Why Democrats can't rely on abortion ballot initiatives to help them win
Democrats are scrambling to put state abortion-rights initiatives on the ballot this year in the hope that the measures will drive turnout and boost their candidates in national and local elections.
But those initiatives may not give Democrats the lift they are aiming for, according to a POLITICO analysis of five abortion-related measures that have appeared on the ballot since Roe v. Wade was overturned in 2022.
Voters decisively upheld abortion rights in every single case. But those margins were largely driven by Republican voters who also voted for GOP candidates. And Democratic turnout didn’t consistently increase in states with abortion referendums compared to those without. Several Democrats who were on the same ballots as abortion measures lost their races. Meanwhile, many Democrats who ran as champions of abortion rights even in states without accompanying referendums outperformed expectations.
“It would be unwise for candidates in either party to think that an abortion-rights ballot initiative will automatically determine who wins or loses a race,” cautioned John LaBombard, a longtime adviser of swing- and red-state Democrats, including Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) and former Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.). “On the margins, ballot initiatives can help illuminate differences between the candidates — even in deeply red states where voters are increasingly likely to vote based on partisanship. But voters can view them separately from the initiative itself.”
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/03/abortion-democrats-2024-election-00133506
= new reply since forum marked as read