Is it true that Katie Porter's in jeopardy, in the Primary??? edited

[elleng]

WTF!!!

From FB, Katie Porter for Senate:

I’ve always believed in straight talk, no BS. Today, I need to share something important—and a bit alarming—with you.
December polls delivered a wake-up call: they're showing me losing the primary. That means my time in Congress would come to an end.
Let me explain: California has a unique system. The top two vote-getters in March’s U.S. Senate primary advance to the general election in November. Despite being well-positioned for the general election no matter who I run against, the primary math is proving tricky. A celebrity Republican is gaining ground fast, and if he secures the second place spot, we might not make it to the general at all.
So I have to ask: Can you contribute $5 today to help us run ads and reach key voters ahead of our March primary?
We’re on the verge of rolling out our TV and digital ads across California. This is a huge financial undertaking—millions leaving our bank account weekly. If we can't bolster our fundraising, we would be forced to dial back our ad campaign, costing us crucial support in the primary election.
But here's the silver lining: When voters hear our message, understand who I am and what I stand for, we gain momentum. We just need the resources to reach them.
I'm counting on you—we can't do this without your support. Every dollar, every supporter, every voice adds up. Please contribute $5 today to help make it happen.

[Ocelot II]

1. "In jeopardy" in what way?

[LisaM]

2. Is she running in the primary?

I thought she was running for Senate, thereby making her sear vulnerable to Republicans.

[Retrograde]

17. She is running in the primary for Senate

Here in California we have lots of primary races on the March ballot- president is the least important since it’s the only non-jungle one, and the Republican one is closed

[LisaM]

19. My apologies. I misunderstood.

I can't exit DU when I am on my phone to check stuff or I lose my post, so I probably come across as a dope at times.

[Retrograde]

26. No prob - every state has its own way of handling elections

When it comes to voting for president, California has been so skewed towards Democrats in recent years that presidential races don't get much attention here. Judging by the prevalence of yard signs in my town, the most important races are always city council, and maybe state assembly. And all the damned propositions, one of the dumber ways to run a government IMHO.

[brooklynite]

66. FWIW she's be "in jeopardy" of losing the Senate Primary for months

Adam Schoff has been the clear favorite for a long time.

[Rebl2]

39. That's what

I thought as well.

[Dale in Laurel MD]

3. As I understand it

she's pitted against Adam Schiff. I hate to lose either of them.

[Fiendish Thingy]

4. She's been polling in third place, behind Schiff and Garvey

CA has a “ jungle primary”, in which the top two vote getters, regardless of party, advance to the general.

[elleng]

6. 3d? Behind Schiff I can understand.

Who's Garvey?

[Fiendish Thingy]

8. The Republican candidate. Nt

[Bucky]

33. Damn...

I was hoping it'd be Fred Garvin

[Sympthsical]

10. The Republican can be top two, because Democrats are splitting their votes

I think Lee is throwing a spanner in things in a vanity run, but oh well. That's democracy.

[blm]

11. Steve Garvey, former baseball player

[Mz Pip]

29. Steve Garvey

A former baseball player.

[Caliman73]

30. Steve Garvey, Republican candidate former Los Angeles Dodger

We have a nasty history in California, of electing celebrities who have no business being in politics.

Garvey is an idiot and I have been a Dodger fan since the dream team with Garvey, Davey Lopes, Ron Cey, Bill Russell, Dusty Baker, and Steve Yeager. My family and I would go to Chavez Ravine reguarly to see them play.

[Rebl2]

40. Was going

to ask same. Who’s Garvey?

[LetMyPeopleVote]

57. Former baseball player

[Johonny]

12. Garvey is a washed up baseball player

More famous for paternity suits against him than anything anyone can remember him doing on the field. The GOP is so dead in California they basically need name recognition to even get a pulse.

[NoRethugFriends]

56. Well he is remembered for hitting into a record number of double plays on the baseball field

[Emile]

5. Last poll I saw has her slightly ahead of Adam Schiff.

I think it was a UC Berkeley poll.

[elleng]

9. Thx.

Actually I'd hate to have to choose between those 2.

[WhiskeyGrinder]

7. She's in a three-way race for second in the primary atm, with Schiff in the lead.

[WhiteTara]

13. What is wrong with her seat in the House.

[ITAL]

14. She isn't running for it

She is running for Senate instead.

[WhiteTara]

15. that's what I'm talking about.

[ITAL]

20. Most Reps would rather be Senators

In much the same way they say all Senators look in the mirror and see a potential president.

[tinrobot]

23. Sadly, a lot of politics is driven by ego.

And that tends to skew representation towards egomaniacs.

[ExWhoDoesntCare]

27. Ms Porter isn't running over ego

But because the campaigning every 2 years required as a representative is grueling, especially for a single mom.

She would only need to run once every 6 years as a Senator, which would make her life much easier.

[tinrobot]

62. So she's running to make HER life easier?

I would hope that anyone who runs is doing it to make OUR lives easier.

No offense to Rep, Porter, I really like her. But the argument you present doesn't hold water.

[SharonAnn]

45. I think she is extremely effective in the House. It would be hard for her to be as effective in the Senate.

[WhiteTara]

53. she'll be even less effective if

she doesn't win an election.

[ZonkerHarris]

16. we in CA are going to go from 2 women Senators to 0 women Senators in one elction cycle.

[Retrograde]

18. We already have one male senator

duly elected in 2022. The seat up for election is open to all eligible residents- it’s not reserved for any particular gender or ethnicity

[ZonkerHarris]

32. elected with the advantage of having been appointed to the seat

[tinrobot]

25. And 32 years ago, we went from zero to two.

[Zeitghost]

21. Her statement doesn't make sense

She can't be "well positioned" for the general but behind in the primary due to California having a unique system. Schiff is in the lead comfortably, so it's him she would be facing if she can get into the 2nd spot and if he can handily beat her in the primary, that's not going to change in the general.

[tritsofme]

22. Porter should have stayed in the House, she's going to be out of a job at the end of the year.

Lots of ambitious pols in California, it’s hard to stay relevant from the sidelines.

[DFW]

24. That is my personal assessment as well

Whoever told her she had a good chance to beat Adam Schiff in the primary gave her bad advice. She should have indeed have stayed in the House, where her voice would have been heard and counted. I wonder if it's too late for her to change her mind and try to stay in the House? If I understood correctly, there was some re-drawing of her district, but there must be a good shot for her to win one of those districts, even if it means she would have to move to be eligible.

[ExWhoDoesntCare]

28. She's not running out of ambition

She's doing it because running every 2 years for the House is seriously grueling for a single mom.

[Bucky]

35. Nah, it was worth a run. I'm sure she'll land some place useful for the good causes she supports

And CA's primary is one of the last in the country. She has time to get back up in the pols.

But she has to replace Schiff, not Garvey in the top 3. I doubt she'd beat Schiff in the run-off, since the whole point of a jungle primary is to produce the most moderate of the two candidates.

[Retrograde]

43. California primary is March 5 this year

Early voting starts February 5, the day ballots are mailed to all registered voters

[Bucky]

51. oooch! I had no idea.

I really like Katie. Schiff's pretty awesome too. But I'm sure either one will end up in the Biden Administration if they don't get nominated.

[tritsofme]

65. Maybe she can find a place in the second Biden administration, but with a state like California

there are just so many ambitious politicians looking for their break and fighting over the coveted positions, she could very easily be left behind.

[Bucky]

68. Yes, this is one of the shortcomings of our bicameral Congress

The idea that California with something like 10% of the country's population only getting 2% of congress's senators is the reason these accomplished legislators have to duke it out. Meanwhile montana, idaho, wyoming, and Utah collectively get two ranchers each, for 8% of the Senate, representing maybe 4% of the population. It's bizarre.

[Cha]

36. No.

[Hekate]

37. What are you even talking about? They are currently both US Congressmen, running for US Senator

There’s a big difference between the two elective positions. They both want to move up, and they both have to give up their current seat do make the effort. This is a choice — no “state machine” forcing their hands.

So — where is your question coming from?

[Hekate]

42. Should have been more clear. I meant in regards to those two -- I somehow doubt a smoke filled backroom is pulling their

…strings.

The Dems in California have an incredibly valuable suite of US Representatives.

“Summer child”? Aren’t you just the cutest thing. I can see we’re off to a great start.

[KS Toronado]

44. That article was Published: Oct 06, 2020 8:00 AM EST

Why base your ideas on something that old and one person's opinion? Have a feeling you're not
from around here, you a U.S. citizen? There's lots of people on this forum from other countries,
you one of the new ones? DUers here help educate others how our political system works.

[GP6971]

47. Well, aren't you special.

[Hekate]

52. Like I said, off to a great start

[GP6971]

55. And they're gone. n/t

[Hekate]

34. I like Katie P a lot, but I like Schiff better. I'm sorry I have to choose between them.

[Rebl2]

41. Same here

[greatauntoftriplets]

48. Schiff has lots more experience than Katie Porter as well.

I'm happy to not have to choose between them, because I'd most likely vote for Schiff. The fact that I live in Illinois makes this all moot, of course.

[Hekate]

50. Schiff has distinguished himself incredibly well against all things Trump & GOP

I’d love to see Katie working with Elizabeth Warren on economics — but as others have discovered, there is scope in a career in the House.

[Locutusofborg]

49. Recent Poll

Last edited Fri Jan 12, 2024, 02:36 AM - Edit history (1)

"Schiff leads, close race for second place in California Senate primary" 12/21/23
Results of a POLITICO | Morning Consult poll among likely voters in California's March 5 primary
Adam Schiff (D): 28%
Steve Garvey (R):19%
Katie Porter (D):17%
Barbara Lee (D):14%
Eric Early (R): 7%
James Bradley (R): 7%
Christina Pascucci (D): 4%
Denice Gary-Pandol (R):1%
Others: 3%

[Cha]

54. TY

[hvn_nbr_2]

58. Eric Early is polling about the same as Porter, Lee, and Garvey?

I had to look him up. In the story of his announcement as a candidate, the L.A. Times referred to him as "perennial candidate." I don't think he's ever gotten past the primary in any of his elections. It seems really weird that he would be polling alongside the more prominent names.

It also seems a bit odd that Republicans are cumulatively polling 44% in California. Trump got 33% and Alex Padilla's opponent got 39%.

Ah. Never mind. I looked up the poll and your post has a typo apparently. The article I found has Early at 7%, not 17%. That makes an R total of 34%, which seems more likely.

[3catwoman3]

59. I was disappointed when I first heard about Lee, Porter and Schiff...

...all deciding to run for Senate. I think it's a mistake. I hope their seats are in safely Democratic districts, because 2 of them will be lost to the House, and it will be a loss, even if they re succeeded by other Democrats. They are all good at what they do.

(I live in Illinois, BTW.)

[LeftInTX]

60. Lee's is safe. Porter's is a swing district. I don't know who is running. Porter flipped a seat in 2018

Her seat was redistricted and I believe it is now more red.
2022 was a nail biter.

[3catwoman3]

61. Thank you.

[SleeplessinSoCal]

64. She won in our new district in 22.

And she's poling behind Adam Sciff. Republican Steve Garvey is neck and neck with her. I'm bummed that she didn't stick with us. Garvey is only poling well because he's s sports guy. Lee lags far behind.

Recent poll:

The Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll showed Schiff leading with 21% support from likely voters followed by Porter at 17%, Garvey at 13% and Lee at 9% in the March 5 primary for which ballots will be mailed out Feb. 5. It also found 21% remain undecided, and 19% divided their preferences among 23 other candidates drawing less than 3% support each.

[3catwoman3]

63. 2 changes would be very welcome. House of Representative terms...

...could be 3 years instead of 2, and campaigning could be limited to 3 months before the election. Those elected start campaigning for re-election 30 seconds after the votes are counted. I think the 3 month limit is how it is done by the British.

[DemocraticPatriot]

67. "In Jeopardy" ??? wtf??? oh.... fundraising email....

As if she was presumed to be winning it ?

She is competing for an open Senate seat..... instead of her House seat.....

YES, she is "in jeopardy" of losing that primary.... in a manner of speaking

[LetMyPeopleVote]

69. Los Angeles Times endorses Schiff for California Senate seat

Democrats have to keep this seat

Link to tweet

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/14/l-a-times-endorses-schiff-california-senate-00135526

The Los Angeles Times’ editorial board endorsed Rep. Adam Schiff in the competitive race to replace the late California Sen. Dianne Feinstein, citing the California Democrat’s “extraordinary leadership” in protecting the country — and democracy — from former President Donald Trump.

The Times praised all three Democrats in the race, describing Schiff, Rep. Barbara Lee and Rep. Katie Porter as “smart, experienced, savvy members of the House who could represent California well in the Senate.”

But Schiff, the Times said, “stands out for his extraordinary leadership over the last several years in helping to protect the nation’s institutions, the rule of law and American democracy itself from former President Trump.”

Schiff rose to national prominence when he was tapped by then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (who has endorsed Schiff in his Senate bid) to lead the first impeachment investigation into Trump for allegedly withholding aid to Ukraine on the condition that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy open an investigation into Joe Biden’s son, Hunter.

“Schiff, who has the support of more than 60% of the California House delegation, including former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, seems the most ready to lead statewide,” the Times’ editorial board writes.

[JustAnotherGen]

70. Candidates' teams

Always send out this hair on fire kind of email.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

71. New California Senate Poll Primary March 5th

Link to tweet