)The president, in brief remarks, told his staff that the election was bigger than him and about the future of the countrys democracy, according to a person familiar with his comments.
Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.), who is running for the states open Senate seat, has expressed concern to allies that she may not be able to win her race if Biden is at the top of the ticket, according to people familiar with the conversations. A spokesman for Slotkins campaign said she looks forward to running with President Biden.
WhiteTara
(31,260 posts)everyonematters
(4,158 posts)WhiteTara
(31,260 posts)I don't need you to be rude to me today. Really, no one needs you to be rude to them today.
everyonematters
(4,158 posts)WarGamer
(18,613 posts)Why?
No one here needs to be CONVINCED of anything.
Everyone here is voting straight ticket D...
There is NOTHING I hate more than browsing DU threads and seeing headlines that scream like a carnival barker at a Turkish bazaar trying to sell me something.
Grow your hair, this potion will do it.
This herb will keep you going like a 20 year old man.
Every woman/man will long for you.
No one here needs to be convinced. Leave the happy words and political-speak for the real undecideds.
WhiteTara
(31,260 posts)Elessar Zappa
(16,385 posts)obsessing over them leads to pessimism which in turn will reduce voter turnout if people think all is hopeless.
brooklynite
(96,882 posts)I take them into consideration in planning political strategy. Does does the Biden campaign.
Elessar Zappa
(16,385 posts)JI7
(93,617 posts)would not gaurantee we are winning.
At least people can post about what we can do to improve our chances.
shrike3
(5,370 posts)Hence, I was not surprised at all to open up DU and find this.
Frankly, I'd be upset too if I were Biden. Thankfully, better minds than mine are working on it.
brooklynite
(96,882 posts)Ill stick with reality and plan my strategy accordingly, rather than discount any bad news
shrike3
(5,370 posts)Gloom doom constantly. Usually from low-count posters, and a few veterans.
brooklynite
(96,882 posts)shrike3
(5,370 posts)They don't fit the current theme(s).
WhiteTara
(31,260 posts)your strategy?
shrike3
(5,370 posts)BannonsLiver
(20,595 posts)Its a kink at this point.
tavernier
(14,443 posts)Do you think a pattern might be emerging?
shrike3
(5,370 posts)Aepps22
(383 posts)Between that and talking about how HE gets super exclusive meetings with folks like Carville. This election will be close but this person spent post after post telling us how Carville told us we were going to lose in 2022.
BannonsLiver
(20,595 posts)brooklynite
(96,882 posts)I'm not sure I living up to your standards.
Response to BannonsLiver (Reply #47)
Prairie Gates This message was self-deleted by its author.
shrike3
(5,370 posts)But tbf, there were posters all over this place telling us how badly we were going to lose in 2022.
That's why this latest round is starting to annoy me. No one knows what's going to happen. The latest few election cycles should have shown us that much.
LuvLoogie
(8,815 posts)Or vice vera.
Cha
(319,077 posts)Emile
(42,289 posts)Kid Berwyn
(24,395 posts)TlalocW
(15,675 posts)He knows what he's doing and is keeping his powder dry. At this point in his presidency, Obama was behind in the polls to Romney.
lees1975
(7,046 posts)most of these polls, privately owned and driven by the almighty dollar, are deliberately manipulated to produce the narrative commercial news needs to make money. They scrambled like mad the week before the midterms, too late to change the "red wave" narrative they were responsible for, but in enough time to adjust what they put on the composite websites to make it look like they got it right. Public opinion doesn't shift that fast. What happened was they underestimated how many Democrats would turn out, based on past history, not on any data they'd collected.
Chris Hayes recently pointed out that Democrats have a string of elections, even in red states, since 2020 in which they have collectively overperformed, and that percentage is growing, up to 11% above the base line as of now. Since the media calls every election a "referendum on the Biden administration" until after the Democrat wins in a landslide, I'd say he's doing pretty well.
The purpose of these phony polls is to get his campaign off track so it will do something to cause a stumble, because they know it's pretty well headed toward a substantial and significant win in 2024. I hope they don't do that.
brooklynite
(96,882 posts)Ill also ask you the question that nobody seems able to answer: if you think the poll results are wrong, what are the correct numbers?
Fiendish Thingy
(23,236 posts)The question isnt what are the right numbers?, but are current polls accurately predicting voter behaviour next November?
They are clearly not- RFK will not get 20% of the vote, and 15% of likely voters will not be unsure or undecided.
While I think there is no way Trump will win the popular vote (and Biden may even increase his margin over 2020), I think we agree the electoral college will again be won by a narrow margin in a handful of swing states. We probably wont get a clear picture of how narrow that margin will be until next summer.
So, in the meantime, rather than hand wringing and pearl clutching over every negative poll, the focus should be on clarity and consistency in messaging, and engaging with, listening to, and motivating POC, women and young voters, whose turnout, especially in swing states, will be key to victory.
lees1975
(7,046 posts)Democrats have overperformed in virtually every election cycle since 2020, including both the midterms and the off-year, 2023 elections, along with a string of special elections. The overperformance is consistent, in both red and blue states. Each time prior to an election, the media has fussed and dawdled, and hemmed and hawed, and when they thought the results would be a Democratic disaster from a party in "disarray" they said the election would be a referendum on the Biden administration. The midterms turned out to be the most favorable for the party in power in the White House in five decades. The off year elections in 2023 brought increased favorability for Biden over the 2021 off year elections.
Biden was running comfortably ahead in polls, 6 to 9 points, from January through the second week in October. Then, suddenly, a New York Times poll comes up with Trump leading by a couple of points in a poll that allowed respondents an open choice. No election will do that. Suddenly, there were polls mirroring the Times result, mostly B rated and network oriented. Copy cats, I guess.
Biden is raising money in record amounts, small contributions from a large number of contributors, if you believe Trump's reports of fundraising are accurate, almost three times as many contributors. California is always the mother lode of Democratic contributions, but the New York Times published an article pointing to Texas as the second highest source of Biden contributors, and Florida in third place.
Biden is not facing 92 indictments of insurrection, interfering with an election, and stealing classified documents.
Popular vote, he wins 53-45. Electoral, he carries everything he did in 2020 plus North Carolina and Ohio.
Polybius
(21,901 posts)Yes, Democrats overperformed in 2022 and 2023. Trump overperformed in 2016 and 2020. Who will overperform, if anyone, in 2024? I truly have no idea.
Trump overperformed in 2020 ?
Polybius
(21,901 posts)He made it too close for comfort. Republicans overperformed in the House that year as well, picking up some seats they had lost in 2018.
MistakenLamb
(791 posts)With a minor correction, Dems have been over performing since 2018.
I cant see Ohio either.
TwilightZone
(28,836 posts)It sounds like they're showing a similar situation.
Are those being manipulated by the media, too?
" Public opinion doesn't shift that fast. "
Wrong. Studies have shown for decades that a significant chunk of the electorate doesn't decide for whom they intend to vote until the final few days, some at the voting booth. There was evidence in the Romney/Obama race, for example, (polls shifted significantly in the final few days) but we pretty much pretend it doesn't exist.
"Binders full of women" ring a bell?
Response to TwilightZone (Reply #19)
Name removed Message auto-removed
unc70
(6,501 posts)shrike3
(5,370 posts)Posting dismal news about Biden does seem to be a low poster thing. Since Biden doesn't read DU (I sure hope he doesn't. How would he have the time?) the purpose could be: making DU a pessimistic place. Seems to be working.
lees1975
(7,046 posts)"sources who spoke on condition of anonymity."
Which leaves much room for doubt that such conversations ever really took place.
The polls are the only indication of a political problem for Biden. Everything else seems to be indicating otherwise. His contributions and contributors are up, his fellow party members are winning elections right and left. I'm a volunteer canvasser for Democrats, and in our group meetings, no one, not a single person, has mentioned his age being a problem, or worry about a bunch of manipulated, "factored" polls.
The polls shift before elections, because after weeks of speculation and calculating factors, the pollsters need to keep a measure of credibility. Public opinion does not shift. I just don't believe it can accurately be measured by a plethora of polls which operate by making changes after one or two at the top make changes, like some kind of chain reaction.
I'm sure Biden has discussed this with his strategists, who are competent people that helped make sure he was elected the first time.
TwilightZone
(28,836 posts)Sorry, but that's just nonsense.
Binders full of women.
James Comey.
lamp_shade
(15,482 posts)Fiendish Thingy
(23,236 posts)Shouldnt he end his candidacy?
On the other hand, perhaps he believes that current polls are only a reflection of his teams failure to get his message, especially about his economic successes, to resonate with the electorate.
I think Biden probably holds the same view I do - that todays polls are meaningless as predictors of voter behaviour next November, but do capture how closely voters are paying attention to various issues, and the effectiveness of his campaigns ability to communicate Bidens successes to voters.
Polybius
(21,901 posts)I think he's also glad that he's running against Trump, as he believes the election will come down to him and a (likely) convicted felon.
TwilightZone
(28,836 posts)Unlike a lot of people, he probably understands that they're a snapshot in time and not a predictor.
Silent3
(15,909 posts)No matter what headwinds are working against Biden, he's got a much better chance of overcoming the current low polling any other Democrat would have after the mess of a contested primary, then running without the advantage of incumbency.
Response to brooklynite (Original post)
Name removed Message auto-removed
Polybius
(21,901 posts)Hard to count your own as fake.
Silent Type
(12,412 posts)biased polls we get every few days.
I have nothing to offer as to what he should do to improve his position, but I'm sure his campaign is working on it.
shrike3
(5,370 posts)This stuff is above my pay grade.
shrike3
(5,370 posts)Not that we don't already hear it multiple times a day, from various low posters. And a few veterans.
themaguffin
(5,221 posts)kentuck
(115,407 posts)If the Trump trial goes as scheduled, in early March, Biden might drop out of the race.
shrike3
(5,370 posts)MyNameIsJonas
(744 posts)Over half of the states will have held their primary by the end of March.
It would certainly send it to the convention for a floor fight that likely would get ugly.
shrike3
(5,370 posts)Given your, er, purpose here.
MyNameIsJonas
(744 posts)But thanks for checking in.
shrike3
(5,370 posts)Sure, ya do. Try that on somebody else.
What're the new talking points going to be? I'm sure you get 'em while they're hot.
MyNameIsJonas
(744 posts)I've posted multiple times in the past stating as such, sugar. I can give you some links to those posts if you'd like babycakes?
shrike3
(5,370 posts)Next time your minders give you an assignment like this, you might want to brush up on your pretending-to-be-a-Democrat skills. Your posts are full of tells. Not gonna bother telling you what they are. It'd be fun to watch you try and correct them, but life is too short.
MyNameIsJonas
(744 posts)Do you normally concoct lies when you're losing arguments?
bigtree
(94,263 posts)...but this is what Pres. Biden has publicly said about the polls, not just some secondhand, self-serving account:
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/biden-unharmed-car-strikes-presidents-motorcade-delaware-rcna130189
You can believe what the president actually said and was quoted as saying about the polls, or you can believe some anonymous rando who is sooo behind Pres. Biden, and so connected that he's spilling tea about him out in public in contradiction to what the president saying to the press himself.
John Shaft
(808 posts)expressed the same concerns to me while I was trying to get his payment this morning.
shrike3
(5,370 posts)Are we talking a Trump supporter? Self-described conservative? Not quite clear what you're saying? The story is about Biden being frustrated with his poll numbers?
One thing about this I don't get: the right-wing should be gleeful. They should be saying, "Run, Joe, run," if he's that weak. Instead, they seem as eager for Joe to drop out as everyone else.
John Shaft
(808 posts)specifically.
shrike3
(5,370 posts)They like the polls, they don't? Again, alleged reactions of right-wingers seem off to me.
John Shaft
(808 posts)that right wingers puke out of their filthy mouths all the fucking time.
I thought it was curious they mentioned polling.
shrike3
(5,370 posts)So it doesn't surprise me he'd bring it up. Thanks for clarifying.
MorbidButterflyTat
(4,512 posts)"...Biden delivered some stern words for the small group assembled...He complained ... according to people familiar with his comments, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a private conversation.
For months, the president and first lady Jill Biden have told aides and friends they are frustrated....they have grown upset that they are not making more progress."
Aides and friends discussing private conversations, and saying basically nothing. Stern words, complaining, frustrated and upset. Whose descriptors are those? Why demand anonymity for dishing on absolutely nothing?
I imagine a relaxed and confident president and first lady enjoying a holiday, laughing and relaxing at Thanksgiving...not this obvious attempt to make Prez Biden seem like a softer but just as obnoxious version of Slobby. Not buying it.
"Perhaps someone should tell him the polls are all fake? Or that worrying about polls a year out is meaningless?"
President Biden doesn't need anyone to tell him about the polls, and I doubt he's worried about them, or haranguing aides about them. This is stupid, worthless content stuffed between ads, and I have less than zero respect for cowardly busybodies who are obviously not "closest aides" or "friends," who may or may not even exist.
Yes, some polls ARE fake and biased, and Slobby pays for favorable polls, which I'm sure his sitters rush to show him, trying to prevent or at least mitigate his infantile ranting.
FHRRK
(1,410 posts)Ill take Biden, winning popular vote and EC.
Bet cancelled if pukes mess with EC.
Republicans are like the Dallas Cowboys, propped up by national media, then the fall on thier faces. Like the Cowboys, the media doesnt dive into the issue, they just ignore the weaknesses and start the sunshine pump up again.
Pukes have one popular vote win in presidential elections since Bush 1.
Pukes are on a five year losing streak in elections.
Media is focused on Roe rage, that is bullshit, but the only thing they will cover, people are outraged over the SC overall NOT just reproductive rights.
I tend to take the positive path and make it happen, I get peoples concern and maybe living in CA makes people a bit too optimistic.
Biden or a Dem will win over tRump.
shrike3
(5,370 posts)FHRRK
(1,410 posts)I can look at trends over time and make educated decisions.
The same stuff was being pushed prior to the midterms. Progressives are going to cause a bloodbath, Dems are going to get wiped out, we need to be realistic
F that bullshit, we need to aggressively knock some sense into any person making less than a million a year. That alone will improve numbers with white males.
shrike3
(5,370 posts)I too noticed the similarity in rhetoric.
Sneederbunk
(17,493 posts)that he will be running against Trump.
Think. Again.
(22,456 posts)...that "they're the wrong polls", is more accurate.
I could write and take a poll that would show a sampling of Americans think we should just close up shop and give our land away to whoever, ending the great American experiment forever.
Any psychology grad student could do just about anything with a poll.
In order for me to take the results of any poll seriously, I would need to know all the details of how the poll is written, who were the respondents (in depth), what was in the news the prior few days, what was the goal or reason for taking the poll in the first place, and all the little details that can be manipulated to achieve any desired responses.
RobinA
(10,478 posts)his concern will be duly noted here on DU!
SalamanderSleeps
(1,022 posts)"He complained that his economic message had done little to move the ball, even as the economy was growing and unemployment was falling, according to people familiar with his comments, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a private conversation."
Who is this fly on the wall?
Is it someone trying to manufacture low hanging fruit?
Or, are they someone who just can't keep their goddamned mouth shut.
It's my experience that people that gossip use gossip to communicate things they wish they heard.
Regardless, they have proven themselves to be untrustworthy.
Charging Triceratops
(441 posts)There's your damned poll, Wapo!
brooklynite
(96,882 posts)The stock market was a "ponzi scheme" for anyone who wasn't a wealthy investor.
Emile
(42,289 posts)bigtree
(94,263 posts)...by tax breaks for the wealthy, real estate schemes, and a pittance for the middle class.
Makes zero sense to equate the two periods growth, because there are very specific factors in evidence for the Biden Boom which came with infrastructure spending and middle class tax breaks and investments in the $1.9 trillion relief bill, in addition to $132 billion in student debt relief for more than 3.6 million Americans.
On the other hand, top 1% of earners received 38% of the Bush tax cuts. The lower 60% received less than 20% of the total benefit of Bushs tax policies. It's a well-established history, so it's really surprising to see it compared to the Biden effort.
In contrast, Pres. Biden's $1.9 trillion relief package slashed taxes for lower and moderate-income Americans. Employment was the second-best year on record. The strong labor market recouped all 22 million workers that were let go in the pandemic, and then some.
But sure, apples and oranges are both fruit.
betsuni
(29,078 posts)shrike3
(5,370 posts)uponit7771
(93,532 posts)Emile
(42,289 posts)treestar
(82,383 posts)You are right
Second hand reports on what Biden might think. Hes not stupid.
brooklynite
(96,882 posts)I trust you'll be calling out all the stories about Trump from unnamed sources over the past 8 years?
treestar
(82,383 posts)Yes a year out does not mean he is doomed.
so maybe we should tell him that, though I think he knows that.
You seem determined to convince us he is going to lose and I don't understand that. A year out, too.
Hotler
(13,747 posts)And if they do take power they will steal every penny in the S.S./Medicare accounts and then go for the rest. Hit workers and retirees with a little fear of losing their S.S., etc. and they'll vote.
The repugs talk cuts but, that's code for steal it all.
They'll steal everything just like Putin and his buddies did when
Vinca
(53,994 posts)polled. I'm thinking these are rabid right wingers responding because the outcomes are so stupid. Maybe that's the answer: stupid. How stupid do you have to be to click on polls that appear on your cell? I think I got 3 today and immediately trashed them.