Who in their right, fucking mind believes that Democrats will abandon President Biden in November....

[Aviation Pro]

....over some mouth breathing website's bullshit on 'polls?'

Consider the fucking alternative paraphrasing the President.

I know of no Democrat who isn't a strong supporter of saving democracy.

Context.

President Joe Biden currently holds the worst net approval rating in history, with an approval rating in the mid-thirties and a disapproval rating in the mid-fifties.

His popularity declined after the Afghanistan withdrawal, and factors such as inflation, low consumer sentiment, and COVID-19 mandates have contributed to poor approval numbers.

According to FiveThirtyEight, “Biden’s popularity never recovered after he directed the deadly Afghanistan withdrawal in 2021. Soaring inflation after massive post-pandemic spending, low consumer sentiment, and draconian coronavirus mandates kept his approval numbers poor throughout 2022 and 2023.”

Madison Hall wrote, “And if he can’t get his approval ratings up — and quick — then he and the Democratic Party need to have a serious conversation about replacing him on the Democratic ticket in the 2024 presidential race.”

There are discussions about the possibility of replacing him on the Democratic ticket for the 2024 presidential race if his approval ratings do not improve quickly.

[ok_cpu]

1. Agree with you 100% in a 2-way race

The danger is if the right can find a viable 3rd spoiler "beCaUsE bOtH PArTiEs ArE THE sAmE."

[JohnSJ]

2. David Sirota, Nina Turner, Cornell West, Briahana Joy Gray, etc.

[DFW]

22. Exactly. "Democrats of Convenience"

When it suits them to be "Democrats," they are. When it doesn't, they use some other label as they may find convenient. Some of the most anti-social "socialists" you will ever run across.

[betsuni]

41. Anti-social "socialists" -- perfect!

[Attilatheblond]

27. Didn't the OP specify "Who in their right mind"?

That would likely exclude the above mentioned

[underpants]

3. He's a very effective fundraiser

538 isn’t taking that into consideration

[The Magistrate]

4. There's An Orwell Line I'm Fond Of, Sir

"One has to belong to the intelligentsia to believe things like that: no ordinary man could be such a fool…"

I expect 'op-ed pundit' is sort of among the intelligentsia....

[TwilightZone]

5. Why are you giving it exposure?

It's worth neither the time, nor the energy.

The voting public is notoriously fickle, and we need to account for that. Getting out the vote will be more important in this election than in any other, with the possible exception of 2016. We could have avoided all this if some voters hadn't thrown a fit about e-mails and other assorted non-issues.

[womanofthehills]

23. Maybe we don't want to put reality on a back burner when WW111 & Yemem are trending on X

and almost a third of Americans are on X. People are freaking out today after our bombing of Yemen and talking about WW111. Many are sure there will be retaliation on our troops in the area. All we need is one American soldier killed and off we go to war.

Trump is taking advantage of this and basically saying he is the peace president. Our gov has to calm down the Middle East fast.

[MyNameIsJonas]

31. lol WWIII has trended so many times on twitter over the years.

We heard it when Trump was president during his bombings and attacks on Iran.

We heard it when Russia invaded Ukraine.

We heard it with North Korea.

We heard it last year with Israel.

Twitter isn't real life.

[Walleye]

33. Well I've been hearing about it since at least 1960, so there's that

[MyNameIsJonas]

35. Every dust-up is the next WWIII lol

[Walleye]

32. So are you saying we should dump a successful Democratic president because of what is trending on Twitter?

[BannonsLiver]

48. oH noEs ItS wW3 aGaIn!111

[TwilightZone]

50. The screed linked in the OP isn't reality.

It's bullshit. No one is discussing replacing President Biden on the ballot.

And there isn't a single word in it about anything you wrote.

If you think a single soldier killed is going to kick off World War 3, you're the one who needs a dose of reality.

[bucolic_frolic]

6. We don't know what the economy will be like in November

Fed has already stated they will lower interest rates. That is stimulative, and will help pocketbooks. But by so stating, the Fed is indicating the conditions will be ripe to lower interest rates, and those conditions are recession. 6 months can a huge difference make. 10 months more so.

[CincyDem]

7. Unfortunately, there are folks not in their right f'ing mind who will.

They’ll want to send a message, teach “them” a lesson by voting third party or staying home.

Gaza. Ukraine. NATO. Age. He gave Danzel a medal of freedom even though Equalizer 3 sucked. Some other stupid pet reason they think is more important than fundamental democracy going forward.

It’s scrary that there are so many susceptible to RW diversionary divisive messages.

[Arazi]

8. Useful idiots who have fallen prey to Genocide Joe propaganda

And according to some, Biden and Dems are personally responsible for the “genocide” in Gaza.

They’ve vowed to take him out, even if that means #Traitor is back cause somehow Biden can run another sovereign country

Useful idiots

[tritsofme]

12. At some point there is a line between being a "useful idiot" and collaborating.

[elias7]

43. Interestingly, that comment can apply to groups of people as well

[Omnipresent]

9. It's really too early to speculate the worst.

After the nominations are complete, the conventions usually give one party a bigger bounce over the other.
It’s probably fair to say, Joe is a much more effective campaigner than Hilary. After all, he’s had many more years experience, in the political arena.

[MyNameIsJonas]

34. Problem is, at that point, it's too late.

The cake is baked by the conventions. This isn't 40 years ago where 60% of the country could be persuaded to vote based on a convention. The convention bounce just isn't a thing anymore and hasn't been a thing since maybe 1988.

If Biden's approval is as low as it is now by then (and there's no reason to believe it won't be, as his approval right now is worse than a year ago and that approval was worse than in 2022, which was significantly down from his approval at the start of his presidency), he stands a chance of losing.

I think if in the next six months, Biden's numbers haven't improved, it'll be time to concede a loss is possible. Not saying likely but definitely possible.

[SalamanderSleeps]

10. "draconian coronavirus mandates?"

Business Insider is owned by the same folks that brought us Politico.

I don't think they actually care if they know what they are talking about.

Scribble, Scribble, Scribble, get paid.

Scribble, Scribble, Scribble, get paid.

Scribble, Scribble, Scribble, get paid.

[shrike3]

11. State of the Union is kind of an iffy source.

IMO. They've been pushing these "Biden needs to go" articles for a while.

They pop up on my feed occasionally, and never have anything good to say about Democratic figures.

I took a look at 538, looking for the article they referenced, couldn't find it. Doesn't mean it's not there.

[FlyingPiggy]

13. Totally agree! Anyone who is pro democracy needs to vote for Biden. Period.

LIKE SERIOUSLY. Have we not learned from the past on 3rd parties?!?!!

[Clash City Rocker]

14. Polls are no longer meaningful, in my opinion

They have been inaccurate more often than not for recent elections. What is accurate is recent election results, and those haven’t been going well for Republicans.

Most of the talk of replacing Biden is concern trolling from Trump supporters. They do it because they want us to be divided. Don’t listen to them.

[Zeitghost]

15. The polls

At least on average, have been within their margins of error and done a decent job of predicting outcomes. The national average for the 2022 Congressional elections was R +1.2, they won by 3.8%.

What has been a mess is the conclusions, commentary and opinions drawn from them.

[Midnight Writer]

16. See Clinton vs Trump 2016

The conman pulled out a win over one of the most qualified candidates in history.

Complacency is our enemy.

It can happen here.

[Aviation Pro]

17. With his handler's help

2016 was an aberration and the whole country knows it.

[Attilatheblond]

29. Even Bill Clinton knew that campaign was in deep trouble

But they wouldn't take his calls

[Walleye]

36. That's true, but I don't know anybody who is complacent about this election

And we can always expect the fringies to try and fuck it up. With Putin’ s help.Like in 2016, I’ll never forget that convention when they booed John Lewis. And I remember thinking how silly they looked with tape over their mouths, and signs that said no TPP, when they didn’t even know what it was. This is not how we get respect

[cally]

18. I would not support Biden in a primary except he is our only chance to save democracy

Last edited Sun Jan 14, 2024, 07:53 PM - Edit history (1)

He has stood by and not protected innocent people in Gaza enough. And this might soon escalate to embroil the entire region in the conflict. I can’t predict what UN will decide but it could call this a genocide.

I do realize there are no challengers to Biden that have any chance except weakening Biden for the general. I do not support any of them.

[Aviation Pro]

19. Good day to you

.....

[emulatorloo]

21. Maybe read some articles in reputable newspapers about Biden and Blinken's work helping Gaza

Last edited Fri Jan 12, 2024, 01:34 PM - Edit history (1)

get more and more humanitarian aid and pushing to moderate Bibi before falsely claiming Biden ‘stood by’ and is planning to escalate mideast conflict. Because none of that is based on fact.

Just one example:

Link to tweet

[cally]

37. read much

And family member is a journalist covering the war.

[Arazi]

45. These useful idiots are impervious to facts

They somehow believe Biden is running Israel and dictates Israeli decisions.

Maddening

[LiberalFighter]

28. Basing your decision on one issue when there are many other issues just as important or more important is wrong.

[cally]

40. I have not supported any of the mid east wars

And I said I would support Biden even in the primaries because there is not an alternative who can beat Trump. Under different circumstances, I would be campaigning for another Democrat in the primaries.

I know many people involved in my political circles would not either.

[Walleye]

38. Well thank you for giving our president what a little support your conscience will allow

[Arazi]

42. Kremlin propaganda

Here it is on DU…

Dems better wake up - there’s a boatload of lefties who believe this shit propaganda

[BannonsLiver]

47. So you're a one issue voter then?

The only thing that matters is Israel-Gaza.

Understood.

[stopdiggin]

20. while appreciating the tone - (or maybe more like where it's coming from)

I think the answer to the question asked is pretty well established. In that there are elements (within the party and out) that are indicating that they probably won't be showing up for Joe Biden. I happen to think these people are pretty low functioning too. But it's a mistake to assume that they aren't out there. The Jill Stein (or any other 3rd party) voter? The 'Genocide Joe' mouth breathers?

[Polybius]

24. Not me of course, but I work with a few

One was a Trump voter in 2016, that hated his attitude/Tweets so he voted Biden. Says he regrets it now.

The other two are very liberal young women around 20. They seem to be single issue voters, as all they talk about politically is "Free Palestine."

[redqueen]

25. US corporate media is going to shift into hyperdrive

More and more people are realizing that capitalism is the root cause of a great deal of the issues facing us, wildlife, ecosystems, etc.

They want us to be like Russia. Sham elections and propaganda keeping people demotivated and hopeless. Trump is their best hope to accomplish their goals

[LiberalFighter]

26. FiveThirtyEight is just making shit up.

[MyNameIsJonas]

30. Democrats? No. Independents? There's strong evidence they aren't supporting Biden.

Biden could win 100% of the Democratic vote in November and still lose the election.

Really, the country breaks down like this:

40% will always vote Democratic
40% will always vote Republican
20% can vote any other way

That 20% is what's killing Biden right now. A massive majority of that 20% is saying they'll vote third party.

So, say half of that 20% vote third party, you have 40 for Biden, 40 for Trump, 10 for the third parties. That leaves 10% who will decide the election. They may vote third party or Trump or Biden. But at the moment, there's little evidence any of that 20% wants a second term from Biden. The question is whether they want a Trump presidency even less.

[Walleye]

39. Do you think there is anyone else that could beat Trump at this point?

[MyNameIsJonas]

44. No.

I think Biden beats Trump. But I'm not as convinced as I was a year ago and that's scaring me.

But I don't see a Democrat who has the raw base to beat Trump or at least give up incumbency. You only do that if you have a rockstar like Obama but he's a once-in-a-lifetime candidate.

Everyone else is just running on competency.

[TwilightZone]

53. Third party candidates start off strong and always fade away.

The single exception is Ross Perot.

Many have started off in double digits. All of them ended up with a fraction of that. When people actually get to the voting booth, they switch to one of the two main candidates. There's very little evidence that will be Trump.

[MyNameIsJonas]

56. They don't need double-digits to cost Democrats an election.

Just look at 2000 and 2016.

Trump only marginally improved on Romney's margins in 2016. The difference is that Hillary did worse than Obama from 2012 and most that loss went to third party candidates.

Even if fewer than 10% of the undecided votes vote third party, it'll likely hurt Biden.

Just this century, Democrats have lost both elections where third parties collectively poll greater than 2%.

In 2004, 2008, 2012 and 2020, third party candidates had less than two-percent support nationally in the results.

In 2000? 3.39
In 2016? 2.77

That's not a lot - but in terms of margins? It is. Those margins are felt at the state level. If Biden lost one-point in every swing state he won to a third party candidate, he would have lost the election.

[ExWhoDoesntCare]

46. The same kind of people who 'thought' BS could beat TFG

In 2016. If you tried to tell them that TFG would have won in a landslide against him, they lose their tiny little minds.

[betsuni]

49. The other day I saw one of those Black Voters Abandon Democratic Ship stories on

a news program. Young woman: Biden promised student loans would be erased and that hasn't happened. Young man: Democrats pander to black people, promising all these things which are then forgotten, we are forgotten. Young people care more about who is the right person for the job more than about which is the right party.

Then the same network but different show, same two people and a few more saying broken promises, taken for granted, looks like Biden doesn't want the black vote, he's not here to serve us.

I think the GENOCIDE propaganda will be more successful with young people than BUT DADDY PROMISED. Now with Yemen it will be the classic DEMOCRATS ARE THE REAL WARMONGERS, which I remember from the Obama years, alarums about WWIII because Obama wanted to kill everybody in Yemen and do empire when those were NATO military things.

[Blue Owl]

51. The M$M wet dreamers

[JT45242]

52. Staying home to protest may happen with 20 somethings...

They could let perfection be the enemy of the good and stay home or vote for some third party loser throwing away their votes.

I don't fear them going to TFG, but an articulate green party candidate could woo young voters. Because I hear too often from my son's that the whole democratic party is in the pocket of corporations just like the Republicans. Especially, if the third party candidate is vocal about Israel killing civilians in Gaza.

[Rocknation]

54. Biden has a nearly a year in which to "improve quickly." Covid occurred during Trump's reign.

And FiveThirtyEight is now the property of ABC News.



P.S. "Worst net approval rating in history" sounds EXACTLY like something Trump would say!


Rocknation

[onecaliberal]

55. This is pure recon propaganda. They want this, but it's not gonna happen.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

57. The oligarchs who own the M$M will continue to push against Biden and democracy.